The importance of vaccines cannot be stressed enough. As a retired pediatrician I feel that one problem is that these diseases are anecdotes to young parents. They have never met anyone who had Polio, Measles, or Diphtheria and are skeptical of the need for vaccines. My practice had a firm rule either be fully immunized by 24 months or find another doctor. We spent hours debating vaccines with people with opinions but no knowledge. In the ere before vaccines at least 10% of all newborns never celebrated their second birthday.
It’s good these days to find sources of accurate information that make me feel informed yet not panicked. Thank you for your work, your pragmatic approach, your reasonable tone and your compassion for public health.♥️
The principle of Occam's Razor - that the simplest explanation is most likely the correct one - leads me to believe the SARS-CoV-2 virus escaped from the Wuhan virology lab due to a lapse in safety practices.
I do not believe it was an intentional release - I do not believe it was some sort of biological weapon attack, since it arguably caused China more harm than any other country on Earth, an outcome that would have been entirely predictable in advance.
I have professional knowledge of exposures that have taken place in similar US BioSafety Level IV labs. Those exposures did not result in any infections nor spread of the high-consequence pathogens...but the potential was real.
I think the exposure in the Wuhan lab did result in infections - first among the staff, then later their households, then on to the popular Wuhan wet market, where both people and live animals were infected, serving as superspreader nidus.
Again, I believe this was accidental and not a planned act of aggression. The fact that this accidental aspect of the release is downplayed or never mentioned is regrettable, since leaving it out only raises the emotional and political temperature of the issue to an unhelpful degree.
Meh, that's not really how Occam's Razor works. The earliest cases were associated with the wet market, so that would make it the simpler explanation. There's a difference between "simple" and "slick". Occam's Razor emphasizes the former. Common pitfall.
But that's exactly why you're misunderstanding Occam's Razor - often the simplest explanation is to shrug your shoulders and chalk it up to randomness. Improbable things happen - rarely, but they happen. This was the only major pandemic in my lifetime. Adding an extra "character" into the mix - however tempting and exciting the story becomes - is the exact antithesis of Occam's Razor.
The H1N1 influenza strain caused a pandemic in 2009.
You are adding the complex, unexplained and "random" element when you claim the virus arose de novo in the wet market. Not Occam's Razor as I understand it.
You might want to look into RaTG13 and the S1/S2 PRRA insertion and the furin cleavage site. In short, SARS-CoV2 appears to be a horseshoe bat virus that was modified to make human susceptible to it and in doing so would have made it unlikely to infect bats. There's also the matter of that the horseshoe bats are native to an area pretty far from Wuhan and that this virus arose during a season when they would be hibernating. I don't understand why there is any controversy over the origins. I also don't understand why Lord Fauci and several others aren't chained up in a prison cells.
Lab leak origin also explains why we panicked disproportionately to the actual threat of COVID19. Specifically:
1) Why the CCP created and disseminated those early videos of people collapsing dead in the streets of Wuhan (they were scared of the 'unknown' of what happened at the WIV when they sealed the records in sept 2019)
2) Why the hospitals in Wuhan started sending specimens to Shi Zengli from pneumonia patients in late 2019 specifically looking for a SARS variant - this is atypical behavior - hospitals don't really care whether your pneumonia came from after bacterial infections are ruled out. They don't care which of the thousands of respiratory viruses caused it. This was unusual behavior to have area hospitals coordinating with the WIV before COVID19 was found searching for COVID19.
3) Why the CCP panicked and acted so swiftly before facts were known. They behaved as if it was unnatural with potential to be far deadlier than all the mostly benign coronaviruses which have coexisted with us for 300 million years.
4) Why Fauci panicked. If Fauci believed this was a naturally occurring virus like SARS03, MERS, or any of the thousands of coronaviruses which have existed with man for millions of years, he would have acted like he did during SARS03, during MERS, during Swine Flu, etc - calm and urging us not to panic, live life normally.
Something about this scared him, and Occam's Razor, he was scared because he thought it was a modified SARS virus using GoF which he openly supported. (Anyone thinking 'He was scared because it was self evident COVID19 was so dangerous' - no, it was from the beginning similar to all the other coronaviruses we are unconcerned with - it posed almost no risk to anyone under 65 and had an IFR of ~.00038)
5) Why Fauci acted guilty - making the public speaking rounds on podcasts and CNN laughing lab leak as "conspiracy theory", while (thanks to FOIA) privately showing high concern of it being a lab leak and coordinating behind the scenes an effort to suppress that evidence while promoting Proximal Origins - then pretending Proximal Origins came about organically and he wasn't aware of it until it was published.
