As Omicron subvariants sweep the globe, the international death toll started rising for the first time in seven months. Although deaths still remain low, a 39% increase in death toll is noticeable. This increase is mainly driven by Southeast Asia (+20%), followed by the Eastern Mediterranean (+15%) and Americas (+7%).
I 'm really disappointed and worried about the number of experts being given media attention as they put their focus at how well we are doing against the virus, rather than focusing on the damage still being done and what can be done to combat it. Over 400 deaths a day is 150 thousand deaths a year - about 5 times the number of flu deaths in an average year. Where is the government money and will to keep fighting this disaster. Where is the financial support for new vaccines, including possible "universal" vaccines and nasal vaccines, and more anti-viral treatments? The effort to deal with Covid has gone from "warp speed" to a crawl. Where is the money and why have the CDC and FDA been allowed to return to the glacial speed which characterized their former review processes? The "new normal" is to sound the praises of our "successes" and encourage complacency. I am sorry to say that your article - as honest and informed as your writing always is - will be utilized as another expert opinion to add to the current analysis of the virus as mostly conquered and now something we'll just have to learn to live with. That is probably not your opinion but it will be read that way. Please emphasize how much more can and should be done, not just relying on individuals to protect themselves from a society which has apparently abandoned a sense of social responsiblity.
I apologize if this comment seems too strident and critical. I do appreciate your work very much which is why I am so upset at reading another article that seems to lend strength to those who want to "put it behind us".
Is there a decreased risk of severe disease at the individual level? This is something I have struggled to understand. I know many people have had COVID and/or had vaccines, which reduces their individual risk. But if you are a person who has not had COVID and is immunocompromised and high risk, is the disease really any less severe than it was 2.5 years ago? With precautions completely gone and transmission very high (at least where I live), it's hard not to feel like there is no hope for these people.
Covid, Polio, and Monkeypox, oh my! If ever there was a time we needed YLE it is the present. With climate change rapidly changing the epidemiological landscape, data-driven analysis is our best response. So keep it up Katelyn. Covid is definitely not leaving the stage yet. Worse it may be just the warm up act.
My husband and I, in our mid-70s, are aware that--despite several boosters--we'll continue to be at risk as long as the right wing's pro-COVID propaganda machine exists. Apart from voting, we can't come up with any way to stop it. That's disheartening (and don't get me started on Dobbs. I swear, GOP politicians and media personalities seem evil to me).
We can’t forget that many elderly have been vaxxed and boosted x 2 and are running out of time for immunity and possible prevention of serious outcomes. No clear path to the next step? Even Fauci hedging on this. What’s going on? Seems like we could be headed for another perfect storm to me.
As always, thank you for your hard work and wisdom, Dr. Jetelina.
Have you heard any whispers about approval of a 4th dose (2nd booster) for people under 50? I thought that was coming last week, but then I didn't hear anything.
We heard of a great project. A friend was visiting family in the Toronto general area and the local libraries were lending out CO2 meters so that members could check the ventilation in buildings.
I'm actually concerned we're seeing fewer diagnoses that include "with COVID" today. Also, I'm aware that there are some medical facilities no longer testing for outpatient procedures. The upshot of this is we are missing hospitalization data specifically for COVID, but may see increases in hospitalizations that are non-specific. At that point what we'll have is the pandemic-averse telling us it's no longer a COVID problem but people are just getting sicker.
I'm wondering if the reason we ARE apparently seeing less severe disease is the combination of slowly increasing vaccination totals, and omicron infection providing a more omicron-specific hybrid immunity for BA.5 in the US vice other countries where they might have avoided the initial omicron surge, but are now caught in the BA.5 push.
Thank you for this piece - and like @David McNiff, I hope it will be experienced as both reason for (cautious) optimism and importantly as a guide on how to be aware. Unfortunately, there are enough nuances and potential consequences (intended or not) that many people are just looking for thumbs-up-or-down message (especially ones that concur with what they already believe). For example, the charts comparing hospitalizations in unvaccinated, vax/not boosted, vax/boosted look like being unvaccinated --> likelier to be hospitalized but there are articles floating around that purport to conclude exactly the opposite. And, as you point out, it's not always easy to distinguish hospitalized because of Covid vs. with Covid not complicating the clinical picture vs. Covid complicating the clinical picture (i.e., Covid + existing clinical picture). The measure, excess hospitalizations, is useful as an overall impact metric but how do we count the part of the 'excess' stemming from e.g., more advanced cancer due to delayed detection or worse heart failure because patient didn't want to leave the safety of their home?
