Thank you for your work Katelyn, the clearest and most “justs the facts” analysis I can find anywhere. Even though you put all this work out for free, I subscribed just to thank you for your work.
no news yet. I'm still hopeful we will get the data soon. this is taking a while because the under 5s have a different dosage than the 5-11 year olds and 12+ year olds. we need to make sure it works and is safe, which unfortunately takes a while.
So some of us, my wife and I🙋♀️🙋♂️, got boosted super early, Aug 1, based on Israeli boosting data. We are not worried about severe disease for us but we have a 9 month old that we dont want to take any risks transmitting to. I would love to see more of a lens on Israeli booster effectiveness/waning against Omicron since it presents a good use case on booster durability due to early adoption. Thank you
I've taken Israeli data with a wide margin of error--they are very good about going on lockdown, so back of napkin, I feel their high success rates are probably helped along by these lockdowns (aka, inflated figures). Would love an MPH/Epi opinion of my read.
One of the most alarming statements today was the acknowledgement that we do not have the testing capacity to record the projected number of new cases. "We will run out of tests, reagents, and plastic. . . " While we continue to shift scientific and healthcare resources towards the pandemic, I am concerned about losing ground on advances we've made in other areas, such as Parkinson's research and cancer.
Just subscribed to support your work and ask this question — do you know if there are updated versions of Dr. Bedford's graphs? Looks like the ones you're using are ~10days old. Thanks!
I keep wonder about my newly fully vaccinated 11-year-old. They have a strong immune system to begin with, and the high levels of antibodies that initial immunization brings--but not that third shot, which apparently operates differently in the body. What will their immunity be compared with someone who has received the booster?
yes, so evidence coming out of the UK is showing that those that got the second shot within the past 9 weeks is AS GOOD as those adults that got three shots. i'm confident that 5-11 year olds that have both doses are well protected going into the winter months.
I am so angry to learn that vaccination for 6 months-under 5 years is being delayed (they had been predicting shots would be going into arms for 2-4s in "early" 2022). I hope you'll write something about it. My questions are, first, why didn't they test different dosing levels like they did with the 5-11 year olds? That just seems like it would have been prudent! Second, why aren't they seeking authorization for the 6mo-under 2 year olds if those shots appear to be effective?
By delayed I mean that for a long time they were predicting that Pfizer would be applying for authorization for 5-11 year olds by the end of October and 2-5s soon after or a month after. Later, after the 5-11 year old data came in, they were saying they would be able to submit data on the younger kids "by the end of the year" and people like Fauci were saying that the youngest kids would be able to start getting their vaccines in "early 2022." Yesterday (Friday) Pfizer suddenly announced a delay to test a third dose in both the 6 month-2 year and 2-5s because of disappointing results in the 2-5s. Thus, they don't expect to submit any data for approval until the second quarter of 2022.
1) What does the data look like for Moderna vaccines? I haven’t found much at all that assesses Moderna’s effectiveness against Omicron.
2) Since we have seen that 2-dose Pfizer takes a huge hit against Omicron, why is there no rush to get the 5-16 age group boosted/3rd dosed?
3) I am confused by the messaging around our current vaccines. We hear that they are MUCH less protective against Omicron, but then Fauci said our current vaccines are fine. Which is it? And are companies pursuing an Omicron-specific booster, or not?
4) I am increasingly concerned that people with large platforms are NOT amplifying the fact that something like 30-70% (depending on the source) of people who get COVID end up with Long Covid, to include long-term dementia-like/MS-like symptoms. And that appears to be the case irrespective of vaccination status. The acute phase of COVID is scary, but there needs to be much better messaging about the fact that “not dying” doesn’t mean we come out of COVID just fine. If we don’t try fight COVID with everything we have (masks, ventilation, vaccination, antivirals), we will be caught in this loop for years and masses of people will be disabled. We should be putting far more emphasis on this!!
Agreed, if you don't have Pfizer there is less info around. I know people with the JnJ and they are very confused/in the dark.
Idk why there isn't more attention put into protecting kids. Probably a combination of the assumption that kids have better natural resilience and that kids are a lower priority to the power-that-be because kids aren't workers.
I think the confusion around vaccines is a result of terrible communication decisions. Vaccines got sold as a ticket out of the pandemic, which is a lie because we cannot exit the pandemic individually. Don't get me wrong, vaccines are an excellent and critical tool in our public health strategy, but they should not be our only tool.
