A plague death, floods’ health impact, vaccine injuries hearing at Senate today, Covid still low, and more
The Dose (July 15, 2025)
From a rare U.S. death from the plague to a rising Covid-19 variant and the hidden health toll of flooding. Plus, today’s high-stakes Senate hearing on vaccine injuries (and tips for navigating it). Here’s what’s new this week and what it means for you.
Disease weather report
Diseases are, overall, quiet out there.
Covid-19 remains low, despite mixed signals from different data sources. The variant NB.1.8.1 is rising and now makes up 44% of tests. Historically, once a variant hits 50%, a wave tends to follow. I still think we are headed for a summer bump, but time will tell.
Yes, the plague.
Over the weekend, Coconino County, Arizona, reported a death from pneumonic plague. This is the same bacteria behind the Black Death that killed tens of millions in 14th-century Europe. But the situation today is very different.
We know how to diagnose and treat it. Antibiotics can treat it, and hospitals in endemic regions are trained to spot and manage it. But timing is everything; the plague moves fast and can overwhelm the body in hours. In this case, the patient died the same day he arrived at the hospital.
It usually spreads through fleas after contact with infected animals like prairie dogs, rabbits, or rodents. Pets, especially cats, can also bring the infection into homes if they roam and hunt outdoors.
It’s regional. In Arizona, the bacteria circulate naturally in wildlife, which is why the disease is considered endemic to the region. It’s also endemic in Northern New Mexico, Southern Colorado, Nevada, California, and Southern Oregon.
Person-to-person spread is possible, but rare. Only pneumonic plague, when the lungs are involved, can spread through respiratory droplets. The last known U.S. case of this type of transmission was over a century ago.
It’s extremely rare. The U.S. reports between 0 and 17 cases per year. The last death was in 2021.
What does this mean? Simple precautions are needed in endemic areas: don’t handle wild or dead rodents, use DEET to prevent flea bites, and keep pets on flea prevention. This is also a reminder of why public health surveillance matters. Some diseases never disappear entirely, but awareness and timely care save lives.
Floods kill more than we can count
Our hearts are with the families affected by the devastating floods in Texas. We share in the horror at the loss of life, the count of which is still rising. I (Katelyn) was in Central Texas this past week, and it was devastating.
As communities begin the long road to recovery, it’s important to remember that the health impacts of flooding aren’t just immediate; they often unfold over weeks and months.
New research shows that between 2000 and 2020, the U.S. saw an estimated 22,000 additional deaths in the year following major floods. To put that in perspective: one day of flooding was linked to 8.3 excess deaths per 10 million people. These aren’t just drownings or injuries. Many of the deaths were from heart attacks, strokes, respiratory disease, and other indirect causes.
Why? The authors point to several pathways:
Stress disrupts homeostasis and increases risk of injury and disease.
Floods also increase mold in houses, increasing the risk of diseases.
After displacement, people living with chronic diseases, like heart disease or diabetes, can lose access to daily medications or access to healthcare, which can be life-threatening.
Infectious diseases can spread in post-flood environments.
Flood risk is increasing due to climate change. Heavier rainfall, more airborne moisture, and event intensity are to blame.
What does this mean for you? With climate change increasing flood risk, this is a call to fund disaster relief systems that maintain access to care. Individual preparation helps, but systemic readiness saves lives.
Today: Children’s Health Defense gets a Senate hearing
Today, the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee will hold a hearing titled “Examining Voices of the Vaccine Injured.”
This is a tough and deeply sensitive topic that requires empathy and care. While overwhelming evidence shows that vaccines’ benefits far outweigh their risks, no medical intervention is risk-free, and for those affected, even rare events feel personal and profound. A member at YLE has been injured by a vaccine and knows this far too well.
However, most of the witnesses at this hearing are not simply concerned parents. They are long-time anti-vaccine activists, some with a history of spreading false information. Yes, we need to acknowledge the real pain and suffering experienced by those who have had rare, adverse reactions to vaccines. But we also need to be transparent in highlighting that the people selected for this testimony have track records of long-standing agendas against vaccines.
