To anyone also thrown for a second by seeing Summer surge 2021 just starting on the graph for Guateng-it's the beginning of summer now in the Southern Hemisphere.
You do realize it's unfair that I have to read your citations before adequate coffee? Thank you for another informative post. I've reached the same conclusions. I'm concerned for R(t) but I'm still waiting for both my network of clinicians (rather ad hoc) and published info from case studies on the severity and mortality. I'd already started the morning with the Twitter epidemiology updates (and filtering the cruft) and your piece here added significant content making my life easier.
The down side of Twitter is, while there's good virology and epidemiology info out there, there are a bunch of skeptics, and misinformation drones, too.
Thank you for this post. Given your reach, it might be helpful to post whatever you think is the best data on mask efficacy. The article from the Times below led me to find a spreadsheet created by Aaron Collins featured in this article as a dedicated mask tester. Now I cannot find the link to the spreadsheet, but here is the link to the article.
FWIW, the mask we use is a KF94 made by MHCARE. The Collins spreadsheet gave it 99% efficacy.
thanks for resurfacing this! i couldn’t find the excel link either, but tried to include it. it was a great resource for legitimate masks that i posted earlier in the pandemic
First of all, thank you SO MUCH for your always insightful, thorough, evidence-based posts. I am curious as to your thoughts on why the US has not mandated COVID testing prior to domestic flights. Given that we know that Omicron is here and that new variants are likely to be circulating prior to detection, not to mention the unfortunately high case rates and percentages of unvaccinated Americans in certain parts of the country, it is confusing to me why we are not doing everything we can to limit domestic spread from regions that are more heavily affected into regions that are doing better (like the Bay Area, where I live). I understand the political nightmare of mandating vaccines prior to domestic air travel, but I can't wrap my head around why we are not requiring testing, especially since PCR testing is free and given Biden's push to make rapid testing covered by insurance.
I see little Iceland has 3 cases identified so far. 2 stemmed from one man, but where he got it no one knows. He had not traveled. That’s out of 300 new cases in the last two days in the whole country.
Considering the graphic below "I’m a little less confident in this data because...": I'm concerned about readers' possible mis-interpretation of those data. Perhaps I'm misreading the data, but the graph appears to show percentages of types of infection. In such measures, it seems to me that there is bound to be co-variance among the "types." In a percentage, isn't it the case that an increase of, say, 10% in one type will automatically result in 10% in all the other types? Doesn't the total always have to sum to 100% (even including error)?
Anyway, thanks for yet another helpful "letter." I feel much more well-informed after reading MyLE (even if you lives far from my local neighborhood!).
This is so trivial a typo, and so understandable: we got a "peek" at South Africa's hospitalization data, not a peak. I apologize-my mum was an English teacher and I get my correcting habit from her. I so appreciate all the info. I had hoped there was a possibility that Omicron would would be very mild while very contagious and crowd out variants that caused more serious illness but I'm less optimistic now.
So thankful for you and all you do and sacrifice!!! I'm a paid subscriber but would also pay to talk to you daily! Each hour w/o info feels like days. Any word/insight on the FDA and approving boosters for 16-17 year olds? They are radio silent! I'm so worried that my almost 17yr old is at 8.5 months post V2. Any possibility it'll be approved (and pharms give) before the 13th? If so, how likely? Omicron info seems like it's changing hourly...delta just drives me nuts...school is crazymaking. Thank you!
Thank you for explaining this so well, especially the part about why results in South Africa may or may not be different from those Omicron will get elsewhere.
This week I was in Manhattan for the first time since May. The difference was amazing. This time it took me twice as long to walk to the train station (getting me there just in time!) due to both pedestrian and vehicular traffic. The police directing traffic at busy intersections are back. There were lots of families speaking other languages in places like the Ellis Island terminal, the Theater District and Times Square. Most appeared to be tourists and not families who live in NY. So no huge surprise that cases are in NY now.
On the plus side, I did appreciate having to show my proof of vaccination and ID to enter many places.
Thanks for explaining the difference between Rt and R0. So, if Rt for Omicron is 2.3 and prior infection and/or vaccines are, let's say, 50% "in the way", might R0 be roughly 5? A bit below Delta's 6+, but there's a lot "in the way" of Delta these days....
Does the information gathered from Delta make it “easier” to correlate the in-vitro data for antibody levels and antigen binding with how Covid disease plays out in the population? In other words, based on data from Delta do we now have models that will predict the seriousness of disease we can expect from Omicron once the analogous lab testing is completed?
To anyone also thrown for a second by seeing Summer surge 2021 just starting on the graph for Guateng-it's the beginning of summer now in the Southern Hemisphere.
You do realize it's unfair that I have to read your citations before adequate coffee? Thank you for another informative post. I've reached the same conclusions. I'm concerned for R(t) but I'm still waiting for both my network of clinicians (rather ad hoc) and published info from case studies on the severity and mortality. I'd already started the morning with the Twitter epidemiology updates (and filtering the cruft) and your piece here added significant content making my life easier.
glad to hear you’re back on twitter :)
The down side of Twitter is, while there's good virology and epidemiology info out there, there are a bunch of skeptics, and misinformation drones, too.
