A hot topic. Specifically, because Case Fatality Rates (CFR) are decreasing, while cases are increasing. Which seems counter intuitive. I’ve seen several hypotheses floating around explaining this phenomenon: 1. Lag time. Scientists have estimated that CFR lags 14-30 days due to disease manifestation and spread to vulnerable populations. So, for example, the CFR on July 7 isn’t reflective of the cases on July 7 but INSTEAD is reflective of the spread on June 5. Exponential growth started in Texas on June 15ish and 30 days have yet to pass. We may see this start to increase here soon. This delay has a big impact on CFR (see how different the 14-day lag compared to the 30-day lag is in the Figures).
Case Fatality Rates
Case Fatality Rates
Case Fatality Rates
A hot topic. Specifically, because Case Fatality Rates (CFR) are decreasing, while cases are increasing. Which seems counter intuitive. I’ve seen several hypotheses floating around explaining this phenomenon: 1. Lag time. Scientists have estimated that CFR lags 14-30 days due to disease manifestation and spread to vulnerable populations. So, for example, the CFR on July 7 isn’t reflective of the cases on July 7 but INSTEAD is reflective of the spread on June 5. Exponential growth started in Texas on June 15ish and 30 days have yet to pass. We may see this start to increase here soon. This delay has a big impact on CFR (see how different the 14-day lag compared to the 30-day lag is in the Figures).