Month of June
Well June wasn’t pretty.
In the US, there were 21,937 COVID19 deaths and 826,350 cases.
June was especially bad in the South and West. Figure includes new cases per population in AZ, CA, FL, TX, and NY (as a control). I also included new cases during NY’s peak (in April- dotted line). At NY’s peak, 49 people per 100,000 had a confirmed case of COVID19 each DAY. This is the worst infected place in the United States. But this was also at their peak; during a FULL state-wide shut down. AZ is very close behind. As of yesterday, AZ had 41 people per 100,000 confirmed with COVID19 in ONE day. And they aren’t at their peak and don’t have a state-wide shut down. FL is really close behind.
I also included test positivity rate (TPR) in June. This is important to track. In March, the WHO suggested not opening a state/country until TPR (# of positive tests divided by # of total tests) was 5%. Testing does NOT have a direct benefit because there is no cure. However, there ARE a number of indirect benefits: 1) public health officials know the “true” rate of infection and can deploy resources to the right areas to stop spread; 2) psychologically if someone tests positive then they are more likely to quarantine (hopefully).
AZ, TX, and FL have some serious testing issues. This needs to be changed FAST. TX is in particular trouble with federal testing sites closing today. Interestingly, CA has a great, steady TPR, but COVID19 is spreading rapidly. So, this could mean that public health resources (like contact tracing) need to be more strategically deployed OR people are knowingly positive and still going out in public.
Let’s make July a bit prettier…please?
Love, your local epidemiologist
Data sources: COVID19 tracking project. DSHS. Graphs and analysis by yours truly. Some details (because I know some of you will ask).... State analyses are 7-day moving averages, which makes graphs much more smooth (and accurate) because of reporting behaviors. The testing data is ONLY confirmed viral tests. State figures are daily cases. Texas figures are cumulative cases.