Anddddd respiratory illnesses have peaked. This means we are in the smack middle of the season, as we still need to go down the wave. Here is your state of affairs. Influenza-like illnesses: High but declining The number of people seeking healthcare for respiratory illnesses—fever, cough, or sore throat symptoms—is still high but declining rapidly. In previous years, we’ve seen multiple humps, so don’t be surprised if this starts increasing again.
I’ll add to the anecdotal hospitalization reports after calling the ER on my way into work listening to this post! Here in South Jersey my health system reports ER and inpatient beds are “tight” but not critical. Improved from the last couple weeks but still “tight.”
Despite “abysmal” vaccination rates, and the missed opportunities for many people to be less sick, a spring booster seems like a good idea for those still playing the game. Dr. Daniel Griffin from TWiV unofficially endorsed as much during his weekly clinical update this week for >65yo and high risk.
I’ll take any opportunity to keep priming the well, as antigenic imprinting and other fears have not significantly materialized when compared to benefits most evident in higher risk individuals.
And if most of the additional benefit (in terms of long Covid prevention) with vaccines/boosts comes from that short lived but real 50->40->30% reduction in transmission for 3-4 months, sign me up. Each pair of dice left unrolled with Covid is good. Good for less severe disease, long Covid, and community transmission.
One can’t help but wonder how this season, particularly the strain on hospitals today, would be different if more businesses/schools/governments cleaned indoor air. 😤
Thanks to both of you for this report. Vaccines at the beginning of the block of Swiss cheese, YES. There are many of us still adding the extra slices of indoor masking, avoiding large crowds, and bringing in fresh air as best we can. Your reports very much matter to me. We’re tired, but the extra slices still matter for all of us. Onward.
You'd mentioned that you expect the CDC to possibly change isolation guidelines for Covid: well California just relaxed covid isolation to leave as soon as you have no fever, just mask and avoid people at high risk. I realize that isolating for too long is a social burden, but letting it rip is also a social burden. Those of us at higher risk don't wear a sign or can avoid easily without undue isolation--also a social burden. Can you address this in a future post?
I can corroborate the packed hospital information. My hospital is full every day with overflow patients holding in the ED for beds we don’t have. It’s insanity. And it repeats every single day.
Is there any data about whether these 47 pediatric deaths were in unvaccinated children? I think that information would be powerful to help persuade some parents to vaccinate!
There seems to be a paradox right now: covid in wastewater is at an all-time high yet most of the sick people I know right now swear they have a cold or the flu - and are right out there on airplanes and in movie theaters - unmasked - despite being sick. Because they “don’t have covid!”
And hospitals wouldn’t be so full if we had better therapeutics and access to them. This is the problem with our “vaccine, vaccine, vaccine” strategy. We’ve under-invested in life saving treatments.
Thanks for the interesting stat on the UK and how flu, not covid, is the primary reason for hospitalization. I’d be curious which covid vaccine NHS is giving to the 65+ crowd, as it’s my understanding there’s not much choice when it comes to manufacturer.
Regarding the question of spring covid 19 vaccinations for those over 65, what about those who are immune compromised? I am under 65 and immune compromised and would like the spring shot as well, will I be able to get it??
I am a gerontological NP and just left primary care at a large hospital system. I can corroborate the busy ERs as I heard stories of long waits from my patients. The burnout and low staffing continues all over the system. Cannot get scans and non-surgical procedures scheduled in a timely manner—meaning not without a 3-month or longer wait. Nurses have been in short supply since I started 40 years ago; the shortage was never a priority and never addressed. Then came the pandemic and Boom! I do not see a recovety from low nurse staffing any time soon. Our system’s priority is cutting back on employee programs to recoup the ginormous amount of $$ lost paying for traveling nurses.
We also had a large number of Covid infections among our population; some combined with RSV as well. Most folks had already received vaccination #6.
There aren't any Randomized Controlled Trials that show a mortality or hospitalization benefit for any of the Covid shots. So, claims that if only more people got vaccinated we'd see less death and fewer people in the hospital aren't based on any evidence. In fact, excess mortality rose globally after mass vaccination started in winter/spring 2021. That isn't conclusive proof of anything, but it should definitely give you pause regarding the efficacy of these shots.
Thank you for this clear, timely information, as always! I was interested in the statement: “There is still a lot of variability on the local level. For example, many cities—like San Jose, Chicago, and Miami—have yet to peak.” I am concerned, and have just written to my councilman once again about this, that New York City has no data included in the CDC trend line. It appears to be continually too late in reporting out these data to be included. (As of yesterday, the latest reported information from NYC to New York State was from 1/2/24, for example.) Given this, can those of us who are in NYC even use the known trend levels to assess risk and adjust our behavior as needed? And, if not, what can we do to best assess the risk level in our area? (In assessing risk, FYI, I am thinking of Dr. Wachter’s excellent graph which he uses to assess risk and adjust personal behaviors accordingly.)
Chicago area- our hospital has frequent 10 + hr rates in the ED bc there are no beds in the hospital. This has been going on for months. Not terrible resp infection rates mostly the usual stuff
More anecdotal data for you: work for a community hospital in Southern California with about 500 beds and we’ve been strained this whole season. We’re all burnt out.
