Impressively, we’re already getting peer reviewed studies assessing the effectiveness of mask requirements for the Fall 2021 school year. Last week, three rigorous were released… Impact on cases In the first study, scientists assessed pediatric county case rates in schools with and without school mask requirements from July 1–September 4, 2021. They looked at all 3,142 U.S. counties but only analyzed schools if they had a clear mask policy (using this amazing
Very good piece, you're my first paid subscription on substack.
One concept with masks that Taleb pointed out in his recent paper is that most attempts to study them are not powerful enough to pick up their effectiveness.
For example, suppose masks are 100% effective. Suppose 2% of transmissions happen at the office and the office imposes a mass requirement. What will happen to transmissions?
What 99% of people on the internet will do is say "well cases went down 2% therefore masks don't work" without realizing in the above 2% actually indicates masks are perfect!
To test masks you need to know where transmissions happen and how often people wear masks in those places. We don't have a good handle as far as I can tell on even the first question.
The other way to test masks would be a purposeful challenge trial, but don't expect that anytime soon.
In the meantime creative ways to find answers in the data like this are what we need.
Can you help us understand why the pediatric info was submitted today, but pfizer is waiting to submit eua “until after the initial review” and what that means for parents? Any insider info?
Also a new subscriber would like school board pdf please.
Very good piece, you're my first paid subscription on substack.
One concept with masks that Taleb pointed out in his recent paper is that most attempts to study them are not powerful enough to pick up their effectiveness.
For example, suppose masks are 100% effective. Suppose 2% of transmissions happen at the office and the office imposes a mass requirement. What will happen to transmissions?
What 99% of people on the internet will do is say "well cases went down 2% therefore masks don't work" without realizing in the above 2% actually indicates masks are perfect!
To test masks you need to know where transmissions happen and how often people wear masks in those places. We don't have a good handle as far as I can tell on even the first question.
The other way to test masks would be a purposeful challenge trial, but don't expect that anytime soon.
In the meantime creative ways to find answers in the data like this are what we need.
Can you help us understand why the pediatric info was submitted today, but pfizer is waiting to submit eua “until after the initial review” and what that means for parents? Any insider info?
Just subscribed and I’d love the school board pdf. THANK YOU!!
New subscriber. I would like the school board pdf. Thanks!
New subscriber. I would like the school board pdf. Thank you!
New subscriber would like school board pdf please.