The event is being promoted by Children’s Health Defense (CHD)—RFK Jr.’s organization, known for spreading anti-vaccine information—and will feature several of their regular witnesses. CHD is actively mobilizing around this hearing. Brian Hooker was promoting it on X yesterday, and it will stream on their network today. We expect it to gain significant traction within their circles.
Pushing back too hard can easily come across as cold or dismissive, making this especially difficult to navigate. We’ve pulled together some suggested tips in case you’re asked about the hearing or see it surface in your network. But, beyond anything else, remember: Most Americans, including most Republicans, support the safety of vaccines (97% of Democrats, 88% of Republicans, and 84% of MAGA supporters expressed support in a March 2025 poll.) (Below the text may be too small to see. Visit Instagram or Facebook to view it more clearly.)
The broader concern? This may be just the beginning of a coordinated push to dismantle the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP).
Here’s the background: In the 1980s, a wave of lawsuits over alleged vaccine injuries made it financially unsustainable for manufacturers to stay in the market. In response, Congress passed the National Childhood Vaccine Injury Act of 1986, which created the VICP—a no-fault compensation system funded by a small tax on each vaccine dose (not general taxpayer dollars). The system acknowledges that rare adverse events can happen, provides a pathway to compensation without lengthy litigation, and shields manufacturers from lawsuits that could again jeopardize vaccine supply.
Is it perfect? No. But it’s essential. Without it, we risk returning to a time when vaccine production collapsed.
Note: U.S. Preventive Services Task Force meeting canceled
The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) had a meeting scheduled for July 10. It was abruptly canceled.
Why this matters: USPSTF is a cornerstone of evidence-based preventive care in the U.S. This panel of volunteer experts evaluates which preventative services (like mammograms, cholesterol screenings, or HIV prevention) should be fully covered by insurers. Services with an A or B rating must, by law, be covered without copays.
USPSTF recommendations have directly improved health outcomes. For example, after the Task Force lowered the recommended age for colorectal cancer screening from 50 to 45 in 2021, screening rates rose. Pre-cancerous polyps were caught earlier, and cancer rates fell in younger adults. Gender disparities in screening also narrowed.
What it means: Preventive services remain covered, thanks to a Supreme Court ruling in June. And so far, no changes to services or coverage of those services have been made. But canceling the meeting could be a first step toward weakening or restructuring the panel. The USPSTF functions much like the vaccine advisory committee ACIP, which RFK Jr. recently overhauled.
Some bright spots
A few reasons for hope this week:
NIH cracks down on publishing fees. In a big win for open science, the NIH will now cap the fees that researchers must pay to make taxpayer-funded studies available to the public. Too often, critical health findings are locked behind paywalls. This move improves access for scientists, journalists, and the public.
Professional societies push for better vaccine access. Six professional medical societies (including the American Academy of Pediatrics) sued RFK Jr. and HHS, challenging recent decisions that restrict access to Covid-19 vaccines. A pregnant physician also joined the lawsuit, citing fear she won’t be able to get a COVID-19 shot this fall.
Philanthropists understand the importance of science and the practice of public health. After NIH cut $5 million in funding to a Yale-led mental health study focused on LGBTQ+ youth, Yale alumnus Jamie Marks stepped in to keep the project alive. The study helps families support LGBTQ+ teens (one of the strongest protective factors against depression and substance use). We’re relieved this essential work will continue. More here.
A global health win. The first malaria treatment was approved for newborns and infants last week.
Bottom line
Have a wonderful week! We will be back with more soon.
Love, YLE
Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is founded and operated by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom of two little girls. YLE is a public health newsletter that reaches over 380,000 people in more than 132 countries, with one goal: to translate the ever-evolving public health science so that people are well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below
 | A guest post by
|
I appreciate the information you share very very much! It is critical as a physician, parent and member of my community to be able to count on a trusted source and know you will keep me informed!
Thanks yle. And how the heck to make sense of this "97% of Democrats, 88% of Republicans, and 84% of MAGA supporters expressed support in a March 2025 poll" support of vaccines with any support for RFK the Lesser and his politics, policies, and lies?