Third measles death
This is not normal. For three reasons.
Another child has died of measles. An 8-year-old girl. Unvaccinated. No underlying health conditions.
This is unbelievably tragic—and entirely preventable. It’s also not normal in three important ways.
1. The number of deaths
This is the third death in just three months—something we haven’t seen in the U.S. in decades.
Since measles was declared eliminated in the U.S. in 2000, we’ve seen outbreaks—most notably in California (starting in Disneyland) and in New York among the Hasidic Jewish community. But even in those large outbreaks, we did not see multiple deaths like this.
Before this year, there had only been three measles deaths since 2000:
2015: A 28-year-old immunocompromised woman in Washington was exposed in a clinic.
2003: A 75-year-old traveler from California with pneumonia. The other was a 13-year-old immunocompromised child (post–bone marrow transplant) living between Illinois and Mexico.
Today’s situation is different. It’s younger, healthier kids. And it’s happening more often.
This raises a critical question: Are we seeing the full picture?
As of Saturday, there were 636 measles cases nationwide, 569 in the Panhandle outbreak alone, and 3 deaths. But that death toll doesn’t quite make sense.
Measles typically causes 1 to 3 deaths per 1,000 unvaccinated cases.
At that rate, 3 deaths would suggest somewhere between 1,000 and 3,000 more cases—not just 569.
This outbreak may be significantly underreported and the largest in decades. Other signs point in the same direction, including very sick hospitalized patients (reflecting delays in seeking care), and epidemiologists are encountering resistance to case investigations.
Of course, there’s another possibility: this could simply be a statistical anomaly. Three deaths among a few hundred cases isn’t impossible—it’s just extremely rare. We’ve seen similar situations before. In 1991, for example, an outbreak in Philadelphia caused 1,400 cases and 9 pediatric deaths. In that case, religious leaders discouraged medical care, relying on prayer instead.
But whether this is an undercount or an outlier, one thing is clear: we are in new, unsettling territory.
2. The boldness of a deceptive information campaign
Disinformation—false information intended to mislead— isn’t new, but it’s becoming more emboldened.
Children’s Health Defense (CHD), the anti-vaccine organization founded by Secretary Kennedy, no longer operates on the sidelines. They built a fake CDC website pushing false claims about the MMR vaccine and autism. They’ve deployed “crisis teams.” They’ve shown up at the same places as the CDC response team.
Now, Robert Malone—a prominent anti-vaccine figure closely aligned with CHD—broke the news of the death Saturday. This was a day before Texas, CDC, or HHS made any public statement. Whether this came from an unauthorized leak or a deliberate tip is unknown, but they are clearly trying to control the narrative.
Malone blames the child’s death on medical errors, not measles. It’s a textbook disinformation move—an attempt to redirect blame and obscure the preventability of the disease.
His piece is riddled with red flag techniques:
Obfuscation (deliberate use of complex language): He tosses around complex medical jargon to create a sense of expertise and intimidate non-clinical readers. But to any medical professional, the logic falls apart. You don’t get sepsis from “chronic tonsillitis” and “chronic mononucleosis.” Budesonide wouldn’t treat sepsis or ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome). He claims sedation caused “atelectasis,” which led to ARDS. In reality, measles causes pneumonia and respiratory failure.
Argument from authority (false authority): Malone cites an unnamed “Texas doctor” as his source, relying on the perceived credibility of a medical insider. But there’s no verification. It’s either a HIPAA violation, a game of telephone, or fabrication.
One-sided silence (exploiting HIPAA). He knows the hospital and treating physicians can’t respond because of HIPAA. He uses that silence as proof of guilt when, in fact, it’s a legal requirement meant to protect the patient and family.
Red herring (distraction from the real issue): Sure, some of the story may be partly true. Maybe there was a bacterial infection. Maybe she developed sepsis. Maybe measles made it worse. But even then, let’s be clear on the core issue—this child didn’t need to get measles in the first place.
Cherry-picking (misusing data to shift blame): This isn’t the first time anti-vaccine groups have tried to blame the doctors or hospitals. When the first death in this outbreak happened, they pushed the same narrative. The idea that 1 in 3 deaths are due to medical errors is based on a flawed, cherry-picked study.
This actively discourages people from seeking care, an incredibly dangerous message to send to vulnerable communities.
3. An uncoordinated federal response
Unlike the 2015 Disneyland outbreak in California or the 2019 outbreak in New York state—where federal, state, and local agencies worked together with clear communication and swift action—this time, it’s unclear what’s happening or who’s in charge.
Texas, to its credit, is stepping up—as it should. But this is now a multistate—and international—outbreak. It demands a federal response that’s unified, forward-looking, and transparent, and we’re not seeing that. CDC has a response team on the ground providing support, but it’s unclear how ASPR (helps coordinate disasters), FDA (given prescriptions are being used to treat off-label), the Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response at the White House, or even the State Department (given the international aspects of this outbreak) are working together, if at all.
This also includes confusing talking points from Secretary Kennedy. Yesterday, Kennedy mentioned that the MMR vaccine was effective on X. But he left out that it was safe and hasn’t recommended universal vaccination. After a few hours, he followed that up by praising doctors in the community for treating measles with treatments that have no evidence behind them.
This is not how we stop an outbreak.
Bottom line
Children are dying from a disease we already eliminated. We know how to stop it—vaccinations. But this outbreak is not slowing down as it’s fueled by falsehoods and mistrust and compounded by a lack of strong leadership.
Love, YLE
Your Local Epidemiologist (YLE) is founded and operated by Dr. Katelyn Jetelina, MPH PhD—an epidemiologist, wife, and mom of two little girls. Dr. Jetelina is also a senior scientific consultant to a number of non-profit organizations. YLE reaches over 360,000 people in over 132 countries with one goal: “Translate” the ever-evolving public health science so that people will be well-equipped to make evidence-based decisions. This newsletter is free to everyone, thanks to the generous support of fellow YLE community members. To support the effort, subscribe or upgrade below:
I am so disheartened that decades of solid public health work are being flushed down the toilet by a few powerful people that think they have the answers...I don't know how they sleep at night.
Thank you for your ongoing trustworthy reporting. These are dangerous times for public health and so much else.