Well, Omicron cases are growing really fast. Like explosive, skyrocketing, vertical growth fast. If we continue this rate of spread, I would venture to say that there is no modern day virus that has spread this fast and this far ever before. We continue to see case growth in South Africa, although I’m convinced they’ll hit their peak soon due to several indicators (like test positivity rate and acceleration slowing). While previous waves have averaged 2 months, Omicron will hopefully result in a shorter wave due to high transmissibility and change of behavior.
Thank you for your work Katelyn, the clearest and most “justs the facts” analysis I can find anywhere. Even though you put all this work out for free, I subscribed just to thank you for your work.
So some of us, my wife and I🙋♀️🙋♂️, got boosted super early, Aug 1, based on Israeli boosting data. We are not worried about severe disease for us but we have a 9 month old that we dont want to take any risks transmitting to. I would love to see more of a lens on Israeli booster effectiveness/waning against Omicron since it presents a good use case on booster durability due to early adoption. Thank you
One of the most alarming statements today was the acknowledgement that we do not have the testing capacity to record the projected number of new cases. "We will run out of tests, reagents, and plastic. . . " While we continue to shift scientific and healthcare resources towards the pandemic, I am concerned about losing ground on advances we've made in other areas, such as Parkinson's research and cancer.
Just subscribed to support your work and ask this question — do you know if there are updated versions of Dr. Bedford's graphs? Looks like the ones you're using are ~10days old. Thanks!
I keep wonder about my newly fully vaccinated 11-year-old. They have a strong immune system to begin with, and the high levels of antibodies that initial immunization brings--but not that third shot, which apparently operates differently in the body. What will their immunity be compared with someone who has received the booster?
I am so angry to learn that vaccination for 6 months-under 5 years is being delayed (they had been predicting shots would be going into arms for 2-4s in "early" 2022). I hope you'll write something about it. My questions are, first, why didn't they test different dosing levels like they did with the 5-11 year olds? That just seems like it would have been prudent! Second, why aren't they seeking authorization for the 6mo-under 2 year olds if those shots appear to be effective?
1) What does the data look like for Moderna vaccines? I haven’t found much at all that assesses Moderna’s effectiveness against Omicron.
2) Since we have seen that 2-dose Pfizer takes a huge hit against Omicron, why is there no rush to get the 5-16 age group boosted/3rd dosed?
3) I am confused by the messaging around our current vaccines. We hear that they are MUCH less protective against Omicron, but then Fauci said our current vaccines are fine. Which is it? And are companies pursuing an Omicron-specific booster, or not?
4) I am increasingly concerned that people with large platforms are NOT amplifying the fact that something like 30-70% (depending on the source) of people who get COVID end up with Long Covid, to include long-term dementia-like/MS-like symptoms. And that appears to be the case irrespective of vaccination status. The acute phase of COVID is scary, but there needs to be much better messaging about the fact that “not dying” doesn’t mean we come out of COVID just fine. If we don’t try fight COVID with everything we have (masks, ventilation, vaccination, antivirals), we will be caught in this loop for years and masses of people will be disabled. We should be putting far more emphasis on this!!
I have an 11 year old that just got her second dose and a 14 year old and 15 year olds that got theirs in June. No boosters available obviously. Are they just sitting ducks again?
Does the immunity boost from the third shot wane? Are these studies showing the effectiveness of the booster take into account how recently the shot was given? I'm 60 and my husband is 63, and we have an immuno-comprised 32 yo daughter with other disabilities. We got our booster shots in late August. Are we as protected as if we had gotten the booster more recently?
We keep hearing that vaxxed and boosted provides the best protection. I am curious if the 5-11 age group are considered as protected as the boosted adults once they have both doses and the two-week wait?
Thank you for the updates. Does any of this change your own holiday travel plans, or your own sense of what’s reasonable? (Weren’t you planning a (cautious) cross-country trip that included airports?) Holiday travel is seeming less and less reasonable to me with each passing day.
I can imagine enormous numbers of people getting sick away from their usual health care system and doctors, and being “stuck” at their destinations, navigating the unfamiliar, until they’re well again. Seems like a recipe for disaster. Or at least making a very bad situation worse.