TL;DR, whether it came about naturally or lab leak, the leaders behaved as if they believed it was leaked from a lab, which would explain why they panicked.
Lots went wrong, especially in the area of Crisis Communication.
I must point out, however, that is was the very fact that so much about the virus was unknown that made it prudent to take all available precautions to keep the viral prevalence manageable while also maintaining production, distribution and access to vital goods and services.
This required a balancing act where no decision maker had quantitative data / a paradigm that allowed us to calculate how much of each countermeasure was needed to achieve a manageable result.
"Manageable," by the way, was not about mortality rate, rather it was about serious morbidity rate - how many people ended up in the hospital. When hospitals get full, they "go on diversion," meaning not accepting ambulances or emergency transfers.
My state saw four distinct spikes during the emergency phases of the pandemic - each with a subtly different cause and yet similar resolution (increased uptake of effective preventive measures). Each spike taxed our state's hospital system to near breaking; some regions did, in fact, have all of their hospitals on diversion for brief periods.
The fear came from the facts: this was a novel virus, meaning that no population on earth had any level of pre-existing immunity. This is stark in that even in the case of "novel" influenza viruses, there is typically some cross-immunity in the population due to historical experience with existing strains.
I recall with some amusement - though it was anything but funny at the time - the obsession in the media and therefore the public over "where the first case was going to be." We knew it was here already before the first case was identified. Studies using blood samples taken before the official first US case demonstrate the pandemic virus had already reached the west coast by then.
We knew that a global pandemic was inevitable. The goal was to figure out to manage it to where we would be able to resist, endure and prevail.
Recall, too, that for the longest time, the majority expert opinion was the people were not infectious unless they had symptoms. This assumption was based on known coronaviruses. As knowledge grew, however, we learned that pre-symptomatic patients were indeed infectious and even more profoundly, that there were many infected individuals with minimal to no symptoms who were infectious nonetheless.
My main theme remains that the public's widespread disappointment (trying to be diplomatic) with our pandemic response was a failure of effective Crisis Communication right out of the gate.
Among the cardinal principles of effective Crisis Communication is for experts / authorities to be clear about what is know and what is unknown and prepare the public for the fact that guidance will change in the light of new information and that this is a strength and not a weakness.
"...so much about the virus was unknown that made it prudent to take all available precautions to keep the viral prevalence manageable while also maintaining production, distribution and access to vital goods and services."
That's true of every new virus. Yet until Covid19, we always follow "First, do no harm". We don't induce panic, we don't lockdown, we don't close schools, we don't delay medical care, we don't cause disruption to supply chain, hospitals, the foundations of society.
For every pandemic since modern medicine, we have never, ever panicked like this.
There was so much unknown about Hong Kong Flu, H5N1, SARS03, H1N1, MERS, Zika, etc and we didn't lose our minds and close beaches. We acted rational.
The question is, why now? Why did we panic over this particular Coronavirus and not the thousands before it?
Occams' Razor - We panicked because China panicked. China panicked because they realized a chimeric virus escaped the WIV in September 2019, so they set about looking for signs of it (hence having hospitals send samples from patients to Shi Zengli), and that's why they made the ludicrous videos of people collapsing in the streets, so they could get people on board with being welded inside their apartments.
And when Fauci saw that it escaped from the WIV, using techniques he promoted, funded to a degree by his department, he really panicked, because the unknowns for a Chimeric virus were incomparable with the unknowns of Zika and your average SARS.
I think this will be a "black swan" event, though. I don't think, at least in my lifetime, we will ever act irrationally like this and close schools, mask children, pre-emptively shut down healthcare. At least I hope. Seems the masses, the media, politicians, etc are doing the same thing did with every other failed "War on ______" where the solution only caused more harm (see, Vietnam War, War on Drugs, War on Terror) - absconding from their role in promoting the war and championing the failed ideas.
You can see this for example in how well received the critical Covid policy book "In Covid's Wake" is by Ezra Klein, NYT, Guardian, WaPo, etc
Yes, we should have done what we did for every other coronavirus, flu, norovirus, adenovirus, etc - nothing.
5 years of data later, we see that all the "rain dances" we performed - whether it was closing beaches, putting children in paw paw patrol masks, halting "elective" medicine, closing schools, arrows in grocery stores, on and on, it didn't matter. Predictions of these measures failed.
