Yikes...am I glad I read this before I looked at anything else about the Delta cases in Israel. I am so relieved to be able to read and clearly understand your explanations. Again, your work is SO important, I know you've got to be tired like I am (PICU and School RN here) but we need you! Thanks 0x
Thank you for explaining this in the incredible way you do. Hard not to panic, but your scientific explanation (for non scientists) is unbelievably appreciated. Trying to stay ahead of this every changing virus!
Thanks for a clear explanation of 'base rate fallacy' or 'bias'. I have never actually heard the phenomenon given that name, but this has been confusing for a lot of people for a long time, since well before COVID. When I explain it, I usually add the observation that cases arise among those who are susceptible. In a population where an imperfect vaccine has been used, and where infection confers immunity, the susceptible population is the sum of two groups: those not yet infected and unvaccinated; and those in whom the vaccine did not 'take'. As vaccine coverage goes up, the number of people in the population with vaccine failure goes up, and the fraction of susceptibles who are vaccine failures goes up. As you point out, in a population that is 100% vaccinated with an imperfect vaccine, all the susceptibles and thus all the cases will be among the vaccinated.
Thank you so very much for this informative analysis! Am I correct in assuming that your current having more questions than answers, this is why you’ve yet to weigh in on WHO recommendation for vaccinated individuals to begin wearing masks again?
Yikes...am I glad I read this before I looked at anything else about the Delta cases in Israel. I am so relieved to be able to read and clearly understand your explanations. Again, your work is SO important, I know you've got to be tired like I am (PICU and School RN here) but we need you! Thanks 0x
Thank you for explaining this in the incredible way you do. Hard not to panic, but your scientific explanation (for non scientists) is unbelievably appreciated. Trying to stay ahead of this every changing virus!
Thanks for a clear explanation of 'base rate fallacy' or 'bias'. I have never actually heard the phenomenon given that name, but this has been confusing for a lot of people for a long time, since well before COVID. When I explain it, I usually add the observation that cases arise among those who are susceptible. In a population where an imperfect vaccine has been used, and where infection confers immunity, the susceptible population is the sum of two groups: those not yet infected and unvaccinated; and those in whom the vaccine did not 'take'. As vaccine coverage goes up, the number of people in the population with vaccine failure goes up, and the fraction of susceptibles who are vaccine failures goes up. As you point out, in a population that is 100% vaccinated with an imperfect vaccine, all the susceptibles and thus all the cases will be among the vaccinated.
Thank you so very much for this informative analysis! Am I correct in assuming that your current having more questions than answers, this is why you’ve yet to weigh in on WHO recommendation for vaccinated individuals to begin wearing masks again?