Omicron Update: Dec 17
I just wanted to say thank you. This is an amazing summary.
Thank you for your work Katelyn, the clearest and most “justs the facts” analysis I can find anywhere. Even though you put all this work out for free, I subscribed just to thank you for your work.
Any news on the vax for kids under 5? It feels like Pfizer forgot them. 😩
So some of us, my wife and I🙋♀️🙋♂️, got boosted super early, Aug 1, based on Israeli boosting data. We are not worried about severe disease for us but we have a 9 month old that we dont want to take any risks transmitting to. I would love to see more of a lens on Israeli booster effectiveness/waning against Omicron since it presents a good use case on booster durability due to early adoption. Thank you
Thanks for another great article, Dr. Jetelina!
Question, do you know if there are any studies investigating/comparing the relationships between the variants and Long-COVID?
One of the most alarming statements today was the acknowledgement that we do not have the testing capacity to record the projected number of new cases. "We will run out of tests, reagents, and plastic. . . " While we continue to shift scientific and healthcare resources towards the pandemic, I am concerned about losing ground on advances we've made in other areas, such as Parkinson's research and cancer.
Just subscribed to support your work and ask this question — do you know if there are updated versions of Dr. Bedford's graphs? Looks like the ones you're using are ~10days old. Thanks!
I keep wonder about my newly fully vaccinated 11-year-old. They have a strong immune system to begin with, and the high levels of antibodies that initial immunization brings--but not that third shot, which apparently operates differently in the body. What will their immunity be compared with someone who has received the booster?
I am so angry to learn that vaccination for 6 months-under 5 years is being delayed (they had been predicting shots would be going into arms for 2-4s in "early" 2022). I hope you'll write something about it. My questions are, first, why didn't they test different dosing levels like they did with the 5-11 year olds? That just seems like it would have been prudent! Second, why aren't they seeking authorization for the 6mo-under 2 year olds if those shots appear to be effective?
Is there any change in guidance about the low likelihood of surface contamination transmission vs airborne? Thanks.
1) What does the data look like for Moderna vaccines? I haven’t found much at all that assesses Moderna’s effectiveness against Omicron.
2) Since we have seen that 2-dose Pfizer takes a huge hit against Omicron, why is there no rush to get the 5-16 age group boosted/3rd dosed?
3) I am confused by the messaging around our current vaccines. We hear that they are MUCH less protective against Omicron, but then Fauci said our current vaccines are fine. Which is it? And are companies pursuing an Omicron-specific booster, or not?
4) I am increasingly concerned that people with large platforms are NOT amplifying the fact that something like 30-70% (depending on the source) of people who get COVID end up with Long Covid, to include long-term dementia-like/MS-like symptoms. And that appears to be the case irrespective of vaccination status. The acute phase of COVID is scary, but there needs to be much better messaging about the fact that “not dying” doesn’t mean we come out of COVID just fine. If we don’t try fight COVID with everything we have (masks, ventilation, vaccination, antivirals), we will be caught in this loop for years and masses of people will be disabled. We should be putting far more emphasis on this!!
I have an 11 year old that just got her second dose and a 14 year old and 15 year olds that got theirs in June. No boosters available obviously. Are they just sitting ducks again?
Is Omicron more contagious even when outdoors? I.e. Should fully vaxxed individuals wear masks outside and social distance?
Does the immunity boost from the third shot wane? Are these studies showing the effectiveness of the booster take into account how recently the shot was given? I'm 60 and my husband is 63, and we have an immuno-comprised 32 yo daughter with other disabilities. We got our booster shots in late August. Are we as protected as if we had gotten the booster more recently?
We keep hearing that vaxxed and boosted provides the best protection. I am curious if the 5-11 age group are considered as protected as the boosted adults once they have both doses and the two-week wait?
Thank you for the updates. Does any of this change your own holiday travel plans, or your own sense of what’s reasonable? (Weren’t you planning a (cautious) cross-country trip that included airports?) Holiday travel is seeming less and less reasonable to me with each passing day.
I can imagine enormous numbers of people getting sick away from their usual health care system and doctors, and being “stuck” at their destinations, navigating the unfamiliar, until they’re well again. Seems like a recipe for disaster. Or at least making a very bad situation worse.