I have just been reading about Evushield. It's not the firsts time I've heard of it, but the gist of the story is that the treatment is woefully unpublicized. In the article it noted that this was available due to an FDA EAU provision. The article also went on to indicate that this was for the immunocompromised and immuno (insuffiecient). That reminded me that there are many studies and anecdotal stories about how vulnerable the elderly are compared to the general population. Why aren't the elderly being included in the "most vulnerable" category along with the "immunocompromised" whenever treatments or recommendations are brought up. Surely what matters is the ability for immune systems to fight off the virus and the elderly suffer from that problem in a big way. So far the only example of acknowledging that basic truth is the availability of a second booster and I have seen much published demographic information on how much that helps the elderly versus the general population.
A few people on Twitter were tracking 2.75 in various Indian regions and it looks like it's not necessarily outcompeting BA.5. Is that the general consensus then, that 's likely to be regional based on prior Omicron exposure?
Dr. Jetelina, do you have any reliable models for assessing Covid infection likelihood for vaccinated but unmasked travelers on a plane flight, presuming that most travelers on the flight aren't masked? Asking primarily for vaccinated kiddos that can't mask (<2 yrs old).
Thank you so much for these updates! I'm wondering if there is any data on the effectiveness of Evusheld against the newer variants. My mother is immunocompromised and we have applied for the treatment (supply is limited), but now I'm wondering if it will offer her any additional protection against this current strain.
Dr. Jetelina, with so few cases actually being reported and the majority of people (in the U.S., anyway) relying on home tests, how are they getting data to track variants? Is it relying on people who wind up in the hospital? My child has covid, and I assume she has BA.5 but it made me realize that there would be no way for officials to watch variants if there's no "official" test (I did report her positive to my county health department, but I don't think they even track much anymore).
I 'm really disappointed and worried about the number of experts being given media attention as they put their focus at how well we are doing against the virus, rather than focusing on the damage still being done and what can be done to combat it. Over 400 deaths a day is 150 thousand deaths a year - about 5 times the number of flu deaths in an average year. Where is the government money and will to keep fighting this disaster. Where is the financial support for new vaccines, including possible "universal" vaccines and nasal vaccines, and more anti-viral treatments? The effort to deal with Covid has gone from "warp speed" to a crawl. Where is the money and why have the CDC and FDA been allowed to return to the glacial speed which characterized their former review processes? The "new normal" is to sound the praises of our "successes" and encourage complacency. I am sorry to say that your article - as honest and informed as your writing always is - will be utilized as another expert opinion to add to the current analysis of the virus as mostly conquered and now something we'll just have to learn to live with. That is probably not your opinion but it will be read that way. Please emphasize how much more can and should be done, not just relying on individuals to protect themselves from a society which has apparently abandoned a sense of social responsiblity.
I apologize if this comment seems too strident and critical. I do appreciate your work very much which is why I am so upset at reading another article that seems to lend strength to those who want to "put it behind us".
Is there a decreased risk of severe disease at the individual level? This is something I have struggled to understand. I know many people have had COVID and/or had vaccines, which reduces their individual risk. But if you are a person who has not had COVID and is immunocompromised and high risk, is the disease really any less severe than it was 2.5 years ago? With precautions completely gone and transmission very high (at least where I live), it's hard not to feel like there is no hope for these people.
Covid, Polio, and Monkeypox, oh my! If ever there was a time we needed YLE it is the present. With climate change rapidly changing the epidemiological landscape, data-driven analysis is our best response. So keep it up Katelyn. Covid is definitely not leaving the stage yet. Worse it may be just the warm up act.
My husband and I, in our mid-70s, are aware that--despite several boosters--we'll continue to be at risk as long as the right wing's pro-COVID propaganda machine exists. Apart from voting, we can't come up with any way to stop it. That's disheartening (and don't get me started on Dobbs. I swear, GOP politicians and media personalities seem evil to me).
