When people are mandated to get a shot, especially one that doesn’t prevent infection and transmission, people will understandably lose confidence in the shot.
Bingo. This is reason #1 the public lost faith in the shot - Fauci, Wallensky, Bourla, Bancel, etc all promised them the shot would make them a "dead end" for the virus.
And when this turned out to be incorrect, reason #2 appeared - the shitty day or two they had following their vaccine no longer seemed worth it, as they would wind up getting Covid and feel crappy a second day. I think many people - even within YLE comment section - seem to be wary of this as well (based on how many people I have seen asking for Novavax, including YLE, because of how bad they feel following the mRNA shots).
If you still got chicken pox after getting the varicella vaccine, or you still got smallpox after getting the smallpox vaccine, those would have failed with the public as well. The reason for their high uptake is because they work.
I think there's a misapprehension going on here. "Less effective" is not the exact same thing as "ineffective." The SARS19 virus evolved rather radically to become more immune evasive since the early days when the first vaccines were developed. The optimistic statements about vaccine efficacy made in 2020 were true when they were made, and it is disingenuous to claim otherwise. Vaccinated people are now routinely infected, true, but infections tend to be less severe, viral loads tend to be lower, and transmission tends to be less. Some people are falling for the argument that unless a vaccination is 100% effective, it is utterly worthless. Don't let the best be the enemy of the good. BTW, small pox vaccines were not 100% effective either, and there were (at least) hundreds of serious adverse events, including blindness and death. Finally, many overlook the fact that we take vaccines not just for ourselves but for others. For example, rubella isn't much a threat to the children who are vaccinated, but it is a catastrophe for pregnant women who were not previously exposed or vaccinated. Indeed, it was the leading cause of congenital metal retardation (at least it was in the 1970s, when I was one of the first human subjects for the rubella vaccine). Those outcomes are so dire that it well worth trying to stamp out or at least minimize vulnerability to that virus in the mass population. Of necessity, public health looks to protecting society as a whole, not individuals as individuals.
I agree, the implication that it was sterilizing immunity -versus how most vaccinations work (like the flu) to reduce severe disease -was a big chink in the armor. Public health has to make sure that they're clear about what protection the vaccine offers and why, even if it does not prevent you from getting it to begin with, it's still a good idea.
I agree too that making sure that we have non- MRNA options for the public is incredibly important. Also the nasal sprays and ones that are variant proof.
First, there was a bit of hyperbole since the vaccine did a darn good job. No, you still get infected when you are exposed to the virus. Never saw being promoted as sterilizing, there no sterilizing vaccine. MSM did tend to be overzealous on this issue. Second, there has been a lot of misinformation about this from the antivax folks. Here's one example: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-fauci-vaccineeffectiveness-idUSL1N2L82Q4
It took a couple of centuries but Smallpox vaccines are no longer needed.(it was mandated and SCOTUS upheld it as constitutional in 1905.) There were s number of things that helped eliminate it. .. https://www.britannica.com/science/smallpox
One thing that I would add is the cost of the vaccines.
KB - "Never saw being promoted as sterilizing, there no sterilizing vaccine. MSM did tend to be overzealous on this issue."
That feels like revisionism - after all, if it wasn't "sterilizing"**, then how could we have mandates? Why was Biden "losing patience with the unvaccinated"? Why were we "doing our part" and putting up those Facebook frames around our profiles showing how we were helping? Why did we fire healthcare workers ? Why was Fauci talking about thresholds for herd immunity based on number of vaccinated people? Why was Kyrie Irving not allowed to play in Home games (but for some reason it was ok to play on the road)?
Because everyone was convinced we had the next polio or small pox vaccine on our hands.
And it wasn't the mainstream media getting "overzealous".
It was Anthony Fauci:
“So even though there are breakthrough infections with vaccinated people, almost always the people are asymptomatic and the level of virus is so low it makes it extremely unlikely — not impossible but very, very low likelihood — that they’re going to transmit it,” [1]
**I don't wish to get into a philosophical debate on the semantics of "sterilizing" vaccine - you know what I mean, a vaccine that almost always stops the recipient from getting the pathogen they are vaccinating against.
At any rate, mandates have nothing to do with this.
HCW lost their jobs because they did not comply with the rules.
Yes, Fauci did say things back in 2021 when the vaccines were first started for the general public, we were seeing results that exceeded expectations. This lead to a lot of speculating and predictions that did not come to past. Many have admitted that SARS-CoV-2 had other avenues to explore (forgive the anthropomorphic reference but remember: "The Harvard Law states: Under controlled conditions of light, temperature, humidity, and nutrition, the organism will do as it damn well pleases.".
As for herd immunity, I consider this a myth as well. At any rate, not realistic for SARS-CoV-2, but then again, have we ever achieved this with Influenza? Smallpox?
KB: "I will bypass the logic fallacies" - KB, that's a cop out. If I made fallacies, please point them out.
KB: "Katherine J. Wu, (excellent writer for The Atlantic), wrote a piece om sterilizing immunity myth"
I read that, it's in my archives (tagged for HARKING). Another post-hoc excuse piece. Once it was clear that vaccinated were getting sick, all of the sudden we start seeing these "it's like we always said.." CYA pieces. Why didn't Katherine Wu publish this in 2020 when we were being told vaccination made you immune to Covid? Why didn't she leap to the defense of Alex Berenson who was banned from Twitter for saying the vaccine doesn't prevent infection? (we would later learn at the request of the White House) [1] How convenient she waited until Sept 2021.
KB: "HCW lost their jobs because of the rules"
And the rules were based on the premise that the shot was necessary to achieve herd immunity, end covid, and make you immune. Period. That was how they were sold. That is how they justified the mandate, and they looked like idiots when Covid surged among the vaccinated fall of 2021 and excess deaths *increased*.
