The vaccine must not work for very long against active infection. My stepmother (age 65) got the most recent vaccine mid October and tested positive Friday. Despite having had six Covid vaccines and an infection in February 2022 (which left the lasting gift of COPD), she is very ill. She was able to get Paxlovid on Saturday, but this experience has been far worse for her than Covid 2022. I understand the vaccines were not meant to prevent active infection, but being this sick despite doing all the right things is so disappointing for my parents. And, of course, my 73 year-old father has been exposed.
The vaccines don't work against infection, despite what "experts" have been saying for 3 years. The idea that if you do the "right" things you will not catch an endemic respiratory virus that spreads like the common cold is absurd. I feel bad for your parents...they were lied to.
Moralizing the spread of respiratory viruses "good people don't get sick" is ridiculous and was never done pre-2020.
You know Paul, I used to disagree with pretty much everything you said. Now, I think a lot of what you are saying is correct. I wasn’t implying anything moralistic, moreso I was trying to convey that based on what the “experts have said,” they have followed the things to the letter. They even lectured me about not getting the latest shot. But, illness six weeks later, especially being quite ill, does not jive with the narrative.
They were not lied to, vaccines never were to prevent infection. Unfortunately, we were buoyed by the results and got a bit over hyped, especially MSM. For clarification purposes, vaccines did not prevent infection. If you are exposed to the virus, you are infected. Hopefully your mucosal kicked in to prevent upper respiratory replication. The boosters gives you higher titers of antibodies for a while. What happens after a few months, the abs contract (wane), a naturally occurrence after infection or vaccination. This is when your cellular/humoral system hopefully kicks in. The idea is to prevent hospitalization and death. It's different for everyone. Of course, nothing is 100% I hope for the best and glad she got paxlovid. By any chance they checked for co-infections?
I guess it is confusing to me because Dr. J says in this update they “work against infection.” We are a family who got vaccinated the second we were eligible. We masked any time we left the house until last fall. We still mask in medical establishments. I guess seeing her this sick (from afar) is just disappointing, especially six weeks later. Six months I could better understand. No co-infections. Just whatever strain this is. Getting Paxlovid was also difficult. Urgent care said she did not “qualify.” Her PCM was closed, and the on-call never called back. A friend from their church, who is a family medicine doc, sent a script in after my dad called her in a panic.
I understand because infection and disease seems to be used interchangeably, Guess I am a bit of a stickler for form. Example: SARS-CoV-2 (infection) can turn into COVID-19 (disease) like HIV turns into AIDS. PS, I am a little peeved that it is hard to get paxlovid despite all the clinical evidence. Yes, in some cases, it may not be suitable but I heard too many lame excuses.
I think everyone was hoping they would - and my impression is that it DID have better protection against the original and delta versions, but variants has just gotten smarter than us and found ways to evade. I think that this is where the first breakdown happened for trusting the vaccine. At the same time, scientists were learning along the way and this seems to be a tricky little bugger.
Yes, the initial results actually exceeded expectation but I would prefer the term evolved to develop evasive mechanisms. The anti-vaxx been around since Jenner and this is just a new target with political implications. Yes, we are still learning even about the 1918 Flu Pandemic. Viruses are really not simple. This is no exception to being a "tricky little bugger." :-)
Here’s a moral question for you, Paul: how many people has your endless propaganda killed in the past three years? Those foolish or ignorant enough to heed you?
I got Covid for the very first time AFAIK a little less than 3 weeks after my XBB shot. I had the bivalent shot a little over a year before that. Interestingly my antibodies never fell below 25,000 u/mL (they don't actually measure north of that). So I'm wondering if it has less to do with waning, so much as the newer variants just having crazy short incubation periods.
I am so so sorry for your parents. My mom had it recently and was really sick too and she just caught the flu a month ago and is still coughing. It is hard.
I hope you and your CDC Tiger Team are taking many, many victory laps for the work you did to upgrade the CDC site. Bravo and bravos to all involved!
A question if you know: it appears the NYC sites may still not be included for wastewater data, but I wasn’t able to find out whether this is because they use the commercial contractor, in which case data will begin to show in a few weeks. If that’s not the issue, do you know why and when/whether NYC data will be included?
Above all, thank you so much for this update and ALL your hard and smart work to keep us informed!
