I hope everyone in the States had a fantastic Thanksgiving (even if you’re a Dallas Cowboys football fan). I hate to ruin the holiday, but… We have a new variant. I’ve not seen this much anxiety ridden chatter among scientists about a COVID19 variant before. Even among the calm, cool, and collected scientists.
Thank you so much for this rapid explanation of what's happening with this new variant. I also appreciated your discussion of travel bans, validating my impression of them as well.
Hi Dr. Jetelina, if this variant has the ability to evade vaccines, therapies, and natural immunity as South African scientists suggest it may, could we not have both Delta and Omicron hitting us at the same time? Wouldn’t Delta not be able to stop Omicron because Omicron wouldn’t recognize Delta antibodies and be able to reinfect those people? Could people have both Delta and Omicron simultaneously?
Do we know how this is going to affect the vaccine trials for under 5s? If that vaccine is eventually approved but we're dealing with Omicron now, will our kids have to wait even longer for no real reason again?
Is there any evidence to support you hypothesis that "So this likely means it mutated over time in one, likely immunocompromised, individual" What if we find that the mutations arose in a fully vaccinated individual? What if we find they occurred in an animal reservoir?
I find this concerning: "mRNA vaccines are really easy to alter. Once the minor change is made, only 2 dozen people need to enroll in a trial to make sure the updated vaccine works. Then it can be distributed to arms. Because the change is small, an updated vaccine doesn’t need Phase III trials and/or regularity approval. " Where is this codified? In what kind of "trial"? A challenge trial?
@Katelyn, where are you getting your new variant info? I need an early source. Right now, for B.1.1.529, that was you. Thanks for the in-depth information. I'm now officially concerned.
Read it'll be 100 days from now to shots in arm for reconfigured mRNA vaccine. Let's hope Omicron isn't much more transmissable than Delta so it'll take a long time to edge it out. Delta R0 is something like 6-7 - a beast of a respiratory virus. Hard to imagine something beating it by much...
New Concerning Variant: B.1.1.529
Well, one meaning of the word "Nu" in Yiddish is "Well?" As in, "Well, what did you expect????"
Thank you for sharing such a thorough summary collated in a short period of time
Thank you so much for this rapid explanation of what's happening with this new variant. I also appreciated your discussion of travel bans, validating my impression of them as well.
You mentioned PCR tests are able to detect the new variant. What about the antigen tests schools and families are using at home (eg. BinaxNOW)?
Thank you for the reliable information.
Hi Dr. Jetelina, if this variant has the ability to evade vaccines, therapies, and natural immunity as South African scientists suggest it may, could we not have both Delta and Omicron hitting us at the same time? Wouldn’t Delta not be able to stop Omicron because Omicron wouldn’t recognize Delta antibodies and be able to reinfect those people? Could people have both Delta and Omicron simultaneously?
Do we know how this is going to affect the vaccine trials for under 5s? If that vaccine is eventually approved but we're dealing with Omicron now, will our kids have to wait even longer for no real reason again?
One subject that may be of interest to your readers is the surveillance/sequencing effort. Questions like:
Is sequencing performed on all fully vaccinated breakthrough cases in the US?
Is sequencing performed on all partially vaccinated breakthrough cases in the US?
What is the rate of surveillance sequencing on vaccine naive cases the US?
What is the pipeline lag time from specimen collection to sequence availability in the US?
Are break-through specimens prioritized over non-breakthrough in the US?
How are these handled differently in other countries?
I would like to know if current B.1.1.529 positive cases appear to cause more severe disease?
Is there any evidence to support you hypothesis that "So this likely means it mutated over time in one, likely immunocompromised, individual" What if we find that the mutations arose in a fully vaccinated individual? What if we find they occurred in an animal reservoir?
I find this concerning: "mRNA vaccines are really easy to alter. Once the minor change is made, only 2 dozen people need to enroll in a trial to make sure the updated vaccine works. Then it can be distributed to arms. Because the change is small, an updated vaccine doesn’t need Phase III trials and/or regularity approval. " Where is this codified? In what kind of "trial"? A challenge trial?
@Katelyn, where are you getting your new variant info? I need an early source. Right now, for B.1.1.529, that was you. Thanks for the in-depth information. I'm now officially concerned.
Any indication of if the existing lateral flow tests will still detect this variant?
Read it'll be 100 days from now to shots in arm for reconfigured mRNA vaccine. Let's hope Omicron isn't much more transmissable than Delta so it'll take a long time to edge it out. Delta R0 is something like 6-7 - a beast of a respiratory virus. Hard to imagine something beating it by much...
I'm seeing it referred to as Omicron elsewhere, what gives?
Do we know anything about the severity of symptoms in those in which B.1.1.529 has been detected? Hospitalizations? Deaths?