I’ll add to the anecdotal hospitalization reports after calling the ER on my way into work listening to this post! Here in South Jersey my health system reports ER and inpatient beds are “tight” but not critical. Improved from the last couple weeks but still “tight.”
Despite “abysmal” vaccination rates, and the missed opportunities for many people to be less sick, a spring booster seems like a good idea for those still playing the game. Dr. Daniel Griffin from TWiV unofficially endorsed as much during his weekly clinical update this week for >65yo and high risk.
I’ll take any opportunity to keep priming the well, as antigenic imprinting and other fears have not significantly materialized when compared to benefits most evident in higher risk individuals.
And if most of the additional benefit (in terms of long Covid prevention) with vaccines/boosts comes from that short lived but real 50->40->30% reduction in transmission for 3-4 months, sign me up. Each pair of dice left unrolled with Covid is good. Good for less severe disease, long Covid, and community transmission.
One can’t help but wonder how this season, particularly the strain on hospitals today, would be different if more people wore a mask/respirator. 😷
One can’t help but wonder how this season, particularly the strain on hospitals today, would be different if more businesses/schools/governments cleaned indoor air. 😤
Thanks to both of you for this report. Vaccines at the beginning of the block of Swiss cheese, YES. There are many of us still adding the extra slices of indoor masking, avoiding large crowds, and bringing in fresh air as best we can. Your reports very much matter to me. We’re tired, but the extra slices still matter for all of us. Onward.
Thank you for the update!
You'd mentioned that you expect the CDC to possibly change isolation guidelines for Covid: well California just relaxed covid isolation to leave as soon as you have no fever, just mask and avoid people at high risk. I realize that isolating for too long is a social burden, but letting it rip is also a social burden. Those of us at higher risk don't wear a sign or can avoid easily without undue isolation--also a social burden. Can you address this in a future post?
I can corroborate the packed hospital information. My hospital is full every day with overflow patients holding in the ED for beds we don’t have. It’s insanity. And it repeats every single day.
Is there any data about whether these 47 pediatric deaths were in unvaccinated children? I think that information would be powerful to help persuade some parents to vaccinate!
Thank you for this very helpful and informative state of affairs and thank you for doing this for all of us!
There seems to be a paradox right now: covid in wastewater is at an all-time high yet most of the sick people I know right now swear they have a cold or the flu - and are right out there on airplanes and in movie theaters - unmasked - despite being sick. Because they “don’t have covid!”
And hospitals wouldn’t be so full if we had better therapeutics and access to them. This is the problem with our “vaccine, vaccine, vaccine” strategy. We’ve under-invested in life saving treatments.
Thanks for the interesting stat on the UK and how flu, not covid, is the primary reason for hospitalization. I’d be curious which covid vaccine NHS is giving to the 65+ crowd, as it’s my understanding there’s not much choice when it comes to manufacturer.
Regarding the question of spring covid 19 vaccinations for those over 65, what about those who are immune compromised? I am under 65 and immune compromised and would like the spring shot as well, will I be able to get it??
I am a gerontological NP and just left primary care at a large hospital system. I can corroborate the busy ERs as I heard stories of long waits from my patients. The burnout and low staffing continues all over the system. Cannot get scans and non-surgical procedures scheduled in a timely manner—meaning not without a 3-month or longer wait. Nurses have been in short supply since I started 40 years ago; the shortage was never a priority and never addressed. Then came the pandemic and Boom! I do not see a recovety from low nurse staffing any time soon. Our system’s priority is cutting back on employee programs to recoup the ginormous amount of $$ lost paying for traveling nurses.
We also had a large number of Covid infections among our population; some combined with RSV as well. Most folks had already received vaccination #6.
There aren't any Randomized Controlled Trials that show a mortality or hospitalization benefit for any of the Covid shots. So, claims that if only more people got vaccinated we'd see less death and fewer people in the hospital aren't based on any evidence. In fact, excess mortality rose globally after mass vaccination started in winter/spring 2021. That isn't conclusive proof of anything, but it should definitely give you pause regarding the efficacy of these shots.
Thank you for this clear, timely information, as always! I was interested in the statement: “There is still a lot of variability on the local level. For example, many cities—like San Jose, Chicago, and Miami—have yet to peak.” I am concerned, and have just written to my councilman once again about this, that New York City has no data included in the CDC trend line. It appears to be continually too late in reporting out these data to be included. (As of yesterday, the latest reported information from NYC to New York State was from 1/2/24, for example.) Given this, can those of us who are in NYC even use the known trend levels to assess risk and adjust our behavior as needed? And, if not, what can we do to best assess the risk level in our area? (In assessing risk, FYI, I am thinking of Dr. Wachter’s excellent graph which he uses to assess risk and adjust personal behaviors accordingly.)
Chicago area- our hospital has frequent 10 + hr rates in the ED bc there are no beds in the hospital. This has been going on for months. Not terrible resp infection rates mostly the usual stuff
More anecdotal data for you: work for a community hospital in Southern California with about 500 beds and we’ve been strained this whole season. We’re all burnt out.
Thank you for all of this clear information. Thank you, thank you.
Please address the isolation changes for positive but asymptomatic Covid now in place in California.