Thank you very much, again, for thorough information, clearly presented. I am one of the geezers waiting on the RSV vaccine. I think I have vaccine fatigue, in this new time when so many are available and recommended. I just mention this as part of the vaccine hesitancy problem--I really see the science and there's still a stubborn little person inside who says "I don't need that." Your writeup today is pushing me toward acceptance.
OK... I find it obsurd that due to the toxic polarizing politics of the last 8 years, everyone who never even majored in microbiology seems to be an "expert" in microbiology, virology, epidemiology & zoonotic diseases... Especially the politicians... (who, BTW, have the highest rate of pathological tendencies of all occupations... one step behind used car salesmen... as if we didn't already know this fact of psychiatry...) Suddenly, barrier protections like masks are reported to "not work" -- I guess then why bother washing your hands, using a condom, sneezing into a tissue instead of someone's face or wiping your behind? They don't work 100% of the time either... PS: Never follow anyone who is too afraid to wear a 1 ounce mask... that's not "leadership" -- that's a whiny, snot-nosed 4 year old who never graduated kindergarten...
As a fellow informaticist once said to me ‘yes, but compared to what?’ We have interesting retrospective data that can be projected, compared, against geographic locations, past years. What we really do not have is a good measure of ‘risk’ the public can understand. During COVID when we had relatively good ‘testing’ data, I tracked the probability of the number of ‘infectious’ persons out of 100 people. Not a perfect measure, but it would be something we all could understand and use to assess our daily ‘situational’ risk.
Yes! I wish more people realized this. Disease prevalence is important to know. I tracked cases in my state by county and made it available on the web but it hasn't been updated since the data stopped being available last May.
A clearly deliberate attempt to hide the disease impact and make it difficult to assess one's "personal risk". And I live in a very blue state. The desire to hide the impact of SARS-2 is the most bipartisan issue I can think of.
The CDC website can be difficult to navigate. I'd love it if you could provide a direct link to their site for each of the graphs/maps you pulled, if one is available.
Thank you for pointing to the new CDC wastewater page. I wonder if you can address what to do when data sources contradict. The CDC shows CA decreasing (with the caveat that the last two weeks may be inaccurate...), while data.wastewaterscan.org shows med/high and rising for the LA and SF Bay areas... thanks.
Readers might it helpful if some of the upcoming newsletters covered basics of the immune system and why different people respond differently. The material should capture the complexity of the immune system (IS) in terms of the active agents (some members of IS are general first line response, some call in other more specific agents, etc.) and the complex interaction. What makes a 30 year old more likely to shake off a virus quickly and a 70 year old less likely. Why are 70 year olds different. Additionally, much of the symptoms are from an immune system response not directly from the Virus. It is the diversity in immune systems as much or more than diversity in Viruses that generate questions and uncertainty in the population. Just a thought.
Once again you provide succinct, accurate, critical aggregate viral information which is very hard to find anywhere else. You have not forgotten those of us who still care about rational personal and community good health. Thanks, again.
Thanks for the wonderfully comprehensive info in this post! I appreciate knowing where we are in the RSV safety info, even if it’s “we don’t have the info yet”. Thanks again for all your hard work!
"Respiratory illnesses continue to increase due to colder temperatures, changes in human behavior (i.e., holidays), and viruses mutating, like Covid-19."
There's no evidence that human behavior impacts seasonal viral waves. Implying that if people didn't gather for holidays the viral waves would somehow look different is laughable.
"And yes, the fall 2023 vaccine works against JN.1. A pre-print showed that our first line of defense (i.e., neutralizing antibodies) increased when our cells saw the threat in a petri dish. This means the vaccine will still work against infection, but not as much as before. It is still a great tool against hospitalization and death."
No, that is not what this means. You have no evidence (double-blind randomized trial) to prove this statement. Antibodies increasing in a petri dish does not prove real-world effectiveness against anything.
Wow. I can't post graphics, but the CDC FluView site has a graph showing the last six years of influenza activity. On of the lines is not like the rest: the 2020-2021 season. The flu season was canceled, didn't happen. I don't advocate stay at home orders, they aren't necessary if other mitigations exist.
But clearly human behavior has a large impact on disease, seasonal or otherwise.
the flu disappeared globally, even in areas where no mitigations existed. The flu also started disappearing before any covid mitigations were implemented anywhere. The "lockdowns/covid mitigations eliminated the flu (but strangely not covid)" argument is easily falsified.