Doing the least had either the same or often a better outcome. The excess mortality tells us this.
"Sweden won, South Korea lost." (it's a reductionist take, but sums up nicely the difficult pandemicists are in - the models they predicted would work, actually failed; while the models the predicted would fail, worked)
Not surprisingly, the strategy that was effective for the last 100 years was best here, too.
We won't see this repeated in our lifetimes, thankfully, I think we learned our lesson on the dangers of spreading fear and disrupting society - even if it is only a quiet admittance.
Foolishly didn't record the URL or source, Read that a bat virus similar to the original covid found. This contradicts the claim that covid DNA not similar to any wild virus.
AND what does YLE think of the McCullough foundation?
I am no professional virologist, but I think I have sufficient knowledge to point out that many viruses have "similar" genes - in the case of SARS-Cov-2, positive-sense single stranded RNA. All viruses of the family Coronaviridae are genetically related.
One would want to know exactly how similar were the wild bat genes to SARS-CoV-2 and where those bats were recovered from. I recall reading that a similar genetic sequence was indeed found in wild bats in a cave some considerable distance away from Wuhan. I believe this was one bit of evidence that persuaded some to say that SARS-CoV-2 had a wild origin, despite the fact that it was not clear how those wild genes got to Wuhan.
I have also read, however, that the original SARS-Cov-2 strain that caused the pandemic contained more than one tell-tale sequence that virologists frequently use in their research, suggesting it was not a sequence that evolved naturally.
BTW, as I understand it, all or nearly all modern virological research is "gain of function" research. That is, the researchers manipulate the viral genome and see what functional aspects of the virus change. Such changes could have potential benefit, as in vaccine development, or the changes could lead to weaponization. I fault the very, very flawed Crisis Communication at the national level for not being transparent about what this nomenclature really means.
That lack of clear Crisis Communication enabled detractors to say the official narrative was false.
Lastly, as with much of our perspective on the pandemic, there are powerful political motivations at work. At the outset of the pandemic, I believe there was grave concern that linking the virus directly to the Wuhan lab would lead to accusations of biological warfare by the Chinese. Under current political circumstances, such blame is seen as useful in some circles.
As I wrote above, I believe the SARS-CoV-2 virus originated in the Wuhan lab and the leak was due to a failure of adequate safety procedures. One thing my experience with exposures in domestic BSL IV labs taught me: these labs do not send their best and brightest into the highest-risk environments. The US workers who were exposed were genuinely shocked to learn the consequences of the exposure, e.g., quarantine and observation.
Hi Missy, thanks for the good question. Yes we are monitoring this. The affected program is the "Food Emergency Response Network (FERN) Proficiency Testing Program" - a joint program between FDA and USDA that encompasses state/regional food testing labs that help detect and respond to contaminants and outbreaks. HHS cuts have led FERN to suspend its testing program until at least September 30.
It's a nuanced discussion, but I do think this is concerning. While states have their own food safety protocols, they often work in compliance and collaboration with USDA/FDA. The Food Safety Modernization Act emphasized this collaboration for food safety as a shared responsibility and federal agencies have an important role in leadership, technical and financial support.
This suspension means no more routine quality control testing for food contaminants at these labs – which can interfere with the lab’s readiness, accreditation and potentially interfere with proper surveillance and increase risk for outbreaks. States can explore outsourcing these inspections, which could certainly be an effective alternative but that will take time and resources.
At the end of the day, only time will tell the downstream effects of suspending these inspections, depending on how states respond. But unfortunately, I think it serves yet another example of the reality of the these sweeping federal cuts and how the consequences could directly affect our food and communities.
I share Missy’s concern, and am wondering if we should pause eating certain foods (that is, ones where a lack of adequate oversight could lead to serious illness/death). We are flexible and happy to swap higher risk foods for alternatives, if warranted.
I hear you. While I can't give you individual advice here because each state has different food safety protocols and different local food commodities, you can try reaching out to your department of public health or your regional FERN coordinator (https://www.fernlab.org/).
Thank you as always. Do you have any recommendations for resources now that the sources we have traditionally looked to may not be reflective of best science?
It is the news front line of the International Society of Infectious Disease (ISID). Their new website (this month) has a variety of subscription options ranging from free to institutional.
In regard to your question on alternative vaccine requests. I can only speak to my experience as a neonatologist in the NICU, hospital settings. I personally would work with parents requesting an alternative schedule. I felt it was more successful at achieving compliance for the premature infants at high risk for serious illness.
