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Heather Williams's avatar

I was at the pediatrician yesterday, and he suggested that the low rates of flu in the last year would mean this year’s vaccine’s efficacy would be worse. His logic appears to be, since there was little flu circulating in the Southern Hemisphere to study, researchers wouldn’t be able to effectively anticipate what will be circulating here this season. Is there any validity to this?

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Boonton's avatar

I agree we should get our flu shots and I will too. A slightly alternative possibility I was hoping for is that the flu was given a massive knockout punch last year. For the first time in history the world did a massive shutdown right at the point where flu in the US is at its lowest point and on top of that a decline in travel slowed down the worldwide circulation of flu viruses. I have read they believe flu is actually extinct now in New Zealand and possibily Australia.

Likewise even today in the US we still have a lot of people avoiding indoors, using masks and the norm now is if you feel sick you stay home since going into school or work coughing, congested etc. is the best way to freak everyone out.

During my endless rhetorical battles with Covid truther types, I'm confronted with the "where did the flu go line". This is my standard answer, which no one ever seems to have a decent comeback against.

In this alternative I'm wondering if flu could be on the ropes for a long time before it comes back to where it was. Obviously if lots of people get vaccinated then that adds to the flu's woes in returning to its normal place. There is a possibility here the old models are not longer applicable because human behavior is not going to revert to the realitively innocent and unaware pre-2019 era.

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