Watching wildfire smoke blanket the Northeast U.S. and parts of Canada over the past few days has been surreal. Air quality is impacted for tens of millions of people, with off the charts pollutant levels in some areas. I can’t help but notice striking comparisons with this public health problem to another— the pandemic.
Yep, and climate change is more than “a problem”: it, along with nuclear weapons, is going to destroy the basis for any kind of semi-decent organized society. Thing is, nukes have to be used—an act of commission. We have dodged that, often out of sheer luck, for 80 years. Our luck will run out sooner or later.
With carbon, we have to do something to stop it. An act of commission to stop it. It’s not going well.
Of course, if unchecked, climate chaos will lead to resource wars. Example: as the Himalayan glacier-river system tanks, do you think India and Pakistan will sit down and nobly divvy up the starvation proportionally? They have almost come to nuclear blows a couple of times over nationalist idiocy, mostly.
Studies of a full exchange have been done: the fires even of a small nuclear war—couple hundred bombs—throws up enough soot to kill photosynthesis, effectively—at least human agriculture—for 2-3 years. Billions starve—it’s a total catastrophe. The end of civilization.
That’s the future if we don’t act now. Physically guaranteed.
The joke is that this reality is so dire, everyone feels what you, Dear Reader, are feeling right now: “I don’t want to believe it.” Because the second you do—really believe it—you’re on the moral hook to do something about it, especially if you have kids.
This is why the right won on Covid and why it will win, period. They offer total escape from responsibility into a solipsistic fantasyland, complete with not just comforting delusions but also highly useful targets for organized sadism, enemies at home and abroad who will be blamed as things fall apart.
Cuz these yahoos are going to floor carbon. They will solve no problems, take no responsibility or blame.
Just like most of us, I fear.
But I plan to continue doing what you and most on here do: see dire reality, have the guts not to deny it, take the responsibility, and never shirk from laying it out even though Cassandras don’t get treated well.
Go down, if we are to, with your values intact. Not on your knees. It’s why I support this Substack. Keep playing the game properly even if there are few in the stadium, as it were.
Completely agree with the “three things” that got people to wear masks again. But I think you overlooked an important fourth one ( though it’s related to number 3) Temporary vs ( seemingly) permanent. Telling/asking/suggesting people do something for a very limited amount of time is WAY more palatable than a seemingly never ending situation ( or heaven forbid) constantly “moving the goal posts”. Novel vs familiar is a bit different. It suggests the shock of the new vs old hat. But temporary vs permanent plays on different parts of the human psyche.
Similarly…in a different situation….I think the message that was able to be given regarding Mpox ( make changes until you are vaccinated) was one of the reasons why you got a high degree of “buy in”.
A few days of masking til air quality improved ( there was lots of information out there that this would get better…and it has) is fundamentally different than an endless situation. But the immediate effects and visibility of the threat are still the most important.
Terrific, informative piece about a subject that has become all too real here in Western Oregon these past few years, since 2015. The comparison with Covid-19, both physically and in terms of human behaviors is very apt.
The worst wildfire smoke here in the Portland metro area was September 2020, when, at one point, our AQI reached 400, something unfortunately NYC got to experience this week. Sickly yellow orange toxic “death cloud” I dubbed it. We were already staying at home because of the Covid pandemic, but this literally kept us in the house because we didn’t trust our cloth masks and didn’t yet have access to N95s. The Climate changed-caused conditions here in late summers (from Northern California up into British Columbia) that wildfires can blaze and send deadly smoke our way.
We have a stock of N95s and an air purifier, and lean heavily on the AirNow app to monitor our AQI.
I was frustrated in 2020 and 2022 because the media centers of the US didn’t really report just how horrifically bad the air here had become, very much like this week in the eastern U.S. Tragically, now, everyone faces the potential risk of this dangerous event. Thank you so much for this excellent piece.
We would greatly appreciate more information on what air purifiers to purchase. Also, what should we purchase to measure the air quality outside our home and inside our home? We are far from the smoke. I began walking today and noticed unusual, small breathing difficulties on my usual walk. I encountered a man with a mask on due to the Canadian fires. He said his home's outdoor air quality was not good yesterday. We want to start measuring both inside and outside air quality near our home. How to do this?