Thank you for this post. Given your reach, it might be helpful to post whatever you think is the best data on mask efficacy. The article from the Times below led me to find a spreadsheet created by Aaron Collins featured in this article as a dedicated mask tester. Now I cannot find the link to the spreadsheet, but here is the link to the article.
FWIW, the mask we use is a KF94 made by MHCARE. The Collins spreadsheet gave it 99% efficacy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/30/health/covid-masks-counterfeit-fake.html?searchResultPosition=1
thanks for resurfacing this! i couldn’t find the excel link either, but tried to include it. it was a great resource for legitimate masks that i posted earlier in the pandemic
Found it.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M0mdNLpTWEGcluK6hh5LjjcFixwmOG853Ff45d3O-L0/edit#gid=1976839763
Thank you.
excellent article. thank you
Great update...
First of all, thank you SO MUCH for your always insightful, thorough, evidence-based posts. I am curious as to your thoughts on why the US has not mandated COVID testing prior to domestic flights. Given that we know that Omicron is here and that new variants are likely to be circulating prior to detection, not to mention the unfortunately high case rates and percentages of unvaccinated Americans in certain parts of the country, it is confusing to me why we are not doing everything we can to limit domestic spread from regions that are more heavily affected into regions that are doing better (like the Bay Area, where I live). I understand the political nightmare of mandating vaccines prior to domestic air travel, but I can't wrap my head around why we are not requiring testing, especially since PCR testing is free and given Biden's push to make rapid testing covered by insurance.
I see little Iceland has 3 cases identified so far. 2 stemmed from one man, but where he got it no one knows. He had not traveled. That’s out of 300 new cases in the last two days in the whole country.
https://www.ruv.is/frett/2021/12/02/two-more-omicron-cases-confirmed
Considering the graphic below "I’m a little less confident in this data because...": I'm concerned about readers' possible mis-interpretation of those data. Perhaps I'm misreading the data, but the graph appears to show percentages of types of infection. In such measures, it seems to me that there is bound to be co-variance among the "types." In a percentage, isn't it the case that an increase of, say, 10% in one type will automatically result in 10% in all the other types? Doesn't the total always have to sum to 100% (even including error)?
Anyway, thanks for yet another helpful "letter." I feel much more well-informed after reading MyLE (even if you lives far from my local neighborhood!).
Which graphic are you referring to? I'll try to answer your question.
Tnx! I was referring to "the graphic below 'I’m a little less confident in this data because...':"
I’m out this morning helping our Afghan family but I’ll get on this shortly.
Katelyn, assuming you've seen this:
https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/95948?xid=nl_medpageexclusive_2021-12-02&eun=g1227798d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MPTExclusives_120221&utm_term=NL_Gen_Int_Medpage_Exclusives_Active
This is so trivial a typo, and so understandable: we got a "peek" at South Africa's hospitalization data, not a peak. I apologize-my mum was an English teacher and I get my correcting habit from her. I so appreciate all the info. I had hoped there was a possibility that Omicron would would be very mild while very contagious and crowd out variants that caused more serious illness but I'm less optimistic now.
So thankful for you and all you do and sacrifice!!! I'm a paid subscriber but would also pay to talk to you daily! Each hour w/o info feels like days. Any word/insight on the FDA and approving boosters for 16-17 year olds? They are radio silent! I'm so worried that my almost 17yr old is at 8.5 months post V2. Any possibility it'll be approved (and pharms give) before the 13th? If so, how likely? Omicron info seems like it's changing hourly...delta just drives me nuts...school is crazymaking. Thank you!
Thank you for explaining this so well, especially the part about why results in South Africa may or may not be different from those Omicron will get elsewhere.
This week I was in Manhattan for the first time since May. The difference was amazing. This time it took me twice as long to walk to the train station (getting me there just in time!) due to both pedestrian and vehicular traffic. The police directing traffic at busy intersections are back. There were lots of families speaking other languages in places like the Ellis Island terminal, the Theater District and Times Square. Most appeared to be tourists and not families who live in NY. So no huge surprise that cases are in NY now.
On the plus side, I did appreciate having to show my proof of vaccination and ID to enter many places.
Thanks for explaining the difference between Rt and R0. So, if Rt for Omicron is 2.3 and prior infection and/or vaccines are, let's say, 50% "in the way", might R0 be roughly 5? A bit below Delta's 6+, but there's a lot "in the way" of Delta these days....
First, thanks for all you do!
Does the information gathered from Delta make it “easier” to correlate the in-vitro data for antibody levels and antigen binding with how Covid disease plays out in the population? In other words, based on data from Delta do we now have models that will predict the seriousness of disease we can expect from Omicron once the analogous lab testing is completed?