KB: "As for herd immunity, I consider this a myth as well." - That may be, but Fauci, Wallensky, and the rest of the PH that pushed for mandates and the suspension of informed consent believed in it (until of course, it didn't materialize, and they start saying "it's like we always said..." and backpedal). We have the receipts. And you have been commenting here a long time and I don't see you piping up when YLE talked about getting to 60% vaccination to reach heard immunity.
____________
[1] Paywall bypass of WSJ article detailing this insanity
I gotta harp on Katherine Wu a bit more, as here is another example of her Post Hoc writing at work:
Example 1: She does a "1 of n" Twitter posts, celebrating her husband getting his first Moderna shot [1]:
_______________________________
"Protection takes energy and effort and I'm proud to say his body is rising to the challenge.
He got the vaccine this morning, so right now we can expect that his cells are starting to churn out some spike protein. Spike is not infectious and it can't cause Covid. 2/"
...
"But those proteins will teach a cadre of immune cells to recognize one of the coronavirus's most salient features. That way, if the real virus comes around, his body will recognize it and marshal forces to keep him from getting sick.
It's pretty incredible stuff. 3/"
_____________________________
Note that not once does she mention she expects him to be prepared to be knocked on his ass for the second shot.
But that's what happened. Like so many others who felt like shit after the second shot (so they could avoid feeling like shit), her husband had a very strong reaction. So what does she do? Post hoc time!
"It's like we always said... the strong side effects mean it's working!" [2]
Wu tell us:
"At about 2 a.m. on Thursday morning, I woke to find my husband shivering beside me. For hours, he had been tossing in bed, exhausted but unable to sleep, nursing chills, a fever, and an agonizingly sore left arm. His teeth chattered. His forehead was freckled with sweat. And as I lay next to him, cinching blanket after blanket around his arms, I felt an immense sense of relief. All this misery was a sign that the immune cells in his body had been riled up by the second shot of a COVID-19 vaccine, and were well on their way to guarding him from future disease."
Repeat that: "Well on their way to guarding him from future disease"
And he concludes "“This is a million times better than getting COVID.”
Example 2: Well, just read this piece she wrote 2/2021 and compare to the 9/2021 piece. It's goal post shifting and harking. And that would be fine had she expressed humility, had she stood against the propagandists rather than alongside them.
My favorite book of 2022 was Brian Deer’s “The Doctor who Fooled the World”, I and my children are up to date on all vaccinations except Covid, and since you can’t find a single dishonest thing in my post you resort to ad hominem attacks.
Perhaps some people are confused on the difference between the words "prevent" and "reduce." They also seem to not understand that there are numbers between 0 and 100.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Here's a quick recap of the propaganda saying the vaccine would provide 90%-95% prevention from Covid infection.
Anthony Fauci:
“When you get vaccinated, you not only protect your own health and that of the family but also you contribute to the community health by preventing the spread of the virus throughout the community,” Fauci said. “In other words, you become a dead end to the virus. And when there are a lot of dead ends around, the virus is not going to go anywhere. And that’s when you get a point that you have a markedly diminished rate of infection in the community.”
“as with all vaccines, we must demonstrate success in order to seek approval for public use. First, the vaccine must be proven effective, meaning it can help prevent COVID-19 disease in at least a majority of vaccinated patients.”
“Pfizer announced Monday their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection, hailing the development as “a great day for science and humanity.”
"Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine has… been authorized for emergency use by FDA, under an EUA to prevent Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) for use in individuals aged 6 months through 11 years of age"
“We all know already if you get vaccinated, that vaccine will basically prevent you from getting sick with COVID, it will prevent you from going to the hospital with COVID symptoms, prevent you from dying with COVID. Great, good for you.”
“More than 99% of Stanford Health Care employees resisted breakthrough infections after receiving at least one dose of an mRNA-based vaccine for COVID-19, according to researchers at the Stanford School of Medicine.”…” More than 99% of Stanford Health Care employees resisted breakthrough infections after receiving at least one dose of an mRNA-based vaccine for COVID-19, according to researchers at the Stanford School of Medicine.”
That's a joke, they mandate many others to protect society as a whole. It doesn't keep you from catching a virus, it just keeps you alive! Gee, maybe not worth it?
Yes, incentives are better than punishments, such as losing one’s job and ability to earn income, being prohibited from attending college or from entering certain public spaces, etc.
Whoever debates Biden next year will have a field day with this!
There may be certain Public Health situations that merit mandates, but forcing people to take a vaccine that does little (or nothing) in the way of creating durable herd immunity is not one of them.
Worse, this was such a colossally huge blunder that everything that came afterwards (like charts showing how fabulous the vaccines are) should be met with skepticism and independently reviewed before fed to the public.
"Whoever debates Biden next year will have a field day with this!"
It's unfortunately going to be Trump, barring he has a McDonalds induced heart attack, and it won't be a talking point because Trump prides himself on warp speed. Both parties will largely forget this ever happened. Like Tulip Mania.
It could have even been a modest financial penalty. The KISS principle is very applicable here. For instance, the 2021 tranche of pandemic unemployment assistance that we all got could have been contingent on eventually getting at least one shot (OR an antibody test demonstrating immunity). If not, it would need to be paid back with interest. Making the penalty purely financial would have been consistent with the Jacobson v Massachusetts case that was often cited in support of mandates.
I am wondering what the state of research is on COVID nosesprays (e.g., Enovid/Sanotize) and other measures that actually prevent transmission. Maybe you could do an article on this? There are some of us out here who are still really working to avoid infection (due to autoimmune issues, etc.), but it's becoming more and more difficult as the rest of the world wants to return to normal and make those of us still taking precautions feel crazy. I've seen some studies that suggest that these may actually prevent transmission, but haven't seen any sign that this is a priority anymore. Would love to know your thoughts!
I’d would love an article on this too. We are abroad (not a vacation), very recently vaccinated, and using Enovid as part of our effort to not get sick. We’re not sure if we are wasting our time or money but we wanted another layer of “Swiss cheese.”