BTW, I would be interested in a post on ventilation that includes suggestions for private homes/apartments and also includes what to do if ventilation efforts for Covid, like opening windows, should not be used (the smoke in NYC brought that conundrum vividly to life). We do have Coway air filters, and thanks to Ryan McCormick’s recommendation in comments here and on his Substack, I bought a CO2 monitor, too. It would be helpful to learn more about how to use these tools most effectively, particularly when we should not open windows to increase ventilation.
Thank you for the really great article. The pictures were very helpful in making your points and your points were well made!
I am shocked that any news organization could make a statement that the smoke is not hazardous, and still have viewers. People have learned over the years that cigarette smoke is bad, standing where the wind blows the campfire smoke is unpleasant, firefighters wear masks, etc. It boggles my mind that someone could even try to spin something that way!
Dr. Jetelina to the rescue, once again! One question: when you refer to N95s, are you including within that KN95s? I ask because I notice that it’s sometimes, but not always, true that folks are referring to both.
Just an observation related to this that I think speaks to how many people seem to be of the view that responding to an event like this is solely a matter of personal responsibility, and we should not need government for communication, help, or support. Mara Gay wrote an op-ed on what NYC's mayor should or might have done but did not do in response to the current wildfire smoke.
Take a look at the "reader's picks." Here's an example of one along the lines of what I'm describing: "Good grief. Are we really that helpless? I guess we should demand the mayor hand out sunscreen when the UV index rises this summer."
What this says to me is that a lot of folks need an education in public health and also need to raise their expectations of--and support for properly funding--public health. This is not to say that individuals don't need to take responsibility, too, but as Dr. Jetelina so beautifuly demonstrates here and in every post--and just by stepping up as she does--individuals need information and guidance to help them know what steps they should take.
I'd be interested in what others think about this.
Thanks for this great post! Relevant to the idea that people are less likely to act when effects are immediate, I am struck that potential long-term effects of COVID are often delayed by a significant time period (much longer than the few days it takes to have the initial symptoms). Long covid, vascular damage and organ damage may not appear for weeks or months, and, because of the delay, not even appear causally connected to having had covid. As you say, such a delay makes it difficult for people to feel motivated to act now.
Here in Brooklyn, New York, I measured (using a Temtop M10) an outdoor AQI of 500 (as high as the monitor can go) on the worst day. One the ground floor, with one to two HEPA filters per room, the rooms being only moderate in size, the AQI was yet over 100. (I have a Coway, a Winix, a Honeywell, and a Whirlpool on that floor) all on top speed.
To see if I could improve this, in one upstairs bedroom I moved in 4 HEPA filters (2 Whirlpool, 1 Coway, and 1 Winix), and after maybe a half hour they read AQI 150 (while outdoors it was AQI 500, or more). Today, the outdoor AQI being 58, indoors on the first floor I measure AQI at 12, and PM 2.5 at 3.
So, what's going on here? Yes it's an unscientific uncontrolled hodgepodge (windows closed but still outdoor air seeps in; outdoor AQI constantly changing). However, the Temtop was able to measure both 500 then, and 12 now for AQI, so clearly it's working. But 4 HEPAs in a small room not bettering AQI of 150 -- that's unexpected. And yes after many hours that improved, but that might have been because of a change in outdoor pollution.
Tests of HEPAs by reliable sources indicate usually a 99% reduction in an hour in a single room. But this is for 12 seconds from a fog machine (Vacuum Wars) or burning a small bunch of wood matches (The Wirecutter of NY Times). Perhaps in the real world of forest fire smoke, this performance can't quite hold up. My guess: In the real world, the smoke keeps coming.
Apologies if this has already been posted, but a proven effective MacGyver’d air purifier for smoke is a 20” box fan + 20” MERV13 or higher furnace filter. I don’t bother with tape because suction from the fan keeps it on. YMMV. Depending on your box fan, you might have to make a hole in the filer to pass the cord through. I had to get creative in 2020 when the entire west coast was blanketed in smoke, because all local stores and online (Home Depot, Lowes, Amazon, etc) were sold out. Ended up buying online from a home improvement store in the midwest that didn’t have smoke (thus everything was in stock). I now buy replacement filters outside of fire season. Instructions here: https://deohs.washington.edu/edge/blog/how-make-box-fan-filter-clean-indoor-air-smoke .
