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Vaccine Table Update: May 5, 2021
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Vaccine Table Update: May 5, 2021

Katelyn Jetelina
May 7, 2021
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Vaccine Table Update: May 5, 2021
yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

Okay, lots of vaccine info coming in. Here is the updated Table (changes from last iteration are in peach). Details are below.

JJ

  • Real world effectiveness is 76.7% among patients in the Mayo Clinic Health system between February 27th and April 14th, 2021. Unfortunately, the virus was not sequences, so we don’t know which variant these patients had. But fantastic news, nonetheless (source here)

Novavax

  • In the Phase II trial in South Africa, 49% efficacy in HIV+ and HIV- participants (here)

  • Efficacy in HIV-negative participants was 60% and did not differ by presence of antibodies at baseline (here)

  • Interestingly, authors found that among the placebo group, prior natural infection provided no protection against COVID19 when infected with the B.1.351 variant (here)

  • Enrollment open for pediatric study (press release here)

AstraZeneca

  • Continues to look good against B.1.1.7 (here)

  • Is not looking good against B.1.351, resulting in a very low efficacy rate (here)

Pfizer

I’ve noticed, with Pfizer, that research findings are starting to get repetitive. This means that we are getting closer and closer to the “true” rates of efficacy and transmission reduction.

  • Efficacy

    • Looks good against B.1.1.7 (Qatar study showed 87-90%)

    • Looks good against B.1.351 (Qatar study showed 72-75%)

  • Protection from hospitalization

    • United States: Real world effectiveness against hospitalizations is lower than clinical trials (95% vs 100%), but not by much. Looking great. (here)

    • Israel: Among 4.5 million people, vaccine led to 97% reduction in hospitalization (here)

  • Protection from death

    • In Qatar, there were 1,616 breakthrough cases out of 265,410 (0.6%) people vaccinated with two doses. Among those breakthrough cases, there were 2 COVID19 related deaths.

    • In Israel, among 4.5 million people, the vaccine led to 97% reduction in COVID19 related deaths (here)

  • Transmission reduction

    • 86% lower incidence of asymptomatic infection more than 7 days after the second dose in a retrospective cohort of healthcare workers in Israel (here)

    • Vaccine effectiveness is 92% against asymptomatic infection in Israel

    • In the United States, vaccinated had a 72% lower incidence of asymptomatic infection (here)

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Vaccine Table Update: May 5, 2021
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Dee
May 7, 2021Liked by Katelyn Jetelina

Dee9 min ago

Hi Katelyn, Do you know when Moderna is expected to have similar updated results from real world studies? Also, where the chart says 'vaccine works', does that mean same efficacy as with old variant until known otherwise?

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jb510
May 7, 2021Liked by Katelyn Jetelina

Based on the remarkable efficacy (original and variants) of the mRNA vaccines, do you think most future vaccines will adopt this technology? I do know there are mRNA influenza vaccines in the works, but seems odd they’ve been in development for so long and still not in use. Do you think mRNA vaccine approvals will speed up?

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