I don't know how many of you follow https://substack.com/@sarscov2covid19 but below is what was posted a few days ago. Given the nature of the information they say that they are getting it is hard to confirm- hardly what we scientists want but given the times that we are in, I wanted to share it and let you look at that substack and decide for yourselves. It addresses Dr. Jetelina's topic of bird flu being "quiet".
"Just spoke with my CDC sources. They were in tears.
Budgets cut. RFJK has ordered them not to publicize bird flu symptoms in exposed workers. Not to test them. Not to speak.
They know people are getting sick. And they’re being forced to stay silent.
This is not just a cover-up. It's cruelty."
And
"I am exposing the Trump administration and will continue to do so through direct, firsthand reports from my CDC sources.
I will keep you informed about Bird Flu, COVID-19, Tuberculosis, Measles, and other infectious diseases bringing you the truth about what’s happening behind closed doors at the CDC, and what’s being hidden from the public.
I will continue to leak the truth.
Right now, farmers showing symptoms of Bird Flu are not being tested by direct order of RFJK.
This is not just negligence. This is the murder of public health in front of our eyes.
I need your support. Please follow my page and spread the word. The people deserve to know the truth, and I will not stay silent."
And
"BREAKING: H5N1 Bird Flu Causes Encephalitis in 8-Year-Old in Vietnam
An 8-year-old in Vietnam has developed encephalitis linked to H5N1 avian influenza.
PCR testing confirmed A/H5 virus in the cerebrospinal fluid, indicating brain infection."
Healthy dose of skepticism: while I am certainly worried about people in the administration minimizing H5N1, most public health investigations are being driven by local and state health departments. I have not heard of any attempt by CDC/HHS to stifle locals from investigating bird flu outbreaks, monitoring workers with symptoms or test them. Some state labs have their own ability to do at least H5 testing. All that to say RFK can't order local jurisdictions to not test people.
Thanks again for this update, especially about allergy season. There may be an opportunity to suggest climate warming to deniers who complain about the intensity and duration of their allergies. In my MAGA heavy region, gardening is very popular hobby.
Perhaps another time when you mention ticks, you could talk about the rising numbers of Alpha-Gal syndrome. Plus two additional ticks (3, now) carry the sugar to give you this allergy to mammals. BTW, it's annoying to have it because it's not just mammal meat to avoid, but things like bovine gelcaps or medical ingredients, stuff in shampoo, marshmallows -- things you'd never think would make you sick. When people call it the "red meat" allergy they make it sound like an easy thing to deal with. I guess you can tell I've got it, right?
I hope Dr. J follows up on this. Our nephews were Boy Scouts, and I remember hearing about this “super weird” thing that happened to a few kids in their troop, where they got tick bites while camping, then suddenly couldn't eat hamburgers anymore. That was about 16 years ago. Fast forward to now, and the phenomenon is understood, but still not widely known. Especially not that things like a gelcap could trigger a reaction.
Don't forget sunburns!!! I made the unforced error of spending lots of time outside yesterday in the warm sun, short sleeves, no sunscreen. Still feeling it today - it's having a systemic effect.
A lean heavily toward the GOF/lab leak origins of Covid. I don’t trust the CCP who’s been obstructing the international investigations from the very beginning. Covid was circulating much earlier than what has been reported in the MSM, as early as October 2019 at the military games in Wuhan where several of our soldiers who participated came down with it. Regarding its origin, there is no question our NIH through EcoHealth Alliance funded GOF research there. You can read about the first cases here:
The importance of vaccines cannot be stressed enough. As a retired pediatrician I feel that one problem is that these diseases are anecdotes to young parents. They have never met anyone who had Polio, Measles, or Diphtheria and are skeptical of the need for vaccines. My practice had a firm rule either be fully immunized by 24 months or find another doctor. We spent hours debating vaccines with people with opinions but no knowledge. In the ere before vaccines at least 10% of all newborns never celebrated their second birthday.
A really interesting point that I’ve never seen raised.
It’s good these days to find sources of accurate information that make me feel informed yet not panicked. Thank you for your work, your pragmatic approach, your reasonable tone and your compassion for public health.♥️
I second this! Really well stated, thanks.
The principle of Occam's Razor - that the simplest explanation is most likely the correct one - leads me to believe the SARS-CoV-2 virus escaped from the Wuhan virology lab due to a lapse in safety practices.
I do not believe it was an intentional release - I do not believe it was some sort of biological weapon attack, since it arguably caused China more harm than any other country on Earth, an outcome that would have been entirely predictable in advance.
