Driven by Omicron sub-variants, country-level hotspots are now peppered across the globe. Yesterday, the WHO reported cases are on the rise in 110 countries, causing overall global cases to increase by 30% over the past two weeks. Of course, these numbers and country-level comparisons are only as accurate as testing and reporting.
I really appreciate your blog posts, especially about COVID. With public interest waning and with a decreased demand or public interest for updated information, it is becoming harder to find science based information I can count on. So thank you so much for your work; I am very grateful!
I really appreciate this as it’s become impossible to get accurate information with the lack of testing and most departments of health ramping down.
I just read that “ pandemic fatigue “ is overstated in the media and the people most at risk— front line, essential workers, people without paid sick leave, etc— are still very much interested in accurate information and how to keep themselves safe. Kaiser Family Foundation polls consistently show more people are still concerned but perceive that “back to normal “ is the norm, so they/ we think we’re in the minority of people who still recognize that the pandemic isn’t over. Information is power, and your information is so crucial. Thank you!
Dr. Jetelina, could you please, please just throw in a couple of sentences about Evusheld occasionally? I did a google search of your name + Evusheld, and nothing came up. Looks like you have never mentioned this medication for the immune-compromised. How about an occasional mention? The immune-compromised mostly feel ignored and written off in discussions of covid, vaccination, etc. Please don't participate in that trend. Evusheld is a bit of a niche topic, but not all THAT niche. Something like 3% of the population is immune-compromised enough to qualify for it. You have a large readership, and are in a position to make a difference in the general ignorance about Evusheld. Please look for opportunities to mention it once in a while. A couple sentences a month from you could make a real difference.
For the immune-compromised Evusheld is the only way to get "vaccinated." The stuff has been available for 6 months, and is being distributed at a slow trickle. The main barrier to people getting it is lack of information. Patients who qualify have no idea this option is available. Doctors are very underinformed. It was bought and distributed to states by the government, and so was not advertised in the usual way. No pharma reps gave talks about it to doctors at dinners, or dropped by their offices with brochures. Some doctors do not even know Evusheld exists. Some are grossly misinformed -- they think it is only available for people with extremely compromised immune systems, such as people who just had an organ transplant. That is not true. They think there is almost none available. That is also not true. In 6 months, only about 1/3 of what was ordered has been given to patients -- the rest is gathering dust on shelves.
For those who are curious about Evusheld: It is an injection that gives people a long-lasting supply of antibodies that combat covid. People whose immune system is damaged do not make antibodies when vaccinated, so an injection of Evusheld is the only way they can be given antibodies. The main barrier to people getting it is lack of information.
The volunteer organization I work for has an Evusheld guide available at https://rrelyea.github.io/evusheld/guide/. There's also a site that helps you search for sites offering Evusheld near you: rrelyea.github.io/evusheld/. Both sites are free and do not ask you to register.
Your ability to write clear and helpful updates helps against the ever changing COVID dynamics. Thank you for continuing to be a stabilizing influence!
Thank you for your, as always, thorough and timely synthesis and analysis. My spouse and I (both science and data types) continue to rely on your newsletters as we watch the community around us swim in a sea of SARS-CoV-2 without realizing or caring what the real situation is. You help us stay informed!
Great info. Question- with the surge in local cities in Texas, but the variant booster coming in the fall, is it better to get a second booster (4th shot) now, or wait? And same question for kids 5-12 who have their full set but not a booster yet. It's going around my circle but I don't know that the current booster is much help. We do have a family member with health issues and we have avoided it so far.
We appreciate your posts so much! While I know it must feel like a Sisyphean task, your Covid posts are especially important in this time of pandemic fatigue, as it is increasingly difficult to find data and insights rooted in science upon which we can make informed decisions. Thank you so very much!!!
Separately, has anyone else had the unfortunate experience of having a botched vaccination with their little one? We waited so long for her time and I am so sad this happened. I personally do not think any vaccine made it in, but the woman administering felt like a little did. I’ve talked with her pediatrician and we have a plan. But just curious if anyone else has experienced this and what plan you were given? Thanks!
Quick Question: should we get our eight year old (who was vaccinated back in December) boosted now or wait for the Omicron specific booster in the Fall?