Thanks KJ for a fine summary of the impact of wildfire smoke, which has increased over time.
It's worth looking at smoke images from satellites and data from sensors at ground level to see the great intensity and rapid 'travel' of smoke plumes...the PurpleAir network lets you plot the time history of the smoke in your location, as well as seeing where it is coming from (www.purpleair.com). We have PurpleAir laser sensors for fine particles, indoors and outdoors, and they show that outdoor smoke can penetrate homes even with windows closed.
There is much that can be done to monitor and improve indoor air quality. For example some cities have responded to air pollution in schools, installing air sensors in all classrooms (for Boston visit https://www.bostonpublicschools.org/Page/8810 ).
The rising challenge of smoke to global health has been documented by the Gates-funded IHME (Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation) here in Seattle, and their Global Burden of Disease publications (https://www.healthdata.org/air-pollution). In many countries poor air quality ranks among the leading causes of illness and mortality.
Air filtering, ventilating, masking can greatly protect us...but outdoor workers are especially vulnerable, and difficult to protect.
Thank you! Again an excellent and useful column. I spent the week drawing graduating high school students. Caught between dreams for their future and harsh realities of their present, they seem aware of the contradictions.
Let's look at one ACTUAL relative diameter vs its GRAPHED relative diameter. (The same understatement holds for other size comparisons).
A coronavirus virion (any type, not just SARS-CoV-2) has a (sans-spikes) diameter of 0.1 (± 0.02) microns. A red blood cell has a (long) diameter of 8.1 (± 0.6) microns.
So, actually the diameter of a red blood cell is 81 times that of a coronavirus virion. But, in that graphic, the ratio is only 3.25 times. To see how the cell actually dwarfs the virion, blow up that cell another 25 X.
It would be nice to have a graphic like this but suggesting relative sizes more faithfully.
Yep, and climate change is more than “a problem”: it, along with nuclear weapons, is going to destroy the basis for any kind of semi-decent organized society. Thing is, nukes have to be used—an act of commission. We have dodged that, often out of sheer luck, for 80 years. Our luck will run out sooner or later.
With carbon, we have to do something to stop it. An act of commission to stop it. It’s not going well.
Of course, if unchecked, climate chaos will lead to resource wars. Example: as the Himalayan glacier-river system tanks, do you think India and Pakistan will sit down and nobly divvy up the starvation proportionally? They have almost come to nuclear blows a couple of times over nationalist idiocy, mostly.
Studies of a full exchange have been done: the fires even of a small nuclear war—couple hundred bombs—throws up enough soot to kill photosynthesis, effectively—at least human agriculture—for 2-3 years. Billions starve—it’s a total catastrophe. The end of civilization.
That’s the future if we don’t act now. Physically guaranteed.
The joke is that this reality is so dire, everyone feels what you, Dear Reader, are feeling right now: “I don’t want to believe it.” Because the second you do—really believe it—you’re on the moral hook to do something about it, especially if you have kids.
This is why the right won on Covid and why it will win, period. They offer total escape from responsibility into a solipsistic fantasyland, complete with not just comforting delusions but also highly useful targets for organized sadism, enemies at home and abroad who will be blamed as things fall apart.
Cuz these yahoos are going to floor carbon. They will solve no problems, take no responsibility or blame.
Just like most of us, I fear.
But I plan to continue doing what you and most on here do: see dire reality, have the guts not to deny it, take the responsibility, and never shirk from laying it out even though Cassandras don’t get treated well.
Go down, if we are to, with your values intact. Not on your knees. It’s why I support this Substack. Keep playing the game properly even if there are few in the stadium, as it were.
Completely agree with the “three things” that got people to wear masks again. But I think you overlooked an important fourth one ( though it’s related to number 3) Temporary vs ( seemingly) permanent. Telling/asking/suggesting people do something for a very limited amount of time is WAY more palatable than a seemingly never ending situation ( or heaven forbid) constantly “moving the goal posts”. Novel vs familiar is a bit different. It suggests the shock of the new vs old hat. But temporary vs permanent plays on different parts of the human psyche.