I have professional knowledge of exposures that have taken place in similar US BioSafety Level IV labs. Those exposures did not result in any infections nor spread of the high-consequence pathogens...but the potential was real.
I think the exposure in the Wuhan lab did result in infections - first among the staff, then later their households, then on to the popular Wuhan wet market, where both people and live animals were infected, serving as superspreader nidus.
Again, I believe this was accidental and not a planned act of aggression. The fact that this accidental aspect of the release is downplayed or never mentioned is regrettable, since leaving it out only raises the emotional and political temperature of the issue to an unhelpful degree.
One guy's opinion.
Meh, that's not really how Occam's Razor works. The earliest cases were associated with the wet market, so that would make it the simpler explanation. There's a difference between "simple" and "slick". Occam's Razor emphasizes the former. Common pitfall.
My version explains how the virus got to the wet market.
But that's exactly why you're misunderstanding Occam's Razor - often the simplest explanation is to shrug your shoulders and chalk it up to randomness. Improbable things happen - rarely, but they happen. This was the only major pandemic in my lifetime. Adding an extra "character" into the mix - however tempting and exciting the story becomes - is the exact antithesis of Occam's Razor.
The H1N1 influenza strain caused a pandemic in 2009.
You are adding the complex, unexplained and "random" element when you claim the virus arose de novo in the wet market. Not Occam's Razor as I understand it.
Sorry, man, randomness is ALWAYS the simpler explanation. You seem to be confusing simplicity with poetry.
"Randomness" is a convenient non-explaination that can be applied to anything and everything when the true causal relationships are not acknowledged.
I notice the majority of your arguments are either ad hominem or factually wrong.
I'm dropping the mic. Adios, Amigo.
You might want to look into RaTG13 and the S1/S2 PRRA insertion and the furin cleavage site. In short, SARS-CoV2 appears to be a horseshoe bat virus that was modified to make human susceptible to it and in doing so would have made it unlikely to infect bats. There's also the matter of that the horseshoe bats are native to an area pretty far from Wuhan and that this virus arose during a season when they would be hibernating. I don't understand why there is any controversy over the origins. I also don't understand why Lord Fauci and several others aren't chained up in a prison cells.
Lab leak origin also explains why we panicked disproportionately to the actual threat of COVID19. Specifically:
1) Why the CCP created and disseminated those early videos of people collapsing dead in the streets of Wuhan (they were scared of the 'unknown' of what happened at the WIV when they sealed the records in sept 2019)
2) Why the hospitals in Wuhan started sending specimens to Shi Zengli from pneumonia patients in late 2019 specifically looking for a SARS variant - this is atypical behavior - hospitals don't really care whether your pneumonia came from after bacterial infections are ruled out. They don't care which of the thousands of respiratory viruses caused it. This was unusual behavior to have area hospitals coordinating with the WIV before COVID19 was found searching for COVID19.
3) Why the CCP panicked and acted so swiftly before facts were known. They behaved as if it was unnatural with potential to be far deadlier than all the mostly benign coronaviruses which have coexisted with us for 300 million years.
4) Why Fauci panicked. If Fauci believed this was a naturally occurring virus like SARS03, MERS, or any of the thousands of coronaviruses which have existed with man for millions of years, he would have acted like he did during SARS03, during MERS, during Swine Flu, etc - calm and urging us not to panic, live life normally.
Something about this scared him, and Occam's Razor, he was scared because he thought it was a modified SARS virus using GoF which he openly supported. (Anyone thinking 'He was scared because it was self evident COVID19 was so dangerous' - no, it was from the beginning similar to all the other coronaviruses we are unconcerned with - it posed almost no risk to anyone under 65 and had an IFR of ~.00038)
5) Why Fauci acted guilty - making the public speaking rounds on podcasts and CNN laughing lab leak as "conspiracy theory", while (thanks to FOIA) privately showing high concern of it being a lab leak and coordinating behind the scenes an effort to suppress that evidence while promoting Proximal Origins - then pretending Proximal Origins came about organically and he wasn't aware of it until it was published.
TL;DR, whether it came about naturally or lab leak, the leaders behaved as if they believed it was leaked from a lab, which would explain why they panicked.
Lots went wrong, especially in the area of Crisis Communication.
I must point out, however, that is was the very fact that so much about the virus was unknown that made it prudent to take all available precautions to keep the viral prevalence manageable while also maintaining production, distribution and access to vital goods and services.