Okay - so there was as much covid in 2020 as later years? Certainly not in the US. That shows that SARS-2 is much more transmissible than flu, not that the reduction in interaction had no effect. Again, I don't believe mandating closures is the right policy decision, but but do believe working on reducing the burden of diseases on all the population (not just some) should be a goal of human society.
The explanation for 2018, 2021, 2022 US flu seasons being radically different than 2020 is... chance? Lower prevalence of disease in one part of the world has an effect on the rest of the world. Given that China, the EU, and the US as well as other countries had some level of reduced human interactions, much of the world population had less flu activity and that certainly had an impact on global disease.
We actually are all in this together when it comes to public health, for good or ill.
If what you are saying is true, then countries (and states) that had fewer restrictions should have seen more flu cases (and more of every other respiratory virus). But they didn't. You are assuming correlation = causation.
Viral interference is a likely explanation for the disappearance of certain viruses. It has been seen many times throughout history.
No, I'm not saying that, nor assuming that. What I am saying is: lower prevalence of disease in one part of the world has an effect on the rest of the world, including states.
If viral interference were the reason for a reduced flu season one would expect the effect to be much more pronounced in subsequent flu seasons because many, many more people were infected with SARS-2 than in 2020 but influenza came back strong.
Is Bio.bot going to be phased out or is it what CDC is using? It was either you or Caitlyn Rivers who mentioned that a few months ago.
Starting to feel like these variants are going to be as contagious as measles before too long. :( I got the latest vaccine but starting to feel like it's getting less and less worthwhile. Is there any hope for a vaccine that actually DOES protect against getting infected? What's the update on pan-vaccines that are variant proof?
The vaccine must not work for very long against active infection. My stepmother (age 65) got the most recent vaccine mid October and tested positive Friday. Despite having had six Covid vaccines and an infection in February 2022 (which left the lasting gift of COPD), she is very ill. She was able to get Paxlovid on Saturday, but this experience has been far worse for her than Covid 2022. I understand the vaccines were not meant to prevent active infection, but being this sick despite doing all the right things is so disappointing for my parents. And, of course, my 73 year-old father has been exposed.
I'm sorry your stepmother is so sick.
Thank you for your kindness, Ann.
The vaccines don't work against infection, despite what "experts" have been saying for 3 years. The idea that if you do the "right" things you will not catch an endemic respiratory virus that spreads like the common cold is absurd. I feel bad for your parents...they were lied to.
Moralizing the spread of respiratory viruses "good people don't get sick" is ridiculous and was never done pre-2020.
You know Paul, I used to disagree with pretty much everything you said. Now, I think a lot of what you are saying is correct. I wasn’t implying anything moralistic, moreso I was trying to convey that based on what the “experts have said,” they have followed the things to the letter. They even lectured me about not getting the latest shot. But, illness six weeks later, especially being quite ill, does not jive with the narrative.
They were not lied to, vaccines never were to prevent infection. Unfortunately, we were buoyed by the results and got a bit over hyped, especially MSM. For clarification purposes, vaccines did not prevent infection. If you are exposed to the virus, you are infected. Hopefully your mucosal kicked in to prevent upper respiratory replication. The boosters gives you higher titers of antibodies for a while. What happens after a few months, the abs contract (wane), a naturally occurrence after infection or vaccination. This is when your cellular/humoral system hopefully kicks in. The idea is to prevent hospitalization and death. It's different for everyone. Of course, nothing is 100% I hope for the best and glad she got paxlovid. By any chance they checked for co-infections?
Paxlovid worked for me in August and my wife in July. Also helped several friends. I'll trust the experts, not some rank politician.
I guess it is confusing to me because Dr. J says in this update they “work against infection.” We are a family who got vaccinated the second we were eligible. We masked any time we left the house until last fall. We still mask in medical establishments. I guess seeing her this sick (from afar) is just disappointing, especially six weeks later. Six months I could better understand. No co-infections. Just whatever strain this is. Getting Paxlovid was also difficult. Urgent care said she did not “qualify.” Her PCM was closed, and the on-call never called back. A friend from their church, who is a family medicine doc, sent a script in after my dad called her in a panic.
I understand because infection and disease seems to be used interchangeably, Guess I am a bit of a stickler for form. Example: SARS-CoV-2 (infection) can turn into COVID-19 (disease) like HIV turns into AIDS. PS, I am a little peeved that it is hard to get paxlovid despite all the clinical evidence. Yes, in some cases, it may not be suitable but I heard too many lame excuses.
how terrible!