1000% agree that we need to amplify attention on the issue of Long-COVID. I have also seen that 30% rate, though the 70% is something I haven't seen yet. I think that Long-COVID doesn't get attention for a variety of reasons; a lot of attention is focused on surging hospitalizations, our culture always sweeps disability/chronic illness under a rug, leadership/management wants to keep people working so its advantageous (for them, in a shortsighted way) to not talk about Long-COVID. I am grateful that there are Long-COVID advocacy groups out there (like Body Politic, which testified to members of Congress about Long-COVID), some publications are starting to pay attention, and that HHS/DOJ issued guidance that Long-COVID "an be a disability under the ADA, Section 504, and Section 1557 if it substantially limits one or more major life activities." But so much more needs to happen to keep people safe!
I have an 11 year old that just got her second dose and a 14 year old and 15 year olds that got theirs in June. No boosters available obviously. Are they just sitting ducks again?
I have the exact same situation with my three kids of the same age. My two teens are boys (2nd doses in June). I’m wondering about them now being sitting ducks in terms of COVID but also about the very rare risk of myocarditis with a booster since they’re the exact group most likely to be affected by that. The decision fatigue of conscious, intentional parenting in a pandemic has finally worn me down to a nub of a human, it feels.
Does the immunity boost from the third shot wane? Are these studies showing the effectiveness of the booster take into account how recently the shot was given? I'm 60 and my husband is 63, and we have an immuno-comprised 32 yo daughter with other disabilities. We got our booster shots in late August. Are we as protected as if we had gotten the booster more recently?
There's a lot of questions for YLE to respond to here, so in case it's useful - if you are worried about whether you're still immune, you can get a serology test (antibody test) to check at any time. Your GP should also have an informed opinion because they know your medical history and this can come into play too. For some people, the third shot is what's required to have a basic vaccination as their immune system is slower to respond. For most people, two shots are full vaccination and the third shot some months later is a booster. Everyone's immune system is different so there's no exact period for all, but the serology test will give you a straight answer on your current immunity status pretty quickly.
We keep hearing that vaxxed and boosted provides the best protection. I am curious if the 5-11 age group are considered as protected as the boosted adults once they have both doses and the two-week wait?
Thank you for the updates. Does any of this change your own holiday travel plans, or your own sense of what’s reasonable? (Weren’t you planning a (cautious) cross-country trip that included airports?) Holiday travel is seeming less and less reasonable to me with each passing day.
I can imagine enormous numbers of people getting sick away from their usual health care system and doctors, and being “stuck” at their destinations, navigating the unfamiliar, until they’re well again. Seems like a recipe for disaster. Or at least making a very bad situation worse.
Yeah, agreed. Travel does not seem wise right now. I'm personally not sure about even local gatherings. A vaccinated, local friend group invited me to a holiday party on Friday and I declined in the invite in the interest of being cautious. Turns out a toddler (too young to be vaccinated) was present at the party and the parents learned shortly afterwards about an outbreak at their daycare. Testing revealed that the toddler is COVID positive. All the party-goers got tests done and are isolating until they learn the results. I am worried about them all, though also feeling relieved that I chose not to go to that party.
Yes. We are invited to a smallish gathering tonight, about six families and we’ve met with these folks a few times in the past couple years, post vaccine, but outdoors. I wasn’t fully onboard with an indoor event but with omicron I’m thinking we’ll stay home.
It’s a tough balance. I’m really sad not to see these people.
I have the same quandry and have made up my mind to cancel. We don't even know at this point whether moving events outside makes much of a difference with Omicron. Laurie Garrett was pretty grim on TV yesterday too.
Thank you Hinda, I'll try to look that up. My husband hasn't seen any of his family in two years and I so much don't want to disappoint him, but it's looking worse and worse.
I just wanted to say thank you. This is an amazing summary.
Thank you for your work Katelyn, the clearest and most “justs the facts” analysis I can find anywhere. Even though you put all this work out for free, I subscribed just to thank you for your work.
Any news on the vax for kids under 5? It feels like Pfizer forgot them. 😩
no news yet. I'm still hopeful we will get the data soon. this is taking a while because the under 5s have a different dosage than the 5-11 year olds and 12+ year olds. we need to make sure it works and is safe, which unfortunately takes a while.
I don't think it's Pfizer. I know a couple of under 5s in the trials. It is likely the FDA process.
I am beyond frustrated by the complete silence on this topic. I search for updates every day. They've said NOTHING for WEEKS.
Oh, they just love making a liar out of me. Pfizer just said they "expect to submit an application...in the first half of 2022."
Source please? Would like to see. TIA!