This required a balancing act where no decision maker had quantitative data / a paradigm that allowed us to calculate how much of each countermeasure was needed to achieve a manageable result.
"Manageable," by the way, was not about mortality rate, rather it was about serious morbidity rate - how many people ended up in the hospital. When hospitals get full, they "go on diversion," meaning not accepting ambulances or emergency transfers.
My state saw four distinct spikes during the emergency phases of the pandemic - each with a subtly different cause and yet similar resolution (increased uptake of effective preventive measures). Each spike taxed our state's hospital system to near breaking; some regions did, in fact, have all of their hospitals on diversion for brief periods.
The fear came from the facts: this was a novel virus, meaning that no population on earth had any level of pre-existing immunity. This is stark in that even in the case of "novel" influenza viruses, there is typically some cross-immunity in the population due to historical experience with existing strains.
I recall with some amusement - though it was anything but funny at the time - the obsession in the media and therefore the public over "where the first case was going to be." We knew it was here already before the first case was identified. Studies using blood samples taken before the official first US case demonstrate the pandemic virus had already reached the west coast by then.
We knew that a global pandemic was inevitable. The goal was to figure out to manage it to where we would be able to resist, endure and prevail.
Recall, too, that for the longest time, the majority expert opinion was the people were not infectious unless they had symptoms. This assumption was based on known coronaviruses. As knowledge grew, however, we learned that pre-symptomatic patients were indeed infectious and even more profoundly, that there were many infected individuals with minimal to no symptoms who were infectious nonetheless.
My main theme remains that the public's widespread disappointment (trying to be diplomatic) with our pandemic response was a failure of effective Crisis Communication right out of the gate.
Among the cardinal principles of effective Crisis Communication is for experts / authorities to be clear about what is know and what is unknown and prepare the public for the fact that guidance will change in the light of new information and that this is a strength and not a weakness.
"...so much about the virus was unknown that made it prudent to take all available precautions to keep the viral prevalence manageable while also maintaining production, distribution and access to vital goods and services."
That's true of every new virus. Yet until Covid19, we always follow "First, do no harm". We don't induce panic, we don't lockdown, we don't close schools, we don't delay medical care, we don't cause disruption to supply chain, hospitals, the foundations of society.
For every pandemic since modern medicine, we have never, ever panicked like this.
There was so much unknown about Hong Kong Flu, H5N1, SARS03, H1N1, MERS, Zika, etc and we didn't lose our minds and close beaches. We acted rational.
The question is, why now? Why did we panic over this particular Coronavirus and not the thousands before it?
Occams' Razor - We panicked because China panicked. China panicked because they realized a chimeric virus escaped the WIV in September 2019, so they set about looking for signs of it (hence having hospitals send samples from patients to Shi Zengli), and that's why they made the ludicrous videos of people collapsing in the streets, so they could get people on board with being welded inside their apartments.
And when Fauci saw that it escaped from the WIV, using techniques he promoted, funded to a degree by his department, he really panicked, because the unknowns for a Chimeric virus were incomparable with the unknowns of Zika and your average SARS.
I think this will be a "black swan" event, though. I don't think, at least in my lifetime, we will ever act irrationally like this and close schools, mask children, pre-emptively shut down healthcare. At least I hope. Seems the masses, the media, politicians, etc are doing the same thing did with every other failed "War on ______" where the solution only caused more harm (see, Vietnam War, War on Drugs, War on Terror) - absconding from their role in promoting the war and championing the failed ideas.
You can see this for example in how well received the critical Covid policy book "In Covid's Wake" is by Ezra Klein, NYT, Guardian, WaPo, etc
Your solution then, was to do nothing.
Yes, we should have done what we did for every other coronavirus, flu, norovirus, adenovirus, etc - nothing.
5 years of data later, we see that all the "rain dances" we performed - whether it was closing beaches, putting children in paw paw patrol masks, halting "elective" medicine, closing schools, arrows in grocery stores, on and on, it didn't matter. Predictions of these measures failed.
Doing the least had either the same or often a better outcome. The excess mortality tells us this.
"Sweden won, South Korea lost." (it's a reductionist take, but sums up nicely the difficult pandemicists are in - the models they predicted would work, actually failed; while the models the predicted would fail, worked)
Not surprisingly, the strategy that was effective for the last 100 years was best here, too.
We won't see this repeated in our lifetimes, thankfully, I think we learned our lesson on the dangers of spreading fear and disrupting society - even if it is only a quiet admittance.