We can’t forget that many elderly have been vaxxed and boosted x 2 and are running out of time for immunity and possible prevention of serious outcomes. No clear path to the next step? Even Fauci hedging on this. What’s going on? Seems like we could be headed for another perfect storm to me.
As always, thank you for your hard work and wisdom, Dr. Jetelina.
Have you heard any whispers about approval of a 4th dose (2nd booster) for people under 50? I thought that was coming last week, but then I didn't hear anything.
Thank you!
We heard of a great project. A friend was visiting family in the Toronto general area and the local libraries were lending out CO2 meters so that members could check the ventilation in buildings.
I'm actually concerned we're seeing fewer diagnoses that include "with COVID" today. Also, I'm aware that there are some medical facilities no longer testing for outpatient procedures. The upshot of this is we are missing hospitalization data specifically for COVID, but may see increases in hospitalizations that are non-specific. At that point what we'll have is the pandemic-averse telling us it's no longer a COVID problem but people are just getting sicker.
I'm wondering if the reason we ARE apparently seeing less severe disease is the combination of slowly increasing vaccination totals, and omicron infection providing a more omicron-specific hybrid immunity for BA.5 in the US vice other countries where they might have avoided the initial omicron surge, but are now caught in the BA.5 push.
Thank you for this piece - and like @David McNiff, I hope it will be experienced as both reason for (cautious) optimism and importantly as a guide on how to be aware. Unfortunately, there are enough nuances and potential consequences (intended or not) that many people are just looking for thumbs-up-or-down message (especially ones that concur with what they already believe). For example, the charts comparing hospitalizations in unvaccinated, vax/not boosted, vax/boosted look like being unvaccinated --> likelier to be hospitalized but there are articles floating around that purport to conclude exactly the opposite. And, as you point out, it's not always easy to distinguish hospitalized because of Covid vs. with Covid not complicating the clinical picture vs. Covid complicating the clinical picture (i.e., Covid + existing clinical picture). The measure, excess hospitalizations, is useful as an overall impact metric but how do we count the part of the 'excess' stemming from e.g., more advanced cancer due to delayed detection or worse heart failure because patient didn't want to leave the safety of their home?
I have just been reading about Evushield. It's not the firsts time I've heard of it, but the gist of the story is that the treatment is woefully unpublicized. In the article it noted that this was available due to an FDA EAU provision. The article also went on to indicate that this was for the immunocompromised and immuno (insuffiecient). That reminded me that there are many studies and anecdotal stories about how vulnerable the elderly are compared to the general population. Why aren't the elderly being included in the "most vulnerable" category along with the "immunocompromised" whenever treatments or recommendations are brought up. Surely what matters is the ability for immune systems to fight off the virus and the elderly suffer from that problem in a big way. So far the only example of acknowledging that basic truth is the availability of a second booster and I have seen much published demographic information on how much that helps the elderly versus the general population.
A few people on Twitter were tracking 2.75 in various Indian regions and it looks like it's not necessarily outcompeting BA.5. Is that the general consensus then, that 's likely to be regional based on prior Omicron exposure?
Danish study hints that vax + BA1/2 infection has decent and lasting immunity against BA5.
Maybe that's why our BA5 wave might be fizzling.
Dr. Jetelina, do you have any reliable models for assessing Covid infection likelihood for vaccinated but unmasked travelers on a plane flight, presuming that most travelers on the flight aren't masked? Asking primarily for vaccinated kiddos that can't mask (<2 yrs old).
More BA5 fizzle evidence
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.27.22277602v1
Thank you so much for these updates! I'm wondering if there is any data on the effectiveness of Evusheld against the newer variants. My mother is immunocompromised and we have applied for the treatment (supply is limited), but now I'm wondering if it will offer her any additional protection against this current strain.
Dr. Jetelina, with so few cases actually being reported and the majority of people (in the U.S., anyway) relying on home tests, how are they getting data to track variants? Is it relying on people who wind up in the hospital? My child has covid, and I assume she has BA.5 but it made me realize that there would be no way for officials to watch variants if there's no "official" test (I did report her positive to my county health department, but I don't think they even track much anymore).