I think everyone was hoping they would - and my impression is that it DID have better protection against the original and delta versions, but variants has just gotten smarter than us and found ways to evade. I think that this is where the first breakdown happened for trusting the vaccine. At the same time, scientists were learning along the way and this seems to be a tricky little bugger.
Yes, the initial results actually exceeded expectation but I would prefer the term evolved to develop evasive mechanisms. The anti-vaxx been around since Jenner and this is just a new target with political implications. Yes, we are still learning even about the 1918 Flu Pandemic. Viruses are really not simple. This is no exception to being a "tricky little bugger." :-)
I wasn't saying you were implying anything moralistic, just that many experts have been.
Here’s a moral question for you, Paul: how many people has your endless propaganda killed in the past three years? Those foolish or ignorant enough to heed you?
I got Covid for the very first time AFAIK a little less than 3 weeks after my XBB shot. I had the bivalent shot a little over a year before that. Interestingly my antibodies never fell below 25,000 u/mL (they don't actually measure north of that). So I'm wondering if it has less to do with waning, so much as the newer variants just having crazy short incubation periods.
Sorry she’s not feeling well. Which booster did she get?
Moderna. She has had mostly Moderna, I think. Or maybe all Moderna.
Sending good thoughts and prayers (if welcomed) to your stepmom and dad.
I am so so sorry for your parents. My mom had it recently and was really sick too and she just caught the flu a month ago and is still coughing. It is hard.
I hope you and your CDC Tiger Team are taking many, many victory laps for the work you did to upgrade the CDC site. Bravo and bravos to all involved!
A question if you know: it appears the NYC sites may still not be included for wastewater data, but I wasn’t able to find out whether this is because they use the commercial contractor, in which case data will begin to show in a few weeks. If that’s not the issue, do you know why and when/whether NYC data will be included?
Above all, thank you so much for this update and ALL your hard and smart work to keep us informed!
Thank you for the overhauled wastewater website!
UGH Noro, didn't we ban that guy?!
Thank you very much, again, for thorough information, clearly presented. I am one of the geezers waiting on the RSV vaccine. I think I have vaccine fatigue, in this new time when so many are available and recommended. I just mention this as part of the vaccine hesitancy problem--I really see the science and there's still a stubborn little person inside who says "I don't need that." Your writeup today is pushing me toward acceptance.
Ugh, the pharmacy should have told you about the Bridge program. There was no need to pay. https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/programs/bridge/index.html
Thank you! I follow JWeiland for modeling and there is a wave that most people don't realize. I "see" it from my perspective in healthcare.
OK... I find it obsurd that due to the toxic polarizing politics of the last 8 years, everyone who never even majored in microbiology seems to be an "expert" in microbiology, virology, epidemiology & zoonotic diseases... Especially the politicians... (who, BTW, have the highest rate of pathological tendencies of all occupations... one step behind used car salesmen... as if we didn't already know this fact of psychiatry...) Suddenly, barrier protections like masks are reported to "not work" -- I guess then why bother washing your hands, using a condom, sneezing into a tissue instead of someone's face or wiping your behind? They don't work 100% of the time either... PS: Never follow anyone who is too afraid to wear a 1 ounce mask... that's not "leadership" -- that's a whiny, snot-nosed 4 year old who never graduated kindergarten...
As a fellow informaticist once said to me ‘yes, but compared to what?’ We have interesting retrospective data that can be projected, compared, against geographic locations, past years. What we really do not have is a good measure of ‘risk’ the public can understand. During COVID when we had relatively good ‘testing’ data, I tracked the probability of the number of ‘infectious’ persons out of 100 people. Not a perfect measure, but it would be something we all could understand and use to assess our daily ‘situational’ risk.
Yes! I wish more people realized this. Disease prevalence is important to know. I tracked cases in my state by county and made it available on the web but it hasn't been updated since the data stopped being available last May.
A clearly deliberate attempt to hide the disease impact and make it difficult to assess one's "personal risk". And I live in a very blue state. The desire to hide the impact of SARS-2 is the most bipartisan issue I can think of.
The CDC website can be difficult to navigate. I'd love it if you could provide a direct link to their site for each of the graphs/maps you pulled, if one is available.
