It’s mid-March and cases in the United States are plateauing. This is typically fantastic news. Unfortunately, though, we still haven’t recovered from our third wave (cases are still higher than they were in Aug 2020).
Also, back in January, we (the CDC and others [including me]) expected that a variant surge would hit mid-March. We predicted that it would first hit in Florida around March 8 (as they have the most B.1.1.7 cases recorded). But it hasn’t hit Florida (or any state at that). So, where is the surge? A few hypotheses are circling around…
Hypothesis #1: Vaccinations are starting to play a role.
This is the hypothesis that I’m least convinced about. We know from previous research that the majority of COVID19 is transmitted by younger populations. Although 63.4% of people 65+ have had at least one dose in the U.S. (and 35% are fully vaccinated), this would account for a decrease in deaths and hospitalizations, not cases.
Hypothesis #2: Timing is on our side
We could have gotten lucky with timing. The variants hit the U.S. much later than the U.K. We were able to get a head start on vaccinations and the variants didn’t come during the holiday season. This coupled with our weather getting warmer (and less people cooped up inside) could be protecting us.
Hypothesis #3: We’re transitioning into an endemic.
Hypothesis #1 and #2 then leads us to #3. Are we slowly entering an endemic phase?(“slowly” being the key word; are still very much in a pandemic right now. I’ve talked about the two before HERE). Briefly, in order to reach an endemic phase, we need four things to happen (see Figure).
We’re slowly checking a few of these off…
Intervention- thanks to vaccines, drug treatments and our understanding of masks and social distancing (although people actually need to do this in order to work)
Seasonality- While impossible to see during a pandemic (in 2020), we should start getting a better picture in 2021.
Immunity- We have more public health resources than we’ve had before. Because of this, one would expect a steep decline in Wave 3. However, our incline and decline for Wave #3 is much more drawn out than the previous waves. This is apparent in the U.S. as a whole, but much clearer when we look at individual states or counties. This is a subtle hint that we want to pay attention to.
Again, this disease is spread far too wide to be an endemic, but this could be an indication that it’s coming soon. In which case, COVID19 would be here to stay.
Hypothesis #4: The surge is still coming.
This is the most likely scenario. We saw in other countries (U.K. and Ireland) that when B.1.1.7. hit the 50% mark (i.e. B.1.1.7 accounts for more than 50% of new cases), cases increased exponentially. This is also happening in Italy right now.
In the United States, B.1.1.7 makes up 30-40% of cases. So, the surge could still be coming. Especially with Spring Break around the corner and states loosening restrictions.
As with everything in the pandemic, only time will tell us which hypothesis (or combination of hypotheses) is correct.
Love, YLE
Hi, you present vital information and write clearly, but you have again buried your lede. The lede paragraph of this post should be something along the lines of "Although COVID-19 cases in the United States are plateauing, the most likely current scenario predicts another surge is coming....."
The transition paragraph should discuss what people should do to continue to protect themselves (get vaccinated, continue to social distance and mask up, etc.)
Then you can go into the more detailed discussion of the various scenarios.
These are of course just recommendations, but I'm speaking from the vantage of 40+ years as a writer, often on technical subjects, and communications/public relations analyst and planner. You have to get the most important point for your readers in the first sentence. The acronym "BLUF" stands for Bottom Line Up Front, and it is a very good rule of thumb for mass communication.
You are doing really important work--thank you!
Let’s not forget about this potential superspreader event: Daytona Bike Week, which ended yesterday.
https://www.news-journalonline.com/story/news/regional/bike-week/2021/03/12/bike-week-still-draws-big-crowds-even-covid-restrictions/6937854002/
And keep this in mind when you look at photos of that crowd jammed into bars, etc.
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2021830118