I wonder about the extent to which better antivirals (and fine tuning the dosing of existing ones) might obviate the need for nasal vaccines. Insofar as these reduce the risk of severe outcomes of covid, while at the same time allowing the immune system to see live virus, couldn't such encounters with covid become functionally equivalent to nasal vaccines?
I've had four shots. I believe in public health. However, I will not get another MRNA-based COVID vaccine. I now have Atrial Fibrillation. Maybe the problem is that the informed public believes that COVID-19 vaccine advocates have not been fully forthcoming about test results provided and are quick to dismiss any anomalies in the data. This is not public health, this is a snow job for the benefit of Big Pharma. Sadly your credibility is waning.. and so thus is shot uptake.
There are many people who have had problems from the shots and many people who have not. Truth on both sides. It is a particularly immunogenic vaccine and each person must make a risk-benefit calculation. As the shots become less effective, the scales tip differently for each individual. That is not acknowledged enough by the powers that be and that's where the trust eroded.
"Truth on both sides." Nope. The data are what they are. One either bases one's view of the situation on them or one picks the data they like to support their pre-ordained conclusion. Dr. J. and other people who actually know something about this are in the first group. Those are scientists.
The other group consists of agenda-driven ideologues who see COVID as just an opportunity to advance a radical political agenda.
1) KJ: "Covid-19 circulates year-round, while flu circulates seasonally. "
May want to correct that. The flu, like Covid, circulates year-round. And Covid, like the Flu, has seasonality impact on excess deaths (deaths for the last 3 years returned back to baseline in Spring/Summer, before spiking again in the fall/winter - identical to flu mortality patterns)
2) Not sure the comparison to organ donation makes sense. Organ donation is a risk-free, selfless act, that benefits everyone *except* the organ donor. By contrast, the Covid Vaccine only benefits yourself - it has no impact on others - and, comes with at the risk of feeling crappy the next day which many of you openly acknowledge (this is why I chickened out of the vaccine personally, too many friends, family, and social media influencers talking about how bad they felt following the shot).
So not sure the psychology for the former could apply to the latter.
3) Would you care to make any predictions on what happens if annual covid shot uptake remains low? Will we have higher all-cause mortality than last year?
It seems to me, that if uptake remains low, and excess deaths continue to recede (last, and final update from CDC September 27th showed we were back at pre-covid mortality baselines [1]), then perhaps the Covid annual shots aren't nearly as important as you believe them to be.
I understand you believe the CDC should allocate part of its finite money to increase marketing campaigns for Covid shots, but if it turns out that *not* spending money on marketing the shots *didn't* impact mortality this coming year, would you reconsider your hypothesis?
People were coerced and/or mandated to get the first iteration of these shots. People were also lied to by "experts" and politicians about the efficacy and safety of these shots. The director of the CDC and the President both said on national TV that the shots would prevent infection/transmission. That was proven false almost immediately.
This isn't hard to figure out. People aren't buying the propaganda anymore and they are resentful about being forced to take the original shots.
I’ve had friends with insurance forced to pay $200 up for the vaccine and they still haven’t been reimbursed. Privatization is a nightmare and a scam as ever. Also, one reason many delay is that they had such a strong reaction to earlier doses that it took them out of work for days. It’s absolutely worth missing work for a vax compared to the risk of ruining your life by getting Long Covid— but so many working people can’t plan for the future. They can only manage their immediate circumstances. So they don’t miss work for the vax then end up disabled by long covid later or miss weeks of work when they get even just a regular bought of covid. Now there’s information that seems to show that Novavax is less likely to cause extreme reactions in people, but it’s even harder to find.
Meh, I'm not sure about this. For ACA plans, paying these claims is a pretty easy way for them to make their statutory 80% MLR's. State insurance departments may exert some pressure on insurers to be stingy, so they don't have to assume responsibility for liquidated companies.
Fatigue -- sure! People are tired of being lectured to and we'd like to see some statistics. How many adverse events do we expect for each COVID case avoided? Why do we still have no case-control studies of the long-term effects of vaccination on mortality? What are the ingredients in the vaccines, usually reported on a package insert which in this case is blank? Why have reports to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System increased fifty-fold since the mRNA vaccines were introduced?
Maybe it's time to back off our "laser focus" on the propaganda campaign and focus instead on informed consent.
the original Phase 3 Pfizer trial was unblinded after 3 months. In those 3 months, no mortality or hospitalization benefit was observed. In fact, more people died in the vaccine arm than in the placebo. But the clinical trial was so underpowered that it essentially tells you nothing. We have no idea what the long term risks or benefits are in any statistical sense. Anything related to this virus or its vaccines needs to be age stratified. But the shot was pushed on everyone from the start.
What don't you get? There are huge financial incentives to vaccine manufacturers. The CDC has gone all-in on vaccination as the one and only response to COVID. Public relations is their number one priority. If people start asking questions, they get into a regime where they can't justify their policies. It's clear as day what's going on.
"The CDC has gone all-in on vaccination as the one and only response to COVID." Demonstrably false. And as long as drug development and manufacturing is going to be done by for-profit businesses, there will be "huge financial incentives" involved. That's why we have a CDC, FDA, and federal regulatory agencies in general.
It seems like another relevant factor might be that many people have a more intense physiological reaction to COVID vaccines and boosters than they do to flu vaccines and boosters. For some busy people, it's a decision about whether you're willing to just go DOWN for a day or two with nasty fevers / headaches / mental haze or to risk another bout of COVID (which may or may not have strongly affected you before). For the record, I got my shot, and advocate vaccines over catching the 'VID, but I think it's worth considering and publicly acknowledging that the effects of the vaccine can be really unpleasant, and some otherwise willing and informed people might just not want to go through it.
I found it difficult to find the Novavax anywhere in Southern California so I got the Pfizer. It is challenging to navigate the system to get any vaccine and those who don't want the mRNA's will give up. People are also not testing when they have mild symptoms, even when they have a sore throat, loss of taste /smell, or congestion. They don't believe they could have Covid if they are not REALLY sick. How can we educate the general pubic better?
