Israel & the vaccine.

And what it means for the United States...

It’s an understatement to say that Israel is a well-oiled vaccination machine. Israel has blown all other countries out of the water with their vaccination rates. This is largely due to their universal healthcare system and small population. Nonetheless, their efforts have resulted in 69.46 Israelis per 100 vaccinated; that’s more than half of eligible Israelis (about 3.5 million people!). This is compared to the UAE (47 per 100), U.K (20 per 100), and U.S. (13.54 per 100).

Because of their aggressive vaccination campaign, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths are starting to plummet. Older and at-risk groups, the first to be vaccinated, are seeing a dramatic drop in illnesses. A study that came out today reported some pretty incredible numbers. Among Israelis 60 years and older…

• 89.9% had at least one dose of Pfizer

• 43.4% reduction in new cases

• 32% reduction in hospitalizations

We can see the impact of vaccinations on cases in the Figure below. Israelis 60+ were prioritized. Because of this, cases in this group decelerated the fastest. High risk people of all ages are now starting to get vaccinated, so we are seeing a step-down effect across age groups.

Thanks to Israel’s efforts, there are three pieces of fantastic news for the United States (and the rest of the world)…

1. Real-world results. Israel confirmed the results of Pfizer’s clinical trials. Among a subsample of 416,900 people that were vaccinated, only 254 had gotten Covid-19 a week after their second dose. ALL the cases were mild and this resulted in an efficacy rate of 91%. This is VERY good news because sometimes clinical trials do NOT reflect “real life”. Clinical trials are the golden standard because they deliver the highest level of evidence by limiting biases. One major downfall to clinical trials, though, is that they are “too” controlled and NOT a good reflection of what may happen in the real world. For example, in the real world, people may not go back for their second dose or go back too late or too early. The impact of this is never truly known until we start rolling out interventions. So, Israel’s data proves that the Pfizer vaccine has high efficacy even outside of controlled environments.

2. Transmission. There was a small sub-study conducted by MyHeritage (the largest vaccination lab in Israel). They compared the viral load of 1,000 COVID19 tests from December 2020 (before vaccinations began) to 1,000 COVID19 tests from January 2021 (when most over 60s in Israel had been vaccinated but few people under 60). The viral load was MUCH lower among COVID19 tests in January compared to December. This is welcoming news because this indicates that vaccines probably reduce the level of infection among those who are infected. We hypothesized vaccines would reduce transmission through reduced viral loads. This small study confirms our suspicions. It’s important to note, though, that this was not peer-reviewed and results were announced by the CEO of MyHeritage, so take it with a grain of salt. But I don’t have any reason to believe that they lied either. This is another small sign that transmission is reduced after vaccinations. Not 100%, but probably around 50-70%.

3. Variants. About 80% of Israel’s infections are B.1.1.7. And the vaccines are still working. This confirms Pfizer and Moderna’s petri dish studies that vaccines will still work against B.1.1.7. This is fantastic news for the United States, as this new variant is doubling every 10 days.

Go Israel!

Love, YLE