2021 Summer Olympics
In 52 days, the 2021 Summer Olympics will begin in Japan. This means 11,091 athletes and tens of thousands more coaches, officials, media and other support staff from 205 countries will gather in one place for two weeks to compete in 339 events. International spectators are not allowed to attend, but locals are.
This is a much anticipated event. We need, more than ever, global unity and inspiration. In 2020, the Games were postponed for the first time ever in hopes that the pandemic would be over in 2021. The only problem is that the pandemic is far from over.
Background transmission
Right now, transmission in Japan is relatively high. Since mid-February, Japan has been battling their forth wave. This led to a round of shutdowns starting on April 25, which has now been extended until June 20. Thankfully, the shut down is working and transmission is decelerating. Unfortunately, the Olympics start soon.
In Japan, variants are outpacing vaccinations.
According to the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, over 90% of cases in Japan are variants of concern, including B.1.1.7 (first detected in U.K.) and B.1.617 (first detected in India). While these are not more deadly, they are more transmissible.
Vaccines work against these variants. Unfortunately, though, only 7.73% of Japan has had at least one dose of the vaccine. This means Japan’s landscape is different than, for example, the U.S. or other developed countries.
The vaccination rate among athletes and staff attending the games is not as clear. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) stated that at least 80% of people staying in the Olympic village will have been vaccinated. And this may be true because Pfizer and Moderna recently donated vaccines to Olympic attendees. But, to others, that 80% figure doesn’t add up for a few reasons:
Vaccine authorization and availability is still lacking in more than 100 countries
Some athletes are choosing not to be vaccinated because of worries about the effects of vaccination on their performance, especially this close to the games
Some athletes are choosing not to be vaccinated because of ethical concerns about being prioritized ahead of health care workers and high risk groups
Most countries have not authorized adolescents between the ages of 15 and 17 years to be vaccinated. Even fewer countries have younger adolescents (under the age of 15) vaccinated.
Together, this has stirred quite the debate: Should the Olympics continue as planned?
Some say yes.
The IOC published a “playbook” in April 2021 entitled “Your Guide to Safe and Successful Games”. This included 60-page manuals for athletes, federations, Paralympic families, marketing partners, broadcasters, press, and workforce staff. At first glance, the manuals look thorough. Unfortunately, though, the playbooks are not built on scientific rigor (see below for more).
The Japanese government is also confident in moving forward with the Olympics. This is probably because if we cancel the games, it would cost Japan an estimated 1.81 trillion yen ($17 billion US dollars). However, Takahide Kiuchi, an economist at the Nomura Research Institute recognized: “Even if the games are canceled, the economic loss will be smaller than (the damage done by) a state of emergency"
Some say no.
In recent national polls, 60-80% of Japanese residents don’t agree that the Olympics should go on. The games could cause a fifth surge for their community. If the games do go ahead, 59% of residents said they want no spectators, with 33% backing lower fan numbers and 3% a regular capacity games.
Scientists are also concerned about current safety measures for athletes and staff. In a recent perspective published by the New England Journal of Medicine, scientists very publicly stated that the IOC does not have a rigorous risk management plan. And if they (or the WHO) doesn’t get a plan in place, “canceling the Games may be the safest option”. There is major concern around testing plans, contact tracing plans, transmission within noncompetition spaces, and transmission within certain high-risk competition spaces. As the authors stated, we know what works:
“IOC has not heeded lessons from other large sporting events. Many U.S.-based professional leagues, including the National Football League (NFL), the National Basketball Association, and the Women’s National Basketball Association, conducted successful seasons, but their protocols were rigorous and informed by an understanding of airborne transmission, asymptomatic spread, and the definition of close contacts”
Athletes are also concerned. Particularly over one small, but important detail: Waivers. Athletes were told by the IOC that they must sign a waiver releasing Olympic organizers from liability for COVID-19 related issues. Apparently this is standard practice. But, this year is anything but standard.
Bottom Line:
Keep a close eye on this in the upcoming weeks; it should be interesting to follow. I think one of two things will happen:
The Games will show that the globe can rally for a safe, international event; or,
The Games will show us how, by ignoring evidence-based practices, we can fail miserably.
TBD.
Love, YLE
Do we know if the protocols include regular testing of all involved for COVID-19 and what their isolation protocols are?