A few days ago, the WSJ published an Op Ed written by a surgical oncologist (ie cancer) entitled: “We’ll Have Herd Immunity by April”. I’ve probably gotten 1,000ish messages asking me to comment on this, so this is my attempt.
Disclaimer: I didn’t know how to do this without sounding like a professor. This was the easiest and most straightforward way to write this blog post. So, this looks like one of my students’ papers with edits/comments/reactions. (I’m sure my students are getting a kick out of this post). In the document, the highlighted colors are meaningful. And I tried to associate a comment box with every yellow and red color.
GREEN (I agree);
YELLOW (I agree and I disagree); and
RED (I disagree).
Here we go…
Bottom line:
When will we reach herd immunity? This is a really difficult question to accurately answer. Herd immunity in 6 weeks sounds really nice, but it’s important to keep realistic expectations. I am doubtful this will happen.
I get it, we are all drinking water from a fire hose. But, if you don’t have a good grasp on the science, don’t write an Op Ed and, more importantly, don’t let that Op Ed get published
Love, YLE
Data sources (I couldn’t link them in the PDF):
Fabulous break down. Thank you for picking this article apart.
I don't know if anyone will see this now that its an old post, but I am curious on the article that came out in the Dallas Morning news about Dallas reaching herd immunity by June. It was the Director of Parkland's Innovation center. Any thoughts there like the above. https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dallas-county-could-reach-herd-immunity-in-june-forecasts-suggest/2561709/