Current State of Affairs: July 19
Things are changing fast
It’s been seven days since my last “Current State of Affairs” and a lot has happened.
“Pandemic of Unvaccinated”
This new wave has been coined the “Pandemic of the Unvaccinated” by the CDC, White House, and Twitter. Let’s remember that this includes children that don’t have the option to be vaccinated. And, while it is true (99% of hospitalized are unvaccinated), this branding assumes that no one else is impacted. The unvaccinated are infecting and killing people who lack sufficient immunity due to underlying medical conditions. Even among healthy people, the unvaccinated are testing the limits of the vaccine and causing unnecessary breakthrough cases. I think a better name would be a “Pandemic of Self Over Others”.
Cases
Nonetheless, we are clearly in a new wave. COVID19 cases are up 140%, with clear exponential growth (second graph). It’s the first time since January that cases are increasing in every state. The severity of the wave, though, is unevenly distributed and concentrated in the South.
Transmission also continues to rise. Just in 7 days, 4 additional states entered CDC’s “high transmission” (red) category and 8 additional states entered into “substantial transmission” (orange). There is only one state with “low transmission” (hi, Vermont).
And things are escalating quickly. Tennessee continues to take the lead with a 14-day +340% increase in cases. Alabama and Florida closely follow. Massachusetts, California, and Vermont came out of nowhere and now land on the top 10 states with the highest case growth. This is particularly concerning given that Vermont and Massachusetts are two of the vaccination leaders. It will be interesting to see how their outbreaks differ in regards to hospitalizations.
Testing
Test positivity rate has crossed the 5% threshold, which is not good. And, worse, the number of tests continue to decrease. This tells us that we are not testing nearly enough. We are flying blind. Low testing numbers is likely due to three factors:
Mass testing sites have been transformed into vaccine sites;
States are just not reporting tests consistently any more. Some states continue to report cases daily, but some report weekly and others are reporting every few days.
People are just not actively seeking out testing due to pandemic fatigue. For example, in Texas, the majority of people pare only getting tested once they get to the hospital, meaning it’s far too late to curb their spread during their most infectious point.
Hospitalizations
22,622 souls are currently hospitalized in the United States for COVID19, which is a 34% increase. Hospitalizations lag cases by 3-4 weeks, so this metric will continue to increase. Especially among states with low vaccination rates.
State-level hospitalization rates are strongly correlated with vaccination rates. Among the states that are well on their way (Florida, Arkansas, Nevada), hospitalizations are outpacing the winter numbers.
Deaths
Deaths are slowly rising too, but case fatality rate is holding on at around 2%. Early data from Scotland showed the Delta was twice as likely to result in hospitalization in unvaccinated individuals, but other data has shown no difference. We continue to track this closely. Interestingly, Bloomberg pointed out that COVID19 continues to be a leading cause of death in the United States.
That’s it for now. Stay safe. And have a wonderful week.
Love, YLE
Thank you as always for this. especially your first paragraph and remembering our children. The way kids aren't mentioned is adding so much pain to this strange/ upsetting re-entry time.
my/ my husband's question is this: is there quantifiable info about what exactly this does to the risk for unvaccinated children? If children were at lower risk of transmission and of infection before (and I'd like to see those numbers again), does this new state of affairs change that? What is the rate of transmission and "serious" infection (hopsitalization) or infection at all for those 12 and under compared to adults? What are your suggestions for parents to handle this while understanding the benefits for kids being back at school (and wanting that!) and knowing the vaccine is even further away for them? Thank you!!! You are one of the few things I can bear to read for the combo of science and calmness while being honest about the risks particularly from the perspective of someone with kids under 12.
-J
"This new wave has been coined the “Pandemic of the Unvaccinated” by the CDC, White House, and Twitter. Let’s remember that this includes children that don’t have the option to be vaccinated. And, while it is true (99% of hospitalized are unvaccinated), this branding assumes that no one else is impacted. The unvaccinated are infecting and killing people who lack sufficient immunity due to underlying medical conditions. Even among healthy people, the unvaccinated are testing the limits of the vaccine and causing unnecessary breakthrough cases. I think a better name would be a “Pandemic of Self Over Others”." (from above, your first paragraph.)
Thank you for this information, like washwords below, I am really interested in daily new cases across various age groups in Texas and by county. Is anyone producing data like this?