Your assertion that we do nothing or have done nothing about current and prior viral outbreaks / epidemics / pandemics is demonstrably false.
BTW, this scenario of lab to staff to households to wet market explains why the virus could be recovered from animals sold there.
Foolishly didn't record the URL or source, Read that a bat virus similar to the original covid found. This contradicts the claim that covid DNA not similar to any wild virus.
AND what does YLE think of the McCullough foundation?
I am no professional virologist, but I think I have sufficient knowledge to point out that many viruses have "similar" genes - in the case of SARS-Cov-2, positive-sense single stranded RNA. All viruses of the family Coronaviridae are genetically related.
One would want to know exactly how similar were the wild bat genes to SARS-CoV-2 and where those bats were recovered from. I recall reading that a similar genetic sequence was indeed found in wild bats in a cave some considerable distance away from Wuhan. I believe this was one bit of evidence that persuaded some to say that SARS-CoV-2 had a wild origin, despite the fact that it was not clear how those wild genes got to Wuhan.
I have also read, however, that the original SARS-Cov-2 strain that caused the pandemic contained more than one tell-tale sequence that virologists frequently use in their research, suggesting it was not a sequence that evolved naturally.
BTW, as I understand it, all or nearly all modern virological research is "gain of function" research. That is, the researchers manipulate the viral genome and see what functional aspects of the virus change. Such changes could have potential benefit, as in vaccine development, or the changes could lead to weaponization. I fault the very, very flawed Crisis Communication at the national level for not being transparent about what this nomenclature really means.
That lack of clear Crisis Communication enabled detractors to say the official narrative was false.
Lastly, as with much of our perspective on the pandemic, there are powerful political motivations at work. At the outset of the pandemic, I believe there was grave concern that linking the virus directly to the Wuhan lab would lead to accusations of biological warfare by the Chinese. Under current political circumstances, such blame is seen as useful in some circles.
As I wrote above, I believe the SARS-CoV-2 virus originated in the Wuhan lab and the leak was due to a failure of adequate safety procedures. One thing my experience with exposures in domestic BSL IV labs taught me: these labs do not send their best and brightest into the highest-risk environments. The US workers who were exposed were genuinely shocked to learn the consequences of the exposure, e.g., quarantine and observation.
I read an article the other day indicating that the FDA would not be performing as stringent food safety testing (https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-fda-suspends-food-safety-quality-checks-after-staff-cuts-2025-04-17/). I later saw a subsequent story saying some food safety testing will continue.
Do you know anything about this and what we can expect (or what's true and what's not)? Thank you!
Hi Missy, thanks for the good question. Yes we are monitoring this. The affected program is the "Food Emergency Response Network (FERN) Proficiency Testing Program" - a joint program between FDA and USDA that encompasses state/regional food testing labs that help detect and respond to contaminants and outbreaks. HHS cuts have led FERN to suspend its testing program until at least September 30.
It's a nuanced discussion, but I do think this is concerning. While states have their own food safety protocols, they often work in compliance and collaboration with USDA/FDA. The Food Safety Modernization Act emphasized this collaboration for food safety as a shared responsibility and federal agencies have an important role in leadership, technical and financial support.
This suspension means no more routine quality control testing for food contaminants at these labs – which can interfere with the lab’s readiness, accreditation and potentially interfere with proper surveillance and increase risk for outbreaks. States can explore outsourcing these inspections, which could certainly be an effective alternative but that will take time and resources.
At the end of the day, only time will tell the downstream effects of suspending these inspections, depending on how states respond. But unfortunately, I think it serves yet another example of the reality of the these sweeping federal cuts and how the consequences could directly affect our food and communities.
Thank you so much for being a sane voice in these trying times.
I share Missy’s concern, and am wondering if we should pause eating certain foods (that is, ones where a lack of adequate oversight could lead to serious illness/death). We are flexible and happy to swap higher risk foods for alternatives, if warranted.
I hear you. While I can't give you individual advice here because each state has different food safety protocols and different local food commodities, you can try reaching out to your department of public health or your regional FERN coordinator (https://www.fernlab.org/).
That is very helpful advice, thank you! I will do that tomorrow. :)
I really like the idea of the webinar about effective ways to contact representatives. Please do that!
Regarding the "newly redesigned" Covid.gov website, it's worth noting that "Covid.gov" *doesn't exist* anymore. Instead, we're redirected to "whitehouse.gov". Disgraceful!
Good point. It's also worth noting that the feds have a terrifying amount of power over the top level domains ".gov" and ".edu"
Thank you as always. Do you have any recommendations for resources now that the sources we have traditionally looked to may not be reflective of best science?
