With this news about Delta being so much more transmissible, do we need to worry about it spreading more now on surfaces than with previous variants? Hearing it compared to being more contagious than small pox has started some discussions about how small pox could be spread on blankets or bedding (even though we all know there were scabs involved in that)….it still seems to have people wondering about delta spreading on surfaces more and I’d love your input about that. Thanks!
I'm old enough to remember smallpox and measles outbreaks and how fast they spread. The idea that mask free in person schools 6-8 hours a day every day of the week is the definition of a persistent super spreading event(s). I have this sinking feeling we are about to turn every school in the US into ongoing super spreader events.
I live in Texas where less than half of adults are vaccinated, about 19% of the population (~5.5MM) are between 5-18 years of age. Of those eligible for vaccinations that percentage appears to mirror the state numbers of less than 50% and that doesn't include the children less than 12 who currently get vaccinated.
The governors hyperventilating over masks and mandates seems to condemn the state to a even more massive outbreak and spike that will show up in late August or early September. Even though kids may not get as ill..at least thus far.. they can still spread the disease at school, in activities, and at home..not to mention un-vaccinated teachers and staff becoming infected, vaccinated or not.
No. this will be bad this fall if nothing changes. Even if we have some time tiny fraction of 1% of kids requiring hospitalization, we don't have the pediatric hospital capacity that we had even 20-30 years ago as most hospitals closed their pediatric wards due to lack of volume. Even major pediatric medical centers are no where near full during the summer when kids are least likely to get sick. That's how good all vaccinations have been at stopping or reducing the severity of disease that kids get. All we can hope for is a rapid vaccine roll out for all school aged kids when it gets approved.
I hope you are right and I do understand the reduced pediatric capacity...we're starting to get reports of increased pediatric admissions. Unfortunately unless something drastic changes vaccinations don't appear to be ramping up. Ages 12-17 are eligible for the vaccine but only about 30% are vaccinated. That age group covers junior high through high school. Wherever multiple schools; grade, junior high and high school share common facilities that means common exposure without masks. Certainly a low percentage of teacher and staff vaccinations won't help
Can you please comment at some point about the Provincetown study? I get that it may be too small to draw conclusions, but the number of experts saying, hey this shows the vaccines work bc few vaccinated were hospitalized and no vaccinated died is concerning to me, because no unvaccinated died either! And as a percentage, fewer infected unvaccinated were hospitalized than infected vaccinated. Those conclusions make no sense and it makes me wonder whether health experts just say "vaccines work" when they don't know what to say.
I realize small sample size, highly vaxxed cohort most likely, etc.
I don't specifically know the demographics of Provincetown, but do know that in general unvaccinated people are less likely to die or be hospitalized than previously. Many think it is because of the demographics of the vaccinated - a very high percentage of older and vulnerable people have been vaccinated, so those left unvaccinated are the people who would have been less likely to get severely ill before the vaccine.
With this news about Delta being so much more transmissible, do we need to worry about it spreading more now on surfaces than with previous variants? Hearing it compared to being more contagious than small pox has started some discussions about how small pox could be spread on blankets or bedding (even though we all know there were scabs involved in that)….it still seems to have people wondering about delta spreading on surfaces more and I’d love your input about that. Thanks!
I do not understand why "substantial" or "high" recommends masks indoors, but does not address eating indoors.
I'm old enough to remember smallpox and measles outbreaks and how fast they spread. The idea that mask free in person schools 6-8 hours a day every day of the week is the definition of a persistent super spreading event(s). I have this sinking feeling we are about to turn every school in the US into ongoing super spreader events.
I live in Texas where less than half of adults are vaccinated, about 19% of the population (~5.5MM) are between 5-18 years of age. Of those eligible for vaccinations that percentage appears to mirror the state numbers of less than 50% and that doesn't include the children less than 12 who currently get vaccinated.
The governors hyperventilating over masks and mandates seems to condemn the state to a even more massive outbreak and spike that will show up in late August or early September. Even though kids may not get as ill..at least thus far.. they can still spread the disease at school, in activities, and at home..not to mention un-vaccinated teachers and staff becoming infected, vaccinated or not.
Am I missing something?
No. this will be bad this fall if nothing changes. Even if we have some time tiny fraction of 1% of kids requiring hospitalization, we don't have the pediatric hospital capacity that we had even 20-30 years ago as most hospitals closed their pediatric wards due to lack of volume. Even major pediatric medical centers are no where near full during the summer when kids are least likely to get sick. That's how good all vaccinations have been at stopping or reducing the severity of disease that kids get. All we can hope for is a rapid vaccine roll out for all school aged kids when it gets approved.
I hope you are right and I do understand the reduced pediatric capacity...we're starting to get reports of increased pediatric admissions. Unfortunately unless something drastic changes vaccinations don't appear to be ramping up. Ages 12-17 are eligible for the vaccine but only about 30% are vaccinated. That age group covers junior high through high school. Wherever multiple schools; grade, junior high and high school share common facilities that means common exposure without masks. Certainly a low percentage of teacher and staff vaccinations won't help
Can you please comment at some point about the Provincetown study? I get that it may be too small to draw conclusions, but the number of experts saying, hey this shows the vaccines work bc few vaccinated were hospitalized and no vaccinated died is concerning to me, because no unvaccinated died either! And as a percentage, fewer infected unvaccinated were hospitalized than infected vaccinated. Those conclusions make no sense and it makes me wonder whether health experts just say "vaccines work" when they don't know what to say.
I realize small sample size, highly vaxxed cohort most likely, etc.
I don't specifically know the demographics of Provincetown, but do know that in general unvaccinated people are less likely to die or be hospitalized than previously. Many think it is because of the demographics of the vaccinated - a very high percentage of older and vulnerable people have been vaccinated, so those left unvaccinated are the people who would have been less likely to get severely ill before the vaccine.