On top of that the tests people have access to are not very reliable. I never tested positive on a home rapid test when I had Covid only on a PCR. Now I can’t even get a PCR if I want without risking covid exposure at a urgent care full of unmasked sick people and spend over $100 for the privilege.
I disagree with this. The reason there is a discrepancy between rapid tests and PCR tests is that the former are more of an indicator of current infectiousness while the latter can pick up dead RNA from several months ago. If rapid tests are used correctly, as directed, they work fine.
If I didn't have access to a PCR test I would never have known I had covid. RATs are not adequate. Even if I wasn't contagious, I still needed to know I had COVID so I could rest and attempt to recover.
Exactly - my frustration also is you can try to be diligent and test but your negative may be a false negative and you need to test again in 48 hours and You may or may not have COVID anyway. People can't just stay home/isolate for days if they're not sure if it's allergies or cold or Covid.
And, of course, there's the problem presented by poor (or absent) science and statistics education in our schools, the politicization of public health in general and vaccination in particular by right wing extremists (including slick propaganda and social media trolls), and the proliferation of self-appointed "experts" with degrees from the Close Cover Before Striking School of Virology and Motel Management on that great sink of B.S. known as YouTube.
Poor statistics education, like major news organizations and "experts" conflating a CFR (case fatality rate) for covid with an estimated IFR (infection fatality rate) for flu. The true IFR for SARS-COV-2 is under 0.1% for the population as a whole, with most of the population well under that. So the 3% number that was being thrown around in March 2020 was only off by 2 orders of magnitude. The public was lied to by people who should have known better.
It’s been insanely hard to find vaccines for young kids, even in the liberal well vaxxed area where I live. Our pediatrician even wanted it but as of last week it still hasn’t come in. Fortunately we were finally able to get them at Costco, but it was over a month since approval and after earlier Walgreens appts were canceled. If someone doesn’t persevere or is on the fence about it, there’s no way their kids are vaccinated right now. And if the kid is under 3, forget about it.
Congratulations on your article in Scientific American! Love your knack for clarifying and explaining. We definitely need to learn and apply what works (and under what circumstances) in guiding healthy behaviors. Still, that's one thing for people who already believe vaccination is a good idea (at least for them) - and as you point out that's a lot of people. It's more complicated for those who question that - for example because they don't see big waves of hospitalizations following large gatherings, or are actually at low risk of serious consequences of infection, or are hearing the largely unanswered voices of people claiming they have suffered devastating consequences of vaccination (or hearing rumors about supposed cover-ups of DNA contamination (like here: https://worldcouncilforhealth.substack.com/p/urgent-expert-hearing), etc. Got Novavax last week AFTER wading through studies and a dizzying array of commentary on the studies - and I'm a scientist trained to analyze studies! (It helped me decide that I had zero side effects to the first 4 jabs). A big thank you, Dr. Jetelina, for what you're doing here, including convening a community with a range of perspectives.
Interesting experience at CVS during the early roll-out of the Fall Covid Vax: I was picking up an Rx at my local Chicago CVS in September and hoping for a booster. Before I could ask, the clerk said, "We just got our Covid vaccine order, would you like one?" I said, "Yes!" and turned to a bunch of other old folks in the area and said, "They've got the vaccine!" Well, it was like a party. I was so amazed and pleased to see the enthusiasm as we all waited our turn together. Several were also getting the flu shot. The Scientific American article is right on. If we could only make it this easy for everyone...
Reason 6: Covid Vaccine Mandates in 2021
When people are mandated to get a shot, especially one that doesn’t prevent infection and transmission, people will understandably lose confidence in the shot.
Bingo. This is reason #1 the public lost faith in the shot - Fauci, Wallensky, Bourla, Bancel, etc all promised them the shot would make them a "dead end" for the virus.
And when this turned out to be incorrect, reason #2 appeared - the shitty day or two they had following their vaccine no longer seemed worth it, as they would wind up getting Covid and feel crappy a second day. I think many people - even within YLE comment section - seem to be wary of this as well (based on how many people I have seen asking for Novavax, including YLE, because of how bad they feel following the mRNA shots).
If you still got chicken pox after getting the varicella vaccine, or you still got smallpox after getting the smallpox vaccine, those would have failed with the public as well. The reason for their high uptake is because they work.
I think there's a misapprehension going on here. "Less effective" is not the exact same thing as "ineffective." The SARS19 virus evolved rather radically to become more immune evasive since the early days when the first vaccines were developed. The optimistic statements about vaccine efficacy made in 2020 were true when they were made, and it is disingenuous to claim otherwise. Vaccinated people are now routinely infected, true, but infections tend to be less severe, viral loads tend to be lower, and transmission tends to be less. Some people are falling for the argument that unless a vaccination is 100% effective, it is utterly worthless. Don't let the best be the enemy of the good. BTW, small pox vaccines were not 100% effective either, and there were (at least) hundreds of serious adverse events, including blindness and death. Finally, many overlook the fact that we take vaccines not just for ourselves but for others. For example, rubella isn't much a threat to the children who are vaccinated, but it is a catastrophe for pregnant women who were not previously exposed or vaccinated. Indeed, it was the leading cause of congenital metal retardation (at least it was in the 1970s, when I was one of the first human subjects for the rubella vaccine). Those outcomes are so dire that it well worth trying to stamp out or at least minimize vulnerability to that virus in the mass population. Of necessity, public health looks to protecting society as a whole, not individuals as individuals.
I agree, the implication that it was sterilizing immunity -versus how most vaccinations work (like the flu) to reduce severe disease -was a big chink in the armor. Public health has to make sure that they're clear about what protection the vaccine offers and why, even if it does not prevent you from getting it to begin with, it's still a good idea.
I agree too that making sure that we have non- MRNA options for the public is incredibly important. Also the nasal sprays and ones that are variant proof.
First, there was a bit of hyperbole since the vaccine did a darn good job. No, you still get infected when you are exposed to the virus. Never saw being promoted as sterilizing, there no sterilizing vaccine. MSM did tend to be overzealous on this issue. Second, there has been a lot of misinformation about this from the antivax folks. Here's one example: https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-fauci-vaccineeffectiveness-idUSL1N2L82Q4
Yes, you can get the chickenpox after vaccination, just milder. Wild to mild though! https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/chickenpox-vaccinated-3573682/
It took a couple of centuries but Smallpox vaccines are no longer needed.(it was mandated and SCOTUS upheld it as constitutional in 1905.) There were s number of things that helped eliminate it. .. https://www.britannica.com/science/smallpox
One thing that I would add is the cost of the vaccines.
KB - "Never saw being promoted as sterilizing, there no sterilizing vaccine. MSM did tend to be overzealous on this issue."
That feels like revisionism - after all, if it wasn't "sterilizing"**, then how could we have mandates? Why was Biden "losing patience with the unvaccinated"? Why were we "doing our part" and putting up those Facebook frames around our profiles showing how we were helping? Why did we fire healthcare workers ? Why was Fauci talking about thresholds for herd immunity based on number of vaccinated people? Why was Kyrie Irving not allowed to play in Home games (but for some reason it was ok to play on the road)?
Because everyone was convinced we had the next polio or small pox vaccine on our hands.
And it wasn't the mainstream media getting "overzealous".
It was Anthony Fauci:
“So even though there are breakthrough infections with vaccinated people, almost always the people are asymptomatic and the level of virus is so low it makes it extremely unlikely — not impossible but very, very low likelihood — that they’re going to transmit it,” [1]
___________
[1] https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/553773-fauci-vaccinated-people-become-dead-ends-for-the-coronavirus/
**I don't wish to get into a philosophical debate on the semantics of "sterilizing" vaccine - you know what I mean, a vaccine that almost always stops the recipient from getting the pathogen they are vaccinating against.
100% 👏
Rule #1 in Public Health: never deceive the Public. Without Public trust, nothing else is possible.
So, I will bypass the logic fallacies and say I really don't have time to go into my archives. I do recall that the myth of sterilizing immunity was so pervasive that Katherine J. Wu, (excellent writer for The Atlantic), wrote a piece om sterilizing immunity myth in 2021. https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/09/sterilizing-immunity-myth-covid-19-vaccines/620023/
At any rate, mandates have nothing to do with this.
HCW lost their jobs because they did not comply with the rules.
Yes, Fauci did say things back in 2021 when the vaccines were first started for the general public, we were seeing results that exceeded expectations. This lead to a lot of speculating and predictions that did not come to past. Many have admitted that SARS-CoV-2 had other avenues to explore (forgive the anthropomorphic reference but remember: "The Harvard Law states: Under controlled conditions of light, temperature, humidity, and nutrition, the organism will do as it damn well pleases.".
As for herd immunity, I consider this a myth as well. At any rate, not realistic for SARS-CoV-2, but then again, have we ever achieved this with Influenza? Smallpox?
KB: "I will bypass the logic fallacies" - KB, that's a cop out. If I made fallacies, please point them out.
KB: "Katherine J. Wu, (excellent writer for The Atlantic), wrote a piece om sterilizing immunity myth"
I read that, it's in my archives (tagged for HARKING). Another post-hoc excuse piece. Once it was clear that vaccinated were getting sick, all of the sudden we start seeing these "it's like we always said.." CYA pieces. Why didn't Katherine Wu publish this in 2020 when we were being told vaccination made you immune to Covid? Why didn't she leap to the defense of Alex Berenson who was banned from Twitter for saying the vaccine doesn't prevent infection? (we would later learn at the request of the White House) [1] How convenient she waited until Sept 2021.
KB: "HCW lost their jobs because of the rules"
And the rules were based on the premise that the shot was necessary to achieve herd immunity, end covid, and make you immune. Period. That was how they were sold. That is how they justified the mandate, and they looked like idiots when Covid surged among the vaccinated fall of 2021 and excess deaths *increased*.
KB: "As for herd immunity, I consider this a myth as well." - That may be, but Fauci, Wallensky, and the rest of the PH that pushed for mandates and the suspension of informed consent believed in it (until of course, it didn't materialize, and they start saying "it's like we always said..." and backpedal). We have the receipts. And you have been commenting here a long time and I don't see you piping up when YLE talked about getting to 60% vaccination to reach heard immunity.
____________
[1] Paywall bypass of WSJ article detailing this insanity
https://archive.ph/2paFE
I gotta harp on Katherine Wu a bit more, as here is another example of her Post Hoc writing at work:
Example 1: She does a "1 of n" Twitter posts, celebrating her husband getting his first Moderna shot [1]:
_______________________________
"Protection takes energy and effort and I'm proud to say his body is rising to the challenge.
He got the vaccine this morning, so right now we can expect that his cells are starting to churn out some spike protein. Spike is not infectious and it can't cause Covid. 2/"
...
"But those proteins will teach a cadre of immune cells to recognize one of the coronavirus's most salient features. That way, if the real virus comes around, his body will recognize it and marshal forces to keep him from getting sick.
It's pretty incredible stuff. 3/"
_____________________________
Note that not once does she mention she expects him to be prepared to be knocked on his ass for the second shot.
But that's what happened. Like so many others who felt like shit after the second shot (so they could avoid feeling like shit), her husband had a very strong reaction. So what does she do? Post hoc time!
"It's like we always said... the strong side effects mean it's working!" [2]
Wu tell us:
"At about 2 a.m. on Thursday morning, I woke to find my husband shivering beside me. For hours, he had been tossing in bed, exhausted but unable to sleep, nursing chills, a fever, and an agonizingly sore left arm. His teeth chattered. His forehead was freckled with sweat. And as I lay next to him, cinching blanket after blanket around his arms, I felt an immense sense of relief. All this misery was a sign that the immune cells in his body had been riled up by the second shot of a COVID-19 vaccine, and were well on their way to guarding him from future disease."
Repeat that: "Well on their way to guarding him from future disease"
And he concludes "“This is a million times better than getting COVID.”
Example 2: Well, just read this piece she wrote 2/2021 and compare to the 9/2021 piece. It's goal post shifting and harking. And that would be fine had she expressed humility, had she stood against the propagandists rather than alongside them.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/02/antibody-evolution/618004/
Then compare this piece a month later to both her 2/21 piece and later 9/21 piece. Harking
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/03/vaccine-breakthrough-cases/618330/
__________________
[1] https://twitter.com/KatherineJWu/status/1344469573278449666
[2] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/02/second-vaccine-side-effects/617892/
(archive link: https://archive.ph/1lGhR)
great points as always, KB!
Oh, I think dishonest comments like yours and outright propaganda by the anti-vaccine fanatics might have had something to do with it.
My favorite book of 2022 was Brian Deer’s “The Doctor who Fooled the World”, I and my children are up to date on all vaccinations except Covid, and since you can’t find a single dishonest thing in my post you resort to ad hominem attacks.
I’m not anti vaccine.
I’m anti government force.
Also, it’s likely Fauci and Walensky, etc, knew all along that the vaccines couldn’t stop infection and transmission.
Perhaps some people are confused on the difference between the words "prevent" and "reduce." They also seem to not understand that there are numbers between 0 and 100.
I blame poor STEM education.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
Here's a quick recap of the propaganda saying the vaccine would provide 90%-95% prevention from Covid infection.
Anthony Fauci:
“When you get vaccinated, you not only protect your own health and that of the family but also you contribute to the community health by preventing the spread of the virus throughout the community,” Fauci said. “In other words, you become a dead end to the virus. And when there are a lot of dead ends around, the virus is not going to go anywhere. And that’s when you get a point that you have a markedly diminished rate of infection in the community.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/553773-fauci-vaccinated-people-become-dead-ends-for-the-coronavirus/
Rochelle Wallensky:
“Vaccinated People do not carry the virus”
https://twitter.com/KyleMartinsen_/status/1509206752780238851
Stephane Bancel, CEO of Moderna
“Moderna's CEO said the company's new COVID-19 vaccine may prevent infection for years.”
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-vaccine-last-years-moderna-ceo/
Pfizer & Albert Bourla
“as with all vaccines, we must demonstrate success in order to seek approval for public use. First, the vaccine must be proven effective, meaning it can help prevent COVID-19 disease in at least a majority of vaccinated patients.”
https://www.pfizer.com/news/announcements/open-letter-pfizer-chairman-and-ceo-albert-bourla
“Pfizer announced Monday their coronavirus vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing Covid-19 among those without evidence of prior infection, hailing the development as “a great day for science and humanity.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html
"Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine has… been authorized for emergency use by FDA, under an EUA to prevent Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) for use in individuals aged 6 months through 11 years of age"
https://www.pfizer.com/science/coronavirus/prevention-and-treatment-options
Rachel Maddow:
“We all know already if you get vaccinated, that vaccine will basically prevent you from getting sick with COVID, it will prevent you from going to the hospital with COVID symptoms, prevent you from dying with COVID. Great, good for you.”
https://www.msnbc.com/transcripts/transcript-rachel-maddow-show-3-29-21-n1262442
Stanford Medicine:
“More than 99% of Stanford Health Care employees resisted breakthrough infections after receiving at least one dose of an mRNA-based vaccine for COVID-19, according to researchers at the Stanford School of Medicine.”…” More than 99% of Stanford Health Care employees resisted breakthrough infections after receiving at least one dose of an mRNA-based vaccine for COVID-19, according to researchers at the Stanford School of Medicine.”
https://med.stanford.edu/news/all-news/2021/07/vaccination-against-covid-19-prevents-breakthrough-infections.html
That's a joke, they mandate many others to protect society as a whole. It doesn't keep you from catching a virus, it just keeps you alive! Gee, maybe not worth it?
A "soft mandate" would have made more sense. Add back some of the tax credits taken away by the TCJA, but make them contingent on getting vaccinated.
Yes, incentives are better than punishments, such as losing one’s job and ability to earn income, being prohibited from attending college or from entering certain public spaces, etc.
Whoever debates Biden next year will have a field day with this!
There may be certain Public Health situations that merit mandates, but forcing people to take a vaccine that does little (or nothing) in the way of creating durable herd immunity is not one of them.
Worse, this was such a colossally huge blunder that everything that came afterwards (like charts showing how fabulous the vaccines are) should be met with skepticism and independently reviewed before fed to the public.
"Whoever debates Biden next year will have a field day with this!"
It's unfortunately going to be Trump, barring he has a McDonalds induced heart attack, and it won't be a talking point because Trump prides himself on warp speed. Both parties will largely forget this ever happened. Like Tulip Mania.
It could have even been a modest financial penalty. The KISS principle is very applicable here. For instance, the 2021 tranche of pandemic unemployment assistance that we all got could have been contingent on eventually getting at least one shot (OR an antibody test demonstrating immunity). If not, it would need to be paid back with interest. Making the penalty purely financial would have been consistent with the Jacobson v Massachusetts case that was often cited in support of mandates.
Along this line of thought:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnJ5T1Enwq4&t=2395s
"I'm Doctor Science"
("He's not a real doctor")
"I have a Master's Degree—in Science!"
I am wondering what the state of research is on COVID nosesprays (e.g., Enovid/Sanotize) and other measures that actually prevent transmission. Maybe you could do an article on this? There are some of us out here who are still really working to avoid infection (due to autoimmune issues, etc.), but it's becoming more and more difficult as the rest of the world wants to return to normal and make those of us still taking precautions feel crazy. I've seen some studies that suggest that these may actually prevent transmission, but haven't seen any sign that this is a priority anymore. Would love to know your thoughts!