Thank you for pointing to the new CDC wastewater page. I wonder if you can address what to do when data sources contradict. The CDC shows CA decreasing (with the caveat that the last two weeks may be inaccurate...), while data.wastewaterscan.org shows med/high and rising for the LA and SF Bay areas... thanks.
Readers might it helpful if some of the upcoming newsletters covered basics of the immune system and why different people respond differently. The material should capture the complexity of the immune system (IS) in terms of the active agents (some members of IS are general first line response, some call in other more specific agents, etc.) and the complex interaction. What makes a 30 year old more likely to shake off a virus quickly and a 70 year old less likely. Why are 70 year olds different. Additionally, much of the symptoms are from an immune system response not directly from the Virus. It is the diversity in immune systems as much or more than diversity in Viruses that generate questions and uncertainty in the population. Just a thought.
Once again you provide succinct, accurate, critical aggregate viral information which is very hard to find anywhere else. You have not forgotten those of us who still care about rational personal and community good health. Thanks, again.
Why is the US weeks behind Europe regarding Covid?
Probably because they tend to rely more on public transportation, so our “curve” is usually a few weeks behind their’s.
Thanks for the wonderfully comprehensive info in this post! I appreciate knowing where we are in the RSV safety info, even if it’s “we don’t have the info yet”. Thanks again for all your hard work!
"Respiratory illnesses continue to increase due to colder temperatures, changes in human behavior (i.e., holidays), and viruses mutating, like Covid-19."
There's no evidence that human behavior impacts seasonal viral waves. Implying that if people didn't gather for holidays the viral waves would somehow look different is laughable.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/7462597/
"And yes, the fall 2023 vaccine works against JN.1. A pre-print showed that our first line of defense (i.e., neutralizing antibodies) increased when our cells saw the threat in a petri dish. This means the vaccine will still work against infection, but not as much as before. It is still a great tool against hospitalization and death."
No, that is not what this means. You have no evidence (double-blind randomized trial) to prove this statement. Antibodies increasing in a petri dish does not prove real-world effectiveness against anything.
Wow. I can't post graphics, but the CDC FluView site has a graph showing the last six years of influenza activity. On of the lines is not like the rest: the 2020-2021 season. The flu season was canceled, didn't happen. I don't advocate stay at home orders, they aren't necessary if other mitigations exist.
But clearly human behavior has a large impact on disease, seasonal or otherwise.
the flu disappeared globally, even in areas where no mitigations existed. The flu also started disappearing before any covid mitigations were implemented anywhere. The "lockdowns/covid mitigations eliminated the flu (but strangely not covid)" argument is easily falsified.
Okay - so there was as much covid in 2020 as later years? Certainly not in the US. That shows that SARS-2 is much more transmissible than flu, not that the reduction in interaction had no effect. Again, I don't believe mandating closures is the right policy decision, but but do believe working on reducing the burden of diseases on all the population (not just some) should be a goal of human society.
The explanation for 2018, 2021, 2022 US flu seasons being radically different than 2020 is... chance? Lower prevalence of disease in one part of the world has an effect on the rest of the world. Given that China, the EU, and the US as well as other countries had some level of reduced human interactions, much of the world population had less flu activity and that certainly had an impact on global disease.
We actually are all in this together when it comes to public health, for good or ill.
"We actually are all in this together when it comes to public health, for good or ill." True, but some people simply don't want to admit it.
Sadly, yes.
If what you are saying is true, then countries (and states) that had fewer restrictions should have seen more flu cases (and more of every other respiratory virus). But they didn't. You are assuming correlation = causation.
Viral interference is a likely explanation for the disappearance of certain viruses. It has been seen many times throughout history.
No, I'm not saying that, nor assuming that. What I am saying is: lower prevalence of disease in one part of the world has an effect on the rest of the world, including states.
If viral interference were the reason for a reduced flu season one would expect the effect to be much more pronounced in subsequent flu seasons because many, many more people were infected with SARS-2 than in 2020 but influenza came back strong.
Is Bio.bot going to be phased out or is it what CDC is using? It was either you or Caitlyn Rivers who mentioned that a few months ago.
Starting to feel like these variants are going to be as contagious as measles before too long. :( I got the latest vaccine but starting to feel like it's getting less and less worthwhile. Is there any hope for a vaccine that actually DOES protect against getting infected? What's the update on pan-vaccines that are variant proof?