Your blog is amazing for those of us who run COVID response for large companies. I was wondering, for those of us non-epidemiologists whose brains are increasingly full - could you add in parentheses the plain name designation for the letter and number COVID designations, if there is one? My brain simply can't keep track of them. For example "BA.4 (Omicron 4)" or whatever Delta was. [Google: "B.1.617.2 (Delta)"]
If you do back of the napkin math, it is important to provide a range of estimates values with estimate probabilities. This isn’t 1980.
The easy work is capturing the data (what is available) and graphing it. The hard work is estimating the future. We know from past covid variants there is a surge of growth (increasing number of infections) and then it levels off – a bunch of folks get this variant and the rest do not.
We also need a metric of “inconvenience”. If I get COVID and it only lasts 2 days, no big deal. If it fatigues me for 3 weeks a major nuance. If it kills me – not good.
These are not observations / critiques for your material which is great. Always much obliged you take the time to write this material.
The health community needs to step up its game – the virus is running circles around it. I have done this for a very long time – complexity exists whether you ignore it or not. Best not to ignore it. My suggestion is the health community pull in folks from industry (either direct from a firm or one of the long standing firms) to provide an additional view. These folks are used to complexity.
What I've fallen back to for evaluation is looking first at TPR, then at the rate of testing (first derivative of # of tests over 7 days).Hospitalization is considered but the weight assigned is lower because of the lag, and similarly, ICU admissions. So far this has been an informal evaluation but I need to model it and see how it works out. Subjectively, it's been pretty good at indicating a new trend.
With Clay Jenkins' post yesterday, it seems the variants may already be here. Or at least in Dallas, where they've raised the Covid risk to yellow. Husband is immunocompromised, so I'm extremely worried we'll have to start isolating again. The whole thing just makes me so sad and frustrated.
A doctor in the family told those of us who got Covid on our Ireland vacation (3 of us) to avoid hard exercise or anything that would drive our heart rates up for the next month. I'll search your archives to see if you mention this. I've not heard anyone else say this. Thank you for this newsletter, Kaitlyn.
Given what we know & don't know about BA.5, this (The Boston Globe) makes me furious.
"Dr. Catherine Brown, a state epidemiologist at the Department of Public Health, said that residents were watching the movement of the pandemic on a “granular” level early in the pandemic. Now, 'We’re in a different time. We’re 2½ years later. We have the pharmaceutical tools. We have preventive tools,” like vaccines, antivirals, and monoclonal antibody treatments. Daily numbers aren’t going to affect the recommendations for people to use them, Brown said."
What can the lay person do to shake up the lack of public health leadership at all levels?
Here in the Bay Area, the BA2 wave was dropping after a mid-May peak and then the case counts leveled in June. Our local wastewater added in BA4/5 at that point and then you could see the upward BA5 slope nullifying the BA2 drop. However, the region's wastewater all showed a peak around June 25 -- remains TBD if July 4 weekend impacts this. But if that's the BA5 peak (still larger than Delta for sure, less than BA1 or 2), this seems to be good evidence of each wave creating some measure of immune response.
Related to immune response, is there any pediatric data on longer term efficacy (3+ months) for both the primary series and with the booster? I feel like this is one of the missing pieces as we look towards fall past the BA5 wave.
Oregon numbers reflect a slow but steady increase in hospitalizations. We seem to be at a plateau in new infections, which given our vaccination rates seems a little worrying. A lot of virus is obviously still out there circulating, mostly B.4/5 here but the psychology of pandemic weariness is making it harder to get the public actively involved. The broadcast media is still trying to keep the public informed but its major watchers are in an older demographic. I hope we just roll out a B.1 booster and start getting shots in arms.
I really appreciate your blog posts, especially about COVID. With public interest waning and with a decreased demand or public interest for updated information, it is becoming harder to find science based information I can count on. So thank you so much for your work; I am very grateful!
I really appreciate this as it’s become impossible to get accurate information with the lack of testing and most departments of health ramping down.
I just read that “ pandemic fatigue “ is overstated in the media and the people most at risk— front line, essential workers, people without paid sick leave, etc— are still very much interested in accurate information and how to keep themselves safe. Kaiser Family Foundation polls consistently show more people are still concerned but perