You asked, "Does that mean we are screwed?" Given your observation that people stop pandemics, I'd say the answer is almost certainly "yes" whenever the cattle to human jump is made, if that hasn't already happened.
Well, at least some of us have had lots of time to evaluate different PPE, get accustomed to avoiding environments where aerosolized transmission is likely if not assured and wearing PPE when one must be present in such spaces - that would be the only saving grace from having an epidemic let alone a pandemic of a flu virus following so closely on to COVID.
We were more cautious than anyone I knew personally (not online) during the most active years of the pandemic. We continue to wear well-fitting PPE during travel, etc., and make strategic decisions about big indoor gatherings. But we have middle school and older kids and I can't imagine limiting their lives again in the way that we did for Covid. My personal lack of appetite for this makes me very nervous about it all.
Totally agree with your assessment that Michigan seems like ground zero, but this is because public health is actually functioning and reporting there. Kind of like how Covid variants seemed to be coming out of South Africa for a while, simply b/c they had great surveillance. Will be interesting to see how the Finnish vaccinated farmworker data plays out like canaries in a coal mine. Has anyone followed Louisiana’s lead and installed placards with the Ten Commandments in dairy farms? Is that use of scarce taxpayer dollars better than funding public health as a societal benefit?
Even if we have a vaccine, there is no guarantee farmers would agree to vaccination, unless mandated by the govt. But what govt? State or Federal? I live in PA and much of the farmland in the Eastern part of the state is Amish (although I am unsure how they did with vaccination) or has MAGA signs on the highway. I am concerned that vaccine resistance post SARS-COV-2 will be higher, making spread easier. If if is truly another novel virus, we are screwed as Bill Miller says above. We know HOW to respond, but will we? Ugh.
I think somebody really needs to do a deep dive into how dairy’s dispose of manure, and how they feed the animals. It is common practice for some dairies to feed cows, crushed up chickens or manure from chickens. Additionally, cesspool water from cow manure is spread onto nearby ag land for irrigation. I think this is infecting nearby animals and why the spread is so pervasive and hitting so many animal groups. Additionally, I think prior Covid infection to these animals really needs to be looked at, so if an animal is positive for H5N1 and one is becoming ill or has been found dead, they need to look at Covid antibodies IgG and I GM. That way they are ruling out immune dysfunction and wide immune dysfunction caused from humans to animal groups through Covid infection . I only mention this because there are very odd things happening in our animal groups starting in 2021. 41% of the deer were positive for Covid antibodies in the Midwest. I think they were worried about deer being a reservoir for Covid. Now the deer are having a prion problem. Large amounts of elephants are also dying since 2021 and we’ve been having a rash of respiratory canine illness with no known cause. So what comes very important to public health (Now that we know we shed this through feces) is the control of animal feces and human feces. I think in some states it’s very different and gets dumped into the waterways without a lot of processing.
Yes! This is because these tests pick up flu A which has a lot of similarities to H5N1. It won't differentiate between the two, though. This is a growing concern for fall because we would really like the know the difference if both of them are circulating. I'm sure companies are working on a H5 test if this does jump.
Since it picks up Flu A and until we have the ability to test H5N1. High risk patients should be given antivirals on the assumption that it is Avian Flu. (see my comment)
I’m concerned about the taboo hypothesis that H5N1 may already be widely circulating among humans, and we’re unaware of it simply simply because we’re not looking at the data with clear eyes. I’ve posted some thoughts here:
The simplest explanation for this result is that many humans are currently shedding H5N1 in their feces.
•When we search for H5N1 in animals, we routinely swab anuses. When we search for H5N1 in people, we prissily restrict ourselves to noses. Two grim lessons of Covid are that asymptomatic infection is common and many people continue to shed virus in their stool long after they’ve cleared the virus from their airways. My concern is that we’ve been testing the wrong end of humans.
•H5N1 has been found in "closed herds" (which do not share cattle with other herds)
It's theoretically conceivable that farm workers are transferring H5N1 on their boots, but the idea that infected humans are directly infecting cattle strikes me as far more parsimonious.