So some of us, my wife and I🙋♀️🙋♂️, got boosted super early, Aug 1, based on Israeli boosting data. We are not worried about severe disease for us but we have a 9 month old that we dont want to take any risks transmitting to. I would love to see more of a lens on Israeli booster effectiveness/waning against Omicron since it presents a good use case on booster durability due to early adoption. Thank you
I feel you, we have a six month old.
I've taken Israeli data with a wide margin of error--they are very good about going on lockdown, so back of napkin, I feel their high success rates are probably helped along by these lockdowns (aka, inflated figures). Would love an MPH/Epi opinion of my read.
We’re gonna get another booster this week
Thanks for another great article, Dr. Jetelina!
Question, do you know if there are any studies investigating/comparing the relationships between the variants and Long-COVID?
unfortunately haven't seen anything yet. this will take a long time to untangle.
One of the most alarming statements today was the acknowledgement that we do not have the testing capacity to record the projected number of new cases. "We will run out of tests, reagents, and plastic. . . " While we continue to shift scientific and healthcare resources towards the pandemic, I am concerned about losing ground on advances we've made in other areas, such as Parkinson's research and cancer.
Just subscribed to support your work and ask this question — do you know if there are updated versions of Dr. Bedford's graphs? Looks like the ones you're using are ~10days old. Thanks!
all R(t) are done retrospectively. they can only look backwards 7 to 10 days. he's using a 10 day look back right now.
I keep wonder about my newly fully vaccinated 11-year-old. They have a strong immune system to begin with, and the high levels of antibodies that initial immunization brings--but not that third shot, which apparently operates differently in the body. What will their immunity be compared with someone who has received the booster?
yes, so evidence coming out of the UK is showing that those that got the second shot within the past 9 weeks is AS GOOD as those adults that got three shots. i'm confident that 5-11 year olds that have both doses are well protected going into the winter months.
Thank you so much for posting this. Would you mind posting a link to this data?
I am so angry to learn that vaccination for 6 months-under 5 years is being delayed (they had been predicting shots would be going into arms for 2-4s in "early" 2022). I hope you'll write something about it. My questions are, first, why didn't they test different dosing levels like they did with the 5-11 year olds? That just seems like it would have been prudent! Second, why aren't they seeking authorization for the 6mo-under 2 year olds if those shots appear to be effective?
What do you mean, delayed? I've missed this info, would you share your source?
By delayed I mean that for a long time they were predicting that Pfizer would be applying for authorization for 5-11 year olds by the end of October and 2-5s soon after or a month after. Later, after the 5-11 year old data came in, they were saying they would be able to submit data on the younger kids "by the end of the year" and people like Fauci were saying that the youngest kids would be able to start getting their vaccines in "early 2022." Yesterday (Friday) Pfizer suddenly announced a delay to test a third dose in both the 6 month-2 year and 2-5s because of disappointing results in the 2-5s. Thus, they don't expect to submit any data for approval until the second quarter of 2022.
Here's their announcement. https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-provide-update-ongoing-studies-covid-19
And here's the related article where I first read about it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/12/17/pfizer-vaccine-young-children-third-shot/
Thank you, and, holy moly! What *is* the ethical argument to delay filing for 6mo - 2years if it's proving effective and safe?!
Sounds like they are trying to get the posting right.
Is there any change in guidance about the low likelihood of surface contamination transmission vs airborne? Thanks.
1) What does the data look like for Moderna vaccines? I haven’t found much at all that assesses Moderna’s effectiveness against Omicron.
2) Since we have seen that 2-dose Pfizer takes a huge hit against Omicron, why is there no rush to get the 5-16 age group boosted/3rd dosed?
3) I am confused by the messaging around our current vaccines. We hear that they are MUCH less protective against Omicron, but then Fauci said our current vaccines are fine. Which is it? And are companies pursuing an Omicron-specific booster, or not?
4) I am increasingly concerned that people with large platforms are NOT amplifying the fact that something like 30-70% (depending on the source) of people who get COVID end up with Long Covid, to include long-term dementia-like/MS-like symptoms. And that appears to be the case irrespective of vaccination status. The acute phase of COVID is scary, but there needs to be much better messaging about the fact that “not dying” doesn’t mean we come out of COVID just fine. If we don’t try fight COVID with everything we have (masks, ventilation, vaccination, antivirals), we will be caught in this loop for years and masses of people will be disabled. We should be putting far more emphasis on this!!
Agreed, if you don't have Pfizer there is less info around. I know people with the JnJ and they are very confused/in the dark.