Similarly…in a different situation….I think the message that was able to be given regarding Mpox ( make changes until you are vaccinated) was one of the reasons why you got a high degree of “buy in”.
A few days of masking til air quality improved ( there was lots of information out there that this would get better…and it has) is fundamentally different than an endless situation. But the immediate effects and visibility of the threat are still the most important.
Terrific, informative piece about a subject that has become all too real here in Western Oregon these past few years, since 2015. The comparison with Covid-19, both physically and in terms of human behaviors is very apt.
The worst wildfire smoke here in the Portland metro area was September 2020, when, at one point, our AQI reached 400, something unfortunately NYC got to experience this week. Sickly yellow orange toxic “death cloud” I dubbed it. We were already staying at home because of the Covid pandemic, but this literally kept us in the house because we didn’t trust our cloth masks and didn’t yet have access to N95s. The Climate changed-caused conditions here in late summers (from Northern California up into British Columbia) that wildfires can blaze and send deadly smoke our way.
We have a stock of N95s and an air purifier, and lean heavily on the AirNow app to monitor our AQI.
I was frustrated in 2020 and 2022 because the media centers of the US didn’t really report just how horrifically bad the air here had become, very much like this week in the eastern U.S. Tragically, now, everyone faces the potential risk of this dangerous event. Thank you so much for this excellent piece.
We would greatly appreciate more information on what air purifiers to purchase. Also, what should we purchase to measure the air quality outside our home and inside our home? We are far from the smoke. I began walking today and noticed unusual, small breathing difficulties on my usual walk. I encountered a man with a mask on due to the Canadian fires. He said his home's outdoor air quality was not good yesterday. We want to start measuring both inside and outside air quality near our home. How to do this?
BTW, I would be interested in a post on ventilation that includes suggestions for private homes/apartments and also includes what to do if ventilation efforts for Covid, like opening windows, should not be used (the smoke in NYC brought that conundrum vividly to life). We do have Coway air filters, and thanks to Ryan McCormick’s recommendation in comments here and on his Substack, I bought a CO2 monitor, too. It would be helpful to learn more about how to use these tools most effectively, particularly when we should not open windows to increase ventilation.
I'm in NYC so particularly grateful for your thoughts. It's been a dramatic and frighteningly visceral education in climate change.
Thank you for the really great article. The pictures were very helpful in making your points and your points were well made!
I am shocked that any news organization could make a statement that the smoke is not hazardous, and still have viewers. People have learned over the years that cigarette smoke is bad, standing where the wind blows the campfire smoke is unpleasant, firefighters wear masks, etc. It boggles my mind that someone could even try to spin something that way!
Dr. Jetelina to the rescue, once again! One question: when you refer to N95s, are you including within that KN95s? I ask because I notice that it’s sometimes, but not always, true that folks are referring to both.
Just an observation related to this that I think speaks to how many people seem to be of the view that responding to an event like this is solely a matter of personal responsibility, and we should not need government for communication, help, or support. Mara Gay wrote an op-ed on what NYC's mayor should or might have done but did not do in response to the current wildfire smoke.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/09/opinion/wildfire-smoke-new-york-mayor.html
Take a look at the "reader's picks." Here's an example of one along the lines of what I'm describing: "Good grief. Are we really that helpless? I guess we should demand the mayor hand out sunscreen when the UV index rises this summer."
What this says to me is that a lot of folks need an education in public health and also need to raise their expectations of--and support for properly funding--public health. This is not to say that individuals don't need to take responsibility, too, but as Dr. Jetelina so beautifuly demonstrates here and in every post--and just by stepping up as she does--individuals need information and guidance to help them know what steps they should take.
I'd be interested in what others think about this.
Thanks for this great post! Relevant to the idea that people are less likely to act when effects are immediate, I am struck that potential long-term effects of COVID are often delayed by a significant time period (much longer than the few days it takes to have the initial symptoms). Long covid, vascular damage and organ damage may not appear for weeks or months, and, because of the delay, not even appear causally connected to having had covid. As you say, such a delay makes it difficult for people to feel motivated to act now.
Here in Brooklyn, New York, I measured (using a Temtop M10) an outdoor AQI of 500 (as high as the monitor can go) on the worst day. One the ground floor, with one to two HEPA filters per room, the rooms being only moderate in size, the AQI was yet over 100. (I have a Coway, a Winix, a Honeywell, and a Whirlpool on that floor) all on top speed.