•In the Spring of 1918, widespread transmission of bird flu among humans was associated with a mild three-day fever. Almost nobody died of flu in the Spring of 1918. In the Fall of 1918, the virus spontaneously evolved much greater lethality. The wastewater data is a blaring signal telling us we may be reliving the Spring of 1918. Winter is coming!
Incredibly informative, as always, thank you so much. I appreciate, also, that you provided links on various issues, particularly about this: “0% of farms have enrolled in voluntary milk testing.” Lots of interesting insights at the link, including the below, which suggests to me that, once again, we are taking the path of least resistance, rather than grappling with and finding solutions for the hurdles in the way of getting more robust testing:
“more testing is needed to understand how widespread avian influenza is — a threat he described as rapidly growing and potentially catastrophic despite the limited human infections detected to date. But farmers and workers must be reassured that they will not face legal penalties by allowing government officials onto farms and there should be financial incentives to participate in testing, he added.
“We failed — through two administrations — to develop and implement an effective surveillance strategy with Covid, and we are repeating the same mistakes with [this virus],” Adams said. “Farmers are reticent to test for many reasons. Fear of financial harm is a major factor.”
I wonder if people aren't taking H5N1 more seriously because of the upcoming election? The incumbent is more likely to be voted out of office if voters think we're headed towards another pandemic.
Also "H5N1 can result in severe disease." If 6/6 ferrets died after eye or respiratory exposure, isn't H5N1 something far worse than "severe disease"?
Sigh. I so look forward to your wonderful updates, and yet every time after reading I come away more depressed then the last time. Between oncoming pandemics and being on the brink of WWIII and nuclear catastrophe, I suppose I better start enjoying my retirement money now rather then saving for a future a few years from now that seems increasingly doomed. Thanks again! :)
Do you know if cows are being tested proactively in each state? For example, I live in WA state and we have quite a lot of dairy cattle but I’ve heard nothing :/ Thank you as always ❤️
In NY, we just had a regulation come down that dairy cows must be tested within 7 days of being exhibited in a fair. I’m very curious if we will find cases in our state as a result. I don’t think much proactive testing is happening, as it isn’t required other than Michigan.
If we are talking about science, there must be valid, scientific proof. We know that the genetic sequence called SARS CoV2 was never found in a person; a sick person’s lung fluid was sampled in China, and three genetic strands with some percentage similarity to SARS CoV1 was found, and they put those strands together and called it SARS CoV2. Was this created- not discovered in a sick person- genetic sequence put in any living animal to see if it caused illness? No. We should be asking the same questions about H5N1. Has that sequence been isolated? No. What has passed for viral isolation is putting the suspected viral material in a petri dish, adding many other agents, and looking to see if cells breakdown (called cytopathic effects). A control group would do the same experiment without the suspected viral sample and see if cells breakdown. Is there ever a control? No. This science has been so perverted and distorted that it can't even be called science. PCR tests are created on something that's never been found, but was created on a computer. This absolute distortion of science is profitable, because people can be scared by it.
Each of our immune systems deals with so much genetic fragments and other particles with every breath we take, everything we touch, and especially everything we eat. Every time you look out onto a green field you are seeing literally hundreds of trillions of genetic fragments and other particles. They are constantly mutating; anything RNA mutates just about every time it replicates. You are being made afraid of something that literally is around you all of the time. Sometimes you feel some symptoms when your immune system is tackling something, but on a daily basis you feel nothing; that's how effective your immune system is. This is true of all animals too. Why are animals being slaughtered? "It is not uncommon to detect avian influenza in wild birds, as avian influenza viruses circulate freely in those populations without the birds appearing sick. In addition to monitoring for avian influenza in wild bird populations, APHIS monitors for the virus in commercial and backyard birds." https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections
Please always ask for proof. Know what constitutes scientific proof and what doesn't. Especially if you are asked or pressured to take a pharmaceutical injection, isolate from your loved ones, or agree to slaughter thousands of animals on a farm that feeds the community around you. You need to do this work yourself, because even "friendly" epidemiologists don't seem to know the actual science, or don't want want you to be clear about it.