Idk why there isn't more attention put into protecting kids. Probably a combination of the assumption that kids have better natural resilience and that kids are a lower priority to the power-that-be because kids aren't workers.
I think the confusion around vaccines is a result of terrible communication decisions. Vaccines got sold as a ticket out of the pandemic, which is a lie because we cannot exit the pandemic individually. Don't get me wrong, vaccines are an excellent and critical tool in our public health strategy, but they should not be our only tool.
1000% agree that we need to amplify attention on the issue of Long-COVID. I have also seen that 30% rate, though the 70% is something I haven't seen yet. I think that Long-COVID doesn't get attention for a variety of reasons; a lot of attention is focused on surging hospitalizations, our culture always sweeps disability/chronic illness under a rug, leadership/management wants to keep people working so its advantageous (for them, in a shortsighted way) to not talk about Long-COVID. I am grateful that there are Long-COVID advocacy groups out there (like Body Politic, which testified to members of Congress about Long-COVID), some publications are starting to pay attention, and that HHS/DOJ issued guidance that Long-COVID "an be a disability under the ADA, Section 504, and Section 1557 if it substantially limits one or more major life activities." But so much more needs to happen to keep people safe!
I have an 11 year old that just got her second dose and a 14 year old and 15 year olds that got theirs in June. No boosters available obviously. Are they just sitting ducks again?
I have the exact same situation with my three kids of the same age. My two teens are boys (2nd doses in June). I’m wondering about them now being sitting ducks in terms of COVID but also about the very rare risk of myocarditis with a booster since they’re the exact group most likely to be affected by that. The decision fatigue of conscious, intentional parenting in a pandemic has finally worn me down to a nub of a human, it feels.
I hear you. Especially about decision fatigue. I’m so near tears all the time.
Is Omicron more contagious even when outdoors? I.e. Should fully vaxxed individuals wear masks outside and social distance?
Does the immunity boost from the third shot wane? Are these studies showing the effectiveness of the booster take into account how recently the shot was given? I'm 60 and my husband is 63, and we have an immuno-comprised 32 yo daughter with other disabilities. We got our booster shots in late August. Are we as protected as if we had gotten the booster more recently?
There's a lot of questions for YLE to respond to here, so in case it's useful - if you are worried about whether you're still immune, you can get a serology test (antibody test) to check at any time. Your GP should also have an informed opinion because they know your medical history and this can come into play too. For some people, the third shot is what's required to have a basic vaccination as their immune system is slower to respond. For most people, two shots are full vaccination and the third shot some months later is a booster. Everyone's immune system is different so there's no exact period for all, but the serology test will give you a straight answer on your current immunity status pretty quickly.
We keep hearing that vaxxed and boosted provides the best protection. I am curious if the 5-11 age group are considered as protected as the boosted adults once they have both doses and the two-week wait?
Thank you for the updates. Does any of this change your own holiday travel plans, or your own sense of what’s reasonable? (Weren’t you planning a (cautious) cross-country trip that included airports?) Holiday travel is seeming less and less reasonable to me with each passing day.
I can imagine enormous numbers of people getting sick away from their usual health care system and doctors, and being “stuck” at their destinations, navigating the unfamiliar, until they’re well again. Seems like a recipe for disaster. Or at least making a very bad situation worse.
Yeah, agreed. Travel does not seem wise right now. I'm personally not sure about even local gatherings. A vaccinated, local friend group invited me to a holiday party on Friday and I declined in the invite in the interest of being cautious. Turns out a toddler (too young to be vaccinated) was present at the party and the parents learned shortly afterwards about an outbreak at their daycare. Testing revealed that the toddler is COVID positive. All the party-goers got tests done and are isolating until they learn the results. I am worried about them all, though also feeling relieved that I chose not to go to that party.
Yes. We are invited to a smallish gathering tonight, about six families and we’ve met with these folks a few times in the past couple years, post vaccine, but outdoors. I wasn’t fully onboard with an indoor event but with omicron I’m thinking we’ll stay home.
It’s a tough balance. I’m really sad not to see these people.
I have the same quandry and have made up my mind to cancel. We don't even know at this point whether moving events outside makes much of a difference with Omicron. Laurie Garrett was pretty grim on TV yesterday too.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#inbox/FMfcgzGllVmMxtfNxLqSVQBFqqSkrQjx. Seems like the people I most admire are not taking risks, either for personal or ethical reasons.
Thank you Hinda, I'll try to look that up. My husband hasn't seen any of his family in two years and I so much don't want to disappoint him, but it's looking worse and worse.