There were models, that started in the George W. Bush era, looking at the next respiratory pandemic. Because coronavirus wasn't on their list, they were thinking in terms of pandemic influenza (H5N1) . One of the ways the model data suggested would markedly reduce transmission of a respiratory virus was to close schools. Closing schools …
There were models, that started in the George W. Bush era, looking at the next respiratory pandemic. Because coronavirus wasn't on their list, they were thinking in terms of pandemic influenza (H5N1) . One of the ways the model data suggested would markedly reduce transmission of a respiratory virus was to close schools. Closing schools wasn't due to mass hysteria but rather, by implementing a portion of the best prior planning we had at the time. I'll note that the incumbent administration had scattered the people responsible for pandemic planning to various departments and agencies, eliminating a cohesive working group, or had simply eliminated those positions.
And lest you attempt to cherry-pick the conclusion, as a long-time numerical modeler, I can tell you models are not real-world, but are often the best tool we have to determine what is likely to happen. Models are often incorrect but are also often very useful.
There were models, that started in the George W. Bush era, looking at the next respiratory pandemic. Because coronavirus wasn't on their list, they were thinking in terms of pandemic influenza (H5N1) . One of the ways the model data suggested would markedly reduce transmission of a respiratory virus was to close schools. Closing schools wasn't due to mass hysteria but rather, by implementing a portion of the best prior planning we had at the time. I'll note that the incumbent administration had scattered the people responsible for pandemic planning to various departments and agencies, eliminating a cohesive working group, or had simply eliminated those positions.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4022492/pdf/pone.0097297.pdf
This work was done in the White House, but was claimed en masse by HHS.
And lest you attempt to cherry-pick the conclusion, as a long-time numerical modeler, I can tell you models are not real-world, but are often the best tool we have to determine what is likely to happen. Models are often incorrect but are also often very useful.