Recently Ryan McCormick, M.D. had a couple of substacks pieces on nasal sprays. https://mccormickmd.substack.com/p/nasal-sprays-for-covid-prevention?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
I too would love to read this as it is hard to find objective information.
I’d would love an article on this too. We are abroad (not a vacation), very recently vaccinated, and using Enovid as part of our effort to not get sick. We’re not sure if we are wasting our time or money but we wanted another layer of “Swiss cheese.”
A study published in Lancet concluded "Use of NONS in patients recently infected with SARS-CoV-2 accelerates nasal virus clearance." Not sure if this would reduce transmission though guessing less virus in the nose leads to less transmission: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lansea/article/PIIS2772-3682(22)00046-4/fulltext
I wonder about the extent to which better antivirals (and fine tuning the dosing of existing ones) might obviate the need for nasal vaccines. Insofar as these reduce the risk of severe outcomes of covid, while at the same time allowing the immune system to see live virus, couldn't such encounters with covid become functionally equivalent to nasal vaccines?
Following your earlier advice: I had Covid in August, so I will get my vaccine in December (4 month delay). I listen to you.
I also think that on-line misinformation (and disinformation) is continuing to recruit covid science deniers.
I'm a physician with epidemiology training and notice that many friends on social media who once advocated for the vaccines are now opposed to them.
Also, people hear of someone with an illness and attribute it to vaccination (the "post hoc ergo propter hoc" logical fallacy).
I've had four shots. I believe in public health. However, I will not get another MRNA-based COVID vaccine. I now have Atrial Fibrillation. Maybe the problem is that the informed public believes that COVID-19 vaccine advocates have not been fully forthcoming about test results provided and are quick to dismiss any anomalies in the data. This is not public health, this is a snow job for the benefit of Big Pharma. Sadly your credibility is waning.. and so thus is shot uptake.
Or maybe the problem is thinking "anecdote" is the singular form of "data."
We've had all the shots. No lasting issues at all. Ditto for everyone we know. My anecdotes are just as good as yours.
There are many people who have had problems from the shots and many people who have not. Truth on both sides. It is a particularly immunogenic vaccine and each person must make a risk-benefit calculation. As the shots become less effective, the scales tip differently for each individual. That is not acknowledged enough by the powers that be and that's where the trust eroded.
"Truth on both sides." Nope. The data are what they are. One either bases one's view of the situation on them or one picks the data they like to support their pre-ordained conclusion. Dr. J. and other people who actually know something about this are in the first group. Those are scientists.
The other group consists of agenda-driven ideologues who see COVID as just an opportunity to advance a radical political agenda.
This false equivalence stuff is bunk.
Quick feedback:
1) KJ: "Covid-19 circulates year-round, while flu circulates seasonally. "
May want to correct that. The flu, like Covid, circulates year-round. And Covid, like the Flu, has seasonality impact on excess deaths (deaths for the last 3 years returned back to baseline in Spring/Summer, before spiking again in the fall/winter - identical to flu mortality patterns)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/index.html
2) Not sure the comparison to organ donation makes sense. Organ donation is a risk-free, selfless act, that benefits everyone *except* the organ donor. By contrast, the Covid Vaccine only benefits yourself - it has no impact on others - and, comes with at the risk of feeling crappy the next day which many of you openly acknowledge (this is why I chickened out of the vaccine personally, too many friends, family, and social media influencers talking about how bad they felt following the shot).
So not sure the psychology for the former could apply to the latter.
3) Would you care to make any predictions on what happens if annual covid shot uptake remains low? Will we have higher all-cause mortality than last year?
It seems to me, that if uptake remains low, and excess deaths continue to recede (last, and final update from CDC September 27th showed we were back at pre-covid mortality baselines [1]), then perhaps the Covid annual shots aren't nearly as important as you believe them to be.
I understand you believe the CDC should allocate part of its finite money to increase marketing campaigns for Covid shots, but if it turns out that *not* spending money on marketing the shots *didn't* impact mortality this coming year, would you reconsider your hypothesis?
______________
[1] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-Provisional-Counts-of-Deaths-by-State-and-S/muzy-jte6
People were coerced and/or mandated to get the first iteration of these shots. People were also lied to by "experts" and politicians about the efficacy and safety of these shots. The director of the CDC and the President both said on national TV that the shots would prevent infection/transmission. That was proven false almost immediately.
This isn't hard to figure out. People aren't buying the propaganda anymore and they are resentful about being forced to take the original shots.
I’ve had friends with insurance forced to pay $200 up for the vaccine and they still haven’t been reimbursed. Privatization is a nightmare and a scam as ever. Also, one reason many delay is that they had such a strong reaction to earlier doses that it took them out of work for days. It’s absolutely worth missing work for a vax compared to the risk of ruining your life by getting Long Covid— but so many working people can’t plan for the future. They can only manage their immediate circumstances. So they don’t miss work for the vax then end up disabled by long covid later or miss weeks of work when they get even just a regular bought of covid. Now there’s information that seems to show that Novavax is less likely to cause extreme reactions in people, but it’s even harder to find.
Exactly insurance companies as usual trying to avoid paying out anything so they can pay their CEOs millions.
Meh, I'm not sure about this. For ACA plans, paying these claims is a pretty easy way for them to make their statutory 80% MLR's. State insurance departments may exert some pressure on insurers to be stingy, so they don't have to assume responsibility for liquidated companies.
Fatigue -- sure! People are tired of being lectured to and we'd like to see some statistics. How many adverse events do we expect for each COVID case avoided? Why do we still have no case-control studies of the long-term effects of vaccination on mortality? What are the ingredients in the vaccines, usually reported on a package insert which in this case is blank? Why have reports to the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System increased fifty-fold since the mRNA vaccines were introduced?
Maybe it's time to back off our "laser focus" on the propaganda campaign and focus instead on informed consent.
the original Phase 3 Pfizer trial was unblinded after 3 months. In those 3 months, no mortality or hospitalization benefit was observed. In fact, more people died in the vaccine arm than in the placebo. But the clinical trial was so underpowered that it essentially tells you nothing. We have no idea what the long term risks or benefits are in any statistical sense. Anything related to this virus or its vaccines needs to be age stratified. But the shot was pushed on everyone from the start.
There is a contingent that wants to dismiss anyone’s negative experience with the vaccines. I just don’t get it,
What don't you get? There are huge financial incentives to vaccine manufacturers. The CDC has gone all-in on vaccination as the one and only response to COVID. Public relations is their number one priority. If people start asking questions, they get into a regime where they can't justify their policies. It's clear as day what's going on.
"The CDC has gone all-in on vaccination as the one and only response to COVID." Demonstrably false. And as long as drug development and manufacturing is going to be done by for-profit businesses, there will be "huge financial incentives" involved. That's why we have a CDC, FDA, and federal regulatory agencies in general.
Don't you get it?
It seems like another relevant factor might be that many people have a more intense physiological reaction to COVID vaccines and boosters than they do to flu vaccines and boosters. For some busy people, it's a decision about whether you're willing to just go DOWN for a day or two with nasty fevers / headaches / mental haze or to risk another bout of COVID (which may or may not have strongly affected you before). For the record, I got my shot, and advocate vaccines over catching the 'VID, but I think it's worth considering and publicly acknowledging that the effects of the vaccine can be really unpleasant, and some otherwise willing and informed people might just not want to go through it.
Yep, if there were less reactogenic vaccines, I think things would be different.
I found it difficult to find the Novavax anywhere in Southern California so I got the Pfizer. It is challenging to navigate the system to get any vaccine and those who don't want the mRNA's will give up. People are also not testing when they have mild symptoms, even when they have a sore throat, loss of taste /smell, or congestion. They don't believe they could have Covid if they are not REALLY sick. How can we educate the general pubic better?
On top of that the tests people have access to are not very reliable. I never tested positive on a home rapid test when I had Covid only on a PCR. Now I can’t even get a PCR if I want without risking covid exposure at a urgent care full of unmasked sick people and spend over $100 for the privilege.
I disagree with this. The reason there is a discrepancy between rapid tests and PCR tests is that the former are more of an indicator of current infectiousness while the latter can pick up dead RNA from several months ago. If rapid tests are used correctly, as directed, they work fine.
If I didn't have access to a PCR test I would never have known I had covid. RATs are not adequate. Even if I wasn't contagious, I still needed to know I had COVID so I could rest and attempt to recover.
Exactly - my frustration also is you can try to be diligent and test but your negative may be a false negative and you need to test again in 48 hours and You may or may not have COVID anyway. People can't just stay home/isolate for days if they're not sure if it's allergies or cold or Covid.
And, of course, there's the problem presented by poor (or absent) science and statistics education in our schools, the politicization of public health in general and vaccination in particular by right wing extremists (including slick propaganda and social media trolls), and the proliferation of self-appointed "experts" with degrees from the Close Cover Before Striking School of Virology and Motel Management on that great sink of B.S. known as YouTube.
One of the best 1-sentence rants ever. Seriously.
I do my best. :-)
Poor statistics education, like major news organizations and "experts" conflating a CFR (case fatality rate) for covid with an estimated IFR (infection fatality rate) for flu. The true IFR for SARS-COV-2 is under 0.1% for the population as a whole, with most of the population well under that. So the 3% number that was being thrown around in March 2020 was only off by 2 orders of magnitude. The public was lied to by people who should have known better.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/who-says-coronavirus-death-rate-is-3point4percent-globally-higher-than-previously-thought.html
It's called Bayesian updating, buddy. Deal
Well, if you intended to demonstrate what I was talking about, you have succeeded. Congratulations.
It’s been insanely hard to find vaccines for young kids, even in the liberal well vaxxed area where I live. Our pediatrician even wanted it but as of last week it still hasn’t come in. Fortunately we were finally able to get them at Costco, but it was over a month since approval and after earlier Walgreens appts were canceled. If someone doesn’t persevere or is on the fence about it, there’s no way their kids are vaccinated right now. And if the kid is under 3, forget about it.
Congratulations on your article in Scientific American! Love your knack for clarifying and explaining. We definitely need to learn and apply what works (and under what circumstances) in guiding healthy behaviors. Still, that's one thing for people who already believe vaccination is a good idea (at least for them) - and as you point out that's a lot of people. It's more complicated for those who question that - for example because they don't see big waves of hospitalizations following large gatherings, or are actually at low risk of serious consequences of infection, or are hearing the largely unanswered voices of people claiming they have suffered devastating consequences of vaccination (or hearing rumors about supposed cover-ups of DNA contamination (like here: https://worldcouncilforhealth.substack.com/p/urgent-expert-hearing), etc. Got Novavax last week AFTER wading through studies and a dizzying array of commentary on the studies - and I'm a scientist trained to analyze studies! (It helped me decide that I had zero side effects to the first 4 jabs). A big thank you, Dr. Jetelina, for what you're doing here, including convening a community with a range of perspectives.
Interesting experience at CVS during the early roll-out of the Fall Covid Vax: I was picking up an Rx at my local Chicago CVS in September and hoping for a booster. Before I could ask, the clerk said, "We just got our Covid vaccine order, would you like one?" I said, "Yes!" and turned to a bunch of other old folks in the area and said, "They've got the vaccine!" Well, it was like a party. I was so amazed and pleased to see the enthusiasm as we all waited our turn together. Several were also getting the flu shot. The Scientific American article is right on. If we could only make it this easy for everyone...
Wife just got over Covid. Vaxxed to the max including latest variant. Thank god because she was white sick for three days. It’s not a cold.
"Its not a cold". Says it all.