To see if I could improve this, in one upstairs bedroom I moved in 4 HEPA filters (2 Whirlpool, 1 Coway, and 1 Winix), and after maybe a half hour they read AQI 150 (while outdoors it was AQI 500, or more). Today, the outdoor AQI being 58, indoors on the first floor I measure AQI at 12, and PM 2.5 at 3.
So, what's going on here? Yes it's an unscientific uncontrolled hodgepodge (windows closed but still outdoor air seeps in; outdoor AQI constantly changing). However, the Temtop was able to measure both 500 then, and 12 now for AQI, so clearly it's working. But 4 HEPAs in a small room not bettering AQI of 150 -- that's unexpected. And yes after many hours that improved, but that might have been because of a change in outdoor pollution.
Tests of HEPAs by reliable sources indicate usually a 99% reduction in an hour in a single room. But this is for 12 seconds from a fog machine (Vacuum Wars) or burning a small bunch of wood matches (The Wirecutter of NY Times). Perhaps in the real world of forest fire smoke, this performance can't quite hold up. My guess: In the real world, the smoke keeps coming.
Apologies if this has already been posted, but a proven effective MacGyver’d air purifier for smoke is a 20” box fan + 20” MERV13 or higher furnace filter. I don’t bother with tape because suction from the fan keeps it on. YMMV. Depending on your box fan, you might have to make a hole in the filer to pass the cord through. I had to get creative in 2020 when the entire west coast was blanketed in smoke, because all local stores and online (Home Depot, Lowes, Amazon, etc) were sold out. Ended up buying online from a home improvement store in the midwest that didn’t have smoke (thus everything was in stock). I now buy replacement filters outside of fire season. Instructions here: https://deohs.washington.edu/edge/blog/how-make-box-fan-filter-clean-indoor-air-smoke .
Thanks KJ for a fine summary of the impact of wildfire smoke, which has increased over time.
It's worth looking at smoke images from satellites and data from sensors at ground level to see the great intensity and rapid 'travel' of smoke plumes...the PurpleAir network lets you plot the time history of the smoke in your location, as well as seeing where it is coming from (www.purpleair.com). We have PurpleAir laser sensors for fine particles, indoors and outdoors, and they show that outdoor smoke can penetrate homes even with windows closed.
NASA's WorldView satellite images show many aspects of the fires, and the movement of smoke by weather systems (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/ ). See also www.windy.com .
There is much that can be done to monitor and improve indoor air quality. For example some cities have responded to air pollution in schools, installing air sensors in all classrooms (for Boston visit https://www.bostonpublicschools.org/Page/8810 ).
The rising challenge of smoke to global health has been documented by the Gates-funded IHME (Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation) here in Seattle, and their Global Burden of Disease publications (https://www.healthdata.org/air-pollution). In many countries poor air quality ranks among the leading causes of illness and mortality.
Air filtering, ventilating, masking can greatly protect us...but outdoor workers are especially vulnerable, and difficult to protect.
Thank you! Again an excellent and useful column. I spent the week drawing graduating high school students. Caught between dreams for their future and harsh realities of their present, they seem aware of the contradictions.
The graphic of relative particle sizes (from https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-relative-size-of-particles/) is engaging and informative, but beware, it is NOT AT ALL TO SCALE. It depicts "smaller" vs "larger" but grossly understates HOW MUCH larger.
Let's look at one ACTUAL relative diameter vs its GRAPHED relative diameter. (The same understatement holds for other size comparisons).
A coronavirus virion (any type, not just SARS-CoV-2) has a (sans-spikes) diameter of 0.1 (± 0.02) microns. A red blood cell has a (long) diameter of 8.1 (± 0.6) microns.
So, actually the diameter of a red blood cell is 81 times that of a coronavirus virion. But, in that graphic, the ratio is only 3.25 times. To see how the cell actually dwarfs the virion, blow up that cell another 25 X.
It would be nice to have a graphic like this but suggesting relative sizes more faithfully.
Let’s be smarter about the great “smokdemic”. Somebody hurry up and coin the new word! Oh yeah!