16 Comments
Mar 14, 2021Liked by Katelyn Jetelina

Can we do a deep dive into exactly why “protection from severe disease” is 90% for Pfizer and 100% for all the others? Thanks.

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author

yeah good question. this is just a sample size number. for example, 1 out of 10 people got severe disease with pfizer compared to zero in moderna. This isn’t likely meaningful

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Mar 14, 2021Liked by Katelyn Jetelina

These new data from the Lancet on the decrease in transmission after the first dose support the case for lengthening the time between the first and second doses of the mRNA vaccines. This approach would certainly get us to herd immunity faster. Are you aware of any data in the pipeline that would further support delaying the first dose? It would probably take a lot for the FDA to endorse a change in dosing regimens.

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it’s a really good question and i don’t know. this would require another series of formal clinical trials, which we just don’t have the time for

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Thanks for replying. You are probably right. the 21 and 28 day intervals for the mRNA vaccines seem arbitrary. (Can you think of any other vaccine regimen that has a doe interval under 3 months, let alone 1 month?) I am guessing the clinical trials were designed that way because the manufacturers (understandably) wanted to get their data out ASAP. Nevertheless, I do wish Pfizer and Moderna had the foresight to conduct smaller trials with 90 day intervals. The results would have come in a month ago and would likely have been positive. We will start to get some real world data from the UK where they have extended the intervals but I doubt that will be sufficient. Would love to see a deep dive on this topic.

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Mar 14, 2021Liked by Katelyn Jetelina

Question on the Asymptomatic transmission row. For example are pfizer vaccinated person's 72% possible of transmitting covid asymptomatically or asymptomatic transmission is reduced by that percentage range? Thanks for all you do it is so incredibly helpful.

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author

it’s reduced by 72%. for next round, i will definitely make that clearer in the table!

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Thank you!

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yes, i could have definitely made that clearer! it’s a 72% reduction in transmission.

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Can you please clarify what is meant by "asymptomatic disease" in this context of your very helpful post? "Among those with at least one mRNA vaccine dose, asymptomatic disease (and thus transmission) was reduced by 72%..." I understand the meaning of the two words but what does it mean that asymp disease was reduced in someone who has received a vaccine dose? Does that mean that they tested vaccinated people and among those who tested positive for the virus, some had symptoms and some did not; and compared with controls who were unvaccinated and ... something drops 72%. That's where I get lost.

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Eric Topol Md is quoted on why the Pfizer/Israeli press releases on transmission statistics are ot to be trusted, and that we have no idea what transmission blocking capabilities of the vaccine are based upon them.

https://www.wired.com/story/we-still-dont-know-how-well-covid-vaccines-stop-transmission/?fbclid=IwAR3Mzt4x6jp-qCfRzKyOcwIYaOUoldIP7Bxfo_PlyX5u6WM9sPXjyVHPIpo

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“Eric Topol Md is quoted on why the Pfizer/Israeli press releases on transmission statistics are ot to be trusted, and that we have no idea what transmission blocking capabilities of the vaccine are based upon them.

https://www.wired.com/story/we-still-dont-know-how-well-covid-vaccines-stop-transmission/?fbclid=IwAR3Mzt4x6jp-qCfRzKyOcwIYaOUoldIP7Bxfo_PlyX5u6WM9sPXjyVHPIpo

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“Eric Topol Md is quoted on why the Pfizer/Israeli press releases on transmission statistics are not to be trusted, and that we have no idea what transmission blocking capabilities of the vaccine are.”

https://www.wired.com/story/we-still-dont-know-how-well-covid-vaccines-stop-transmission/?fbclid=IwAR3Mzt4x6jp-qCfRzKyOcwIYaOUoldIP7Bxfo_PlyX5u6WM9sPXjyVHPIpo

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Is there any information on when a vaccine would be available for kids under the age of 16?

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we are hoping that 12+ will have vaccines by Fall

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Should Children Be Vaccinated Against COVID? When will vaccines be available? With Dr. Paul Offit

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/946809?src=wnl_edit_tpal&uac=150130SG&impID=3245235&faf=1

(You need to enroll, which is free)

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