If you don't know much about science, this site breaks down the distorted process of virus “isolation” for you very well, and takes you step by step through the studies on every virus.
My husband uses his ungloved hands to move the grass clippings to lawn bags. Our backyard has a pond and about 18 geese are always on our yard. We also have a lot of deer and ducks. The clippings must contain pounds of feces. He doesn't believe it's a danger. I'd love a response to show to him.
This also makes me wonder about impact on Moderna’s combo Covid/Flu vaccine for the fall. But I think it sounds like if there were a vaccine for H5N1 it would be distinct from “ regular “ flu vaccine anyway?
I believe this is based on WHO data from laboratory-confirmed cases from the past 20 years or so. This is heavily biased toward more serious cases, as they would be the ones most likely to be noticed and tested. So the "real" mortality is likely a lot lower.
But "a lot lower" than 50% could still be pretty high.
Perhaps a more apt header could be "The virus sprints by while we inch towards answers". But I do have a question" are the new vaccines coming online mRNA based or cell culture/chicken egg products? (worked with the latter back in the day (1970!))
You asked, "Does that mean we are screwed?" Given your observation that people stop pandemics, I'd say the answer is almost certainly "yes" whenever the cattle to human jump is made, if that hasn't already happened.
I share the same sentiment. I couldn’t think of a worse time than having an epidemic let alone a pandemic right now.
Well, at least some of us have had lots of time to evaluate different PPE, get accustomed to avoiding environments where aerosolized transmission is likely if not assured and wearing PPE when one must be present in such spaces - that would be the only saving grace from having an epidemic let alone a pandemic of a flu virus following so closely on to COVID.
We were more cautious than anyone I knew personally (not online) during the most active years of the pandemic. We continue to wear well-fitting PPE during travel, etc., and make strategic decisions about big indoor gatherings. But we have middle school and older kids and I can't imagine limiting their lives again in the way that we did for Covid. My personal lack of appetite for this makes me very nervous about it all.
Agreed. My kids missed out on so much, and I won’t do that to them again unless it is truly life and death.
Totally agree with your assessment that Michigan seems like ground zero, but this is because public health is actually functioning and reporting there. Kind of like how Covid variants seemed to be coming out of South Africa for a while, simply b/c they had great surveillance. Will be interesting to see how the Finnish vaccinated farmworker data plays out like canaries in a coal mine. Has anyone followed Louisiana’s lead and installed placards with the Ten Commandments in dairy farms? Is that use of scarce taxpayer dollars better than funding public health as a societal benefit?
Even if we have a vaccine, there is no guarantee farmers would agree to vaccination, unless mandated by the govt. But what govt? State or Federal? I live in PA and much of the farmland in the Eastern part of the state is Amish (although I am unsure how they did with vaccination) or has MAGA signs on the highway. I am concerned that vaccine resistance post SARS-COV-2 will be higher, making spread easier. If if is truly another novel virus, we are screwed as Bill Miller says above. We know HOW to respond, but will we? Ugh.
I think somebody really needs to do a deep dive into how dairy’s dispose of manure, and how they feed the animals. It is common practice for some dairies to feed cows, crushed up chickens or manure from chickens. Additionally, cesspool water from cow manure is spread onto nearby ag land for irrigation. I think this is infecting nearby animals and why the spread is so pervasive and hitting so many animal groups. Additionally, I think prior Covid infection to these animals really needs to be looked at, so if an animal is positive for H5N1 and one is becoming ill or has been found dead, they need to look at Covid antibodies IgG and I GM. That way they are ruling out immune dysfunction and wide immune dysfunction caused from humans to animal groups through Covid infection . I only mention this because there are very odd things happening in our animal groups starting in 2021. 41% of the deer were positive for Covid antibodies in the Midwest. I think they were worried about deer being a reservoir for Covid. Now the deer are having a prion problem. Large amounts of elephants are also dying since 2021 and we’ve been having a rash of respiratory canine illness with no known cause. So what comes very important to public health (Now that we know we shed this through feces) is the control of animal feces and human feces. I think in some states it’s very different and gets dumped into the waterways without a lot of processing.
