We have a steady plateau in the United States, which is making public health officials very uneasy. First, we’ve idled at a high transmission rate. Our case rate today is higher than the peak of the first two waves. This is not how we want to enter the winter season— when coronaviruses typically thrive.
I do wonder if the plateau in some parts are due to the continued loosening of protocols counteracting any gains made through vaccines. On a micro-level where I live (Beaver Dam, WI), we have plateaued, even slightly increased, transmission rates over the past week. I don't think it is a coincidence that two weeks ago the public school district stopped requiring masks at the middle and high school levels.
Katelyn, honest question (coming from a molecular biologist who has been tracking this thing like a hound and taking every precaution): at what point can we start focusing MORE on deaths and hospitalizations and worry less about case counts? We know that the vaccine isn't sterilizing nor does it need to be. I wonder how crazy graphs would look that were tracking other common cold viruses. I still feel strongly RIGHT NOW that case counts and transmission are very important when you have such a significant portion of the world unvaccinated. But it doesn't seem like there are going to be any major campaigns to correct the damage causing the low vaccination rates. At some point, I feel like we have to transition from a state of alarm to a state of acceptance. I just wonder what defines that transition....
Is there any information or ANYTHING about under 5 vaccinations? Aren't we getting to the point where it's becoming unethical to withhold vaccinations from this group? There are children turning 2 soon who have never met an adult without a mask on, whose parents are suffering greatly from isolation, depression, and compliance fatigue. With 1.8 million doses a day and billions of people vaccinated, aren't we pretty sure that this is safe?
Hi, I feel going forward it would help if you could break your predictions based on areas with relatively higher vaccinations rates vs low vaccination rates, rather than just generalize at the country level. This way it could help folks still on the fence to maybe (praying it would) change their minds seeing the infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths between the 2 regions. One other question I have is, my state Massachusetts has relatively better vaccination rates so do you think the post holiday surge would be as bad or worse than last years? Thank you again for your time and efforts!
Is there something that shows the rate of immunity post-vaccine in kids? In other words, for the adult Pfizer/Moderna shows significant progress after just two weeks past the first dose, even though the full benefit isn't until 2 weeks after the second dose. What is the landscape for the kids dose?
1. The statement "What we do today will determine how we fare this Winter" is horribly depressing, given the way that substantial minority of the American public has responded to the pandemic up to now.
2. Is there any way to estimate the risk of a new variant of concern appearing over the next five or six months? Would data from Europe possibly provide some insights?
About breakthrough cases, is it too soon for data about the severity of such cases, or whether long covid is showing up in vaccinated people who get the virus?
In the post you mention "Time to get those boosters, folks." Question - in the U.S. are boosters still only for 65 and over / immunocompromised, or can anyone get a booster at this time? I am not sure I understand the current options / availability of boosters for someone under 65 that is not immunocompromised.
Great data, thank you. I've been concerned about the plateau, but for the organization I work with, we can't impact states' decisions on masks, vaccinations, etc. I had originally predicted we'd approximate population immunity for a period of time with naturally conferred immunity (mostly from delta) waning by around February, when the next variant decides to vacation in the United States. I might have been a little optimistic.
I do wonder if the plateau in some parts are due to the continued loosening of protocols counteracting any gains made through vaccines. On a micro-level where I live (Beaver Dam, WI), we have plateaued, even slightly increased, transmission rates over the past week. I don't think it is a coincidence that two weeks ago the public school district stopped requiring masks at the middle and high school levels.
Katelyn, honest question (coming from a molecular biologist who has been tracking this thing like a hound and taking every precaution): at what point can we start focusing MORE on deaths and hospitalizations and worry less about case counts? We know that the vaccine isn't sterilizing nor does it need to be. I wonder how crazy graphs would look that were tracking other common cold viruses. I still feel strongly RIGHT NOW that case counts and transmission are very important when you have such a significant portion of the world unvaccinated. But it doesn't seem like there are going to be any major campaigns to correct the damage causing the low vaccination rates. At some point, I feel like we have to transition from a state of alarm to a state of acceptance. I just wonder what defines that transition....
Is there any information or ANYTHING about under 5 vaccinations? Aren't we getting to the point where it's becoming unethical to withhold vaccinations from this group? There are children turning 2 soon who have never met an adult without a mask on, whose parents are suffering greatly from isolation, depression, and compliance fatigue. With 1.8 million doses a day and billions of people vaccinated, aren't we pretty sure that this is safe?
Hi, I feel going forward it would help if you could break your predictions based on areas with relatively higher vaccinations rates vs low vaccination rates, rather than just generalize at the country level. This way it could help folks still on the fence to maybe (praying it would) change their minds seeing the infection rates, hospitalizations and deaths between the 2 regions. One other question I have is, my state Massachusetts has relatively better vaccination rates so do you think the post holiday surge would be as bad or worse than last years? Thank you again for your time and efforts!
Is there something that shows the rate of immunity post-vaccine in kids? In other words, for the adult Pfizer/Moderna shows significant progress after just two weeks past the first dose, even though the full benefit isn't until 2 weeks after the second dose. What is the landscape for the kids dose?
A comment and a question.
1. The statement "What we do today will determine how we fare this Winter" is horribly depressing, given the way that substantial minority of the American public has responded to the pandemic up to now.
2. Is there any way to estimate the risk of a new variant of concern appearing over the next five or six months? Would data from Europe possibly provide some insights?
About breakthrough cases, is it too soon for data about the severity of such cases, or whether long covid is showing up in vaccinated people who get the virus?
Thank you! Is there a typo in “Our case rate today is higher than the peak of the first two waves.”? Should it be “than before the peak…”?
In the post you mention "Time to get those boosters, folks." Question - in the U.S. are boosters still only for 65 and over / immunocompromised, or can anyone get a booster at this time? I am not sure I understand the current options / availability of boosters for someone under 65 that is not immunocompromised.
Great data, thank you. I've been concerned about the plateau, but for the organization I work with, we can't impact states' decisions on masks, vaccinations, etc. I had originally predicted we'd approximate population immunity for a period of time with naturally conferred immunity (mostly from delta) waning by around February, when the next variant decides to vacation in the United States. I might have been a little optimistic.