I have been following ProMED for 30+ years. https://www.promedmail.org/about-promed
It is the news front line of the International Society of Infectious Disease (ISID). Their new website (this month) has a variety of subscription options ranging from free to institutional.
Sorry - didn't realize this profile carried over. Patricia Woodbury, ICU RN, CCRN (ret)
In regard to your question on alternative vaccine requests. I can only speak to my experience as a neonatologist in the NICU, hospital settings. I personally would work with parents requesting an alternative schedule. I felt it was more successful at achieving compliance for the premature infants at high risk for serious illness.
I don't know how many of you follow https://substack.com/@sarscov2covid19 but below is what was posted a few days ago. Given the nature of the information they say that they are getting it is hard to confirm- hardly what we scientists want but given the times that we are in, I wanted to share it and let you look at that substack and decide for yourselves. It addresses Dr. Jetelina's topic of bird flu being "quiet".
"Just spoke with my CDC sources. They were in tears.
Budgets cut. RFJK has ordered them not to publicize bird flu symptoms in exposed workers. Not to test them. Not to speak.
They know people are getting sick. And they’re being forced to stay silent.
This is not just a cover-up. It's cruelty."
And
"I am exposing the Trump administration and will continue to do so through direct, firsthand reports from my CDC sources.
I will keep you informed about Bird Flu, COVID-19, Tuberculosis, Measles, and other infectious diseases bringing you the truth about what’s happening behind closed doors at the CDC, and what’s being hidden from the public.
I will continue to leak the truth.
Right now, farmers showing symptoms of Bird Flu are not being tested by direct order of RFJK.
This is not just negligence. This is the murder of public health in front of our eyes.
I need your support. Please follow my page and spread the word. The people deserve to know the truth, and I will not stay silent."
And
"BREAKING: H5N1 Bird Flu Causes Encephalitis in 8-Year-Old in Vietnam
An 8-year-old in Vietnam has developed encephalitis linked to H5N1 avian influenza.
PCR testing confirmed A/H5 virus in the cerebrospinal fluid, indicating brain infection."
Healthy dose of skepticism: while I am certainly worried about people in the administration minimizing H5N1, most public health investigations are being driven by local and state health departments. I have not heard of any attempt by CDC/HHS to stifle locals from investigating bird flu outbreaks, monitoring workers with symptoms or test them. Some state labs have their own ability to do at least H5 testing. All that to say RFK can't order local jurisdictions to not test people.
I agree with your skepticism and appreciate your response.
Great report as usual Dr. Jentelina. Thank you!
Thank you YLE for being a light in the dark
Thanks again for this update, especially about allergy season. There may be an opportunity to suggest climate warming to deniers who complain about the intensity and duration of their allergies. In my MAGA heavy region, gardening is very popular hobby.
Thank you so much. I really value the work you do and your careful scientific approach
Perhaps another time when you mention ticks, you could talk about the rising numbers of Alpha-Gal syndrome. Plus two additional ticks (3, now) carry the sugar to give you this allergy to mammals. BTW, it's annoying to have it because it's not just mammal meat to avoid, but things like bovine gelcaps or medical ingredients, stuff in shampoo, marshmallows -- things you'd never think would make you sick. When people call it the "red meat" allergy they make it sound like an easy thing to deal with. I guess you can tell I've got it, right?
I hope Dr. J follows up on this. Our nephews were Boy Scouts, and I remember hearing about this “super weird” thing that happened to a few kids in their troop, where they got tick bites while camping, then suddenly couldn't eat hamburgers anymore. That was about 16 years ago. Fast forward to now, and the phenomenon is understood, but still not widely known. Especially not that things like a gelcap could trigger a reaction.
Don't forget sunburns!!! I made the unforced error of spending lots of time outside yesterday in the warm sun, short sleeves, no sunscreen. Still feeling it today - it's having a systemic effect.
A lean heavily toward the GOF/lab leak origins of Covid. I don’t trust the CCP who’s been obstructing the international investigations from the very beginning. Covid was circulating much earlier than what has been reported in the MSM, as early as October 2019 at the military games in Wuhan where several of our soldiers who participated came down with it. Regarding its origin, there is no question our NIH through EcoHealth Alliance funded GOF research there. You can read about the first cases here:
https://legalinsurrection.com/2025/04/report-biden-admin-hid-report-linking-american-covid-cases-to-military-games-in-october-2019/amp/