Unfortunately, we will NOT reach herd immunity in April...

My two cents

A few days ago, the WSJ published an Op Ed written by a surgical oncologist (ie cancer) entitled: “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April”. I’ve probably gotten 1,000ish messages asking me to comment on this, so this is my attempt.

Disclaimer: I didn’t know how to do this without sounding like a professor. This was the easiest and most straightforward way to write this blog post. So, this looks like one of my students’ papers with edits/comments/reactions. (I’m sure my students are getting a kick out of this post). In the document, the highlighted colors are meaningful. And I tried to associate a comment box with every yellow and red color.

  • GREEN (I agree);

  • YELLOW (I agree and I disagree); and

  • RED (I disagree).

Here we go…

Bottom line:

  1. When will we reach herd immunity? This is a really difficult question to accurately answer. Herd immunity in 6 weeks sounds really nice, but it’s important to keep realistic expectations. I am doubtful this will happen.

  2. I get it, we are all drinking water from a fire hose. But, if you don’t have a good grasp on the science, don’t write an Op Ed and, more importantly, don’t let that Op Ed get published

Love, YLE

Data sources (I couldn’t link them in the PDF):

  • I’ve talked about a lot of these studies in previous posts, but you can start here

  • U.S. vaccination numbers (1 dose and 2 dose series)

  • TSA travel numbers

  • The “true” number of infected in the U.S.

  • The three of states close to breaking the transmission chain

  • 0.68% IFR

  • Variant spread