Would our current flu tests (Cepheid) be positive if someone had H5N1?
Yes! This is because these tests pick up flu A which has a lot of similarities to H5N1. It won't differentiate between the two, though. This is a growing concern for fall because we would really like the know the difference if both of them are circulating. I'm sure companies are working on a H5 test if this does jump.
Since it picks up Flu A and until we have the ability to test H5N1. High risk patients should be given antivirals on the assumption that it is Avian Flu. (see my comment)
I’m concerned about the taboo hypothesis that H5N1 may already be widely circulating among humans, and we’re unaware of it simply simply because we’re not looking at the data with clear eyes. I’ve posted some thoughts here:
https://cbuck.substack.com/p/h5n1-is-messing-with-texans
In bullet-point form:
•H5N1 has been detected in wastewater sources that are remote from any dairy farms https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-14/bird-flu-traces-emerge-in-austin-sewage-far-from-dairy-farms
The simplest explanation for this result is that many humans are currently shedding H5N1 in their feces.
•When we search for H5N1 in animals, we routinely swab anuses. When we search for H5N1 in people, we prissily restrict ourselves to noses. Two grim lessons of Covid are that asymptomatic infection is common and many people continue to shed virus in their stool long after they’ve cleared the virus from their airways. My concern is that we’ve been testing the wrong end of humans.
•H5N1 has been found in "closed herds" (which do not share cattle with other herds)
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/sites/default/files/hpai-h5n1-dairy-cattle-mi-epi-invest.pdf
It's theoretically conceivable that farm workers are transferring H5N1 on their boots, but the idea that infected humans are directly infecting cattle strikes me as far more parsimonious.
•In the Spring of 1918, widespread transmission of bird flu among humans was associated with a mild three-day fever. Almost nobody died of flu in the Spring of 1918. In the Fall of 1918, the virus spontaneously evolved much greater lethality. The wastewater data is a blaring signal telling us we may be reliving the Spring of 1918. Winter is coming!
Incredibly informative, as always, thank you so much. I appreciate, also, that you provided links on various issues, particularly about this: “0% of farms have enrolled in voluntary milk testing.” Lots of interesting insights at the link, including the below, which suggests to me that, once again, we are taking the path of least resistance, rather than grappling with and finding solutions for the hurdles in the way of getting more robust testing:
“more testing is needed to understand how widespread avian influenza is — a threat he described as rapidly growing and potentially catastrophic despite the limited human infections detected to date. But farmers and workers must be reassured that they will not face legal penalties by allowing government officials onto farms and there should be financial incentives to participate in testing, he added.
“We failed — through two administrations — to develop and implement an effective surveillance strategy with Covid, and we are repeating the same mistakes with [this virus],” Adams said. “Farmers are reticent to test for many reasons. Fear of financial harm is a major factor.”
I wonder if people aren't taking H5N1 more seriously because of the upcoming election? The incumbent is more likely to be voted out of office if voters think we're headed towards another pandemic.
Also "H5N1 can result in severe disease." If 6/6 ferrets died after eye or respiratory exposure, isn't H5N1 something far worse than "severe disease"?
As mentioned, these ferrets were immune naive and are notoriously susceptible to Avian viruses. I wouldn't put too much stock in this.
Cheese. What about cheese. Does aging have any impact? Not referring to european raw milk cheese, just ordinary cheeses here in the US?
Inquiring cheese lovers want to know!
And yogurt?
Sigh. I so look forward to your wonderful updates, and yet every time after reading I come away more depressed then the last time. Between oncoming pandemics and being on the brink of WWIII and nuclear catastrophe, I suppose I better start enjoying my retirement money now rather then saving for a future a few years from now that seems increasingly doomed. Thanks again! :)
I feed a lot of wild birds in my yard in Phoenix and also have birdbaths. Should I be wearing gloves when around the birds and their poop?
Came here to ask the same question about birdbaths and feeders.
Do you know if cows are being tested proactively in each state? For example, I live in WA state and we have quite a lot of dairy cattle but I’ve heard nothing :/ Thank you as always ❤️
In NY, we just had a regulation come down that dairy cows must be tested within 7 days of being exhibited in a fair. I’m very curious if we will find cases in our state as a result. I don’t think much proactive testing is happening, as it isn’t required other than Michigan.
I seem to recall there is another Midwest state that also requiring this, perhaps Wisconsin?
The fair testing? Multiple states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota. It’s a good idea, I just wish the required testing extended beyond fair attendance.
Hard to keep up all this stuff. A story that's still being written,
I would like to go to the end to see how it comes out.
If we are talking about science, there must be valid, scientific proof. We know that the genetic sequence called SARS CoV2 was never found in a person; a sick person’s lung fluid was sampled in China, and three genetic strands with some percentage similarity to SARS CoV1 was found, and they put those strands together and called it SARS CoV2. Was this created- not discovered in a sick person- genetic sequence put in any living animal to see if it caused illness? No. We should be asking the same questions about H5N1. Has that sequence been isolated? No. What has passed for viral isolation is putting the suspected viral material in a petri dish, adding many other agents, and looking to see if cells breakdown (called cytopathic effects). A control group would do the same experiment without the suspected viral sample and see if cells breakdown. Is there ever a control? No. This science has been so perverted and distorted that it can't even be called science. PCR tests are created on something that's never been found, but was created on a computer. This absolute distortion of science is profitable, because people can be scared by it.
Each of our immune systems deals with so much genetic fragments and other particles with every breath we take, everything we touch, and especially everything we eat. Every time you look out onto a green field you are seeing literally hundreds of trillions of genetic fragments and other particles. They are constantly mutating; anything RNA mutates just about every time it replicates. You are being made afraid of something that literally is around you all of the time. Sometimes you feel some symptoms when your immune system is tackling something, but on a daily basis you feel nothing; that's how effective your immune system is. This is true of all animals too. Why are animals being slaughtered? "It is not uncommon to detect avian influenza in wild birds, as avian influenza viruses circulate freely in those populations without the birds appearing sick. In addition to monitoring for avian influenza in wild bird populations, APHIS monitors for the virus in commercial and backyard birds." https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections
Please always ask for proof. Know what constitutes scientific proof and what doesn't. Especially if you are asked or pressured to take a pharmaceutical injection, isolate from your loved ones, or agree to slaughter thousands of animals on a farm that feeds the community around you. You need to do this work yourself, because even "friendly" epidemiologists don't seem to know the actual science, or don't want want you to be clear about it.
Paper supposedly isolating SARS CoV2:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2008-3#ref-CR29
Paper supposedly isolating H5N1:
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/51613393_Isolation_and_characterization_of_influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1_that_caused_the_first_highly_pathogenic_avian_influenza_outbreak_in_chicken_in_Bhutan
If you don't know much about science, this site breaks down the distorted process of virus “isolation” for you very well, and takes you step by step through the studies on every virus.
https://viroliegy.com/2021/09/06/creating-the-sars-cov-2-genome/
My husband uses his ungloved hands to move the grass clippings to lawn bags. Our backyard has a pond and about 18 geese are always on our yard. We also have a lot of deer and ducks. The clippings must contain pounds of feces. He doesn't believe it's a danger. I'd love a response to show to him.
This also makes me wonder about impact on Moderna’s combo Covid/Flu vaccine for the fall. But I think it sounds like if there were a vaccine for H5N1 it would be distinct from “ regular “ flu vaccine anyway?
I've seen a few sources say that H5N1 has something like a 50% mortality rate among humans - is that really true?
I believe this is based on WHO data from laboratory-confirmed cases from the past 20 years or so. This is heavily biased toward more serious cases, as they would be the ones most likely to be noticed and tested. So the "real" mortality is likely a lot lower.
But "a lot lower" than 50% could still be pretty high.
Perhaps a more apt header could be "The virus sprints by while we inch towards answers". But I do have a question" are the new vaccines coming online mRNA based or cell culture/chicken egg products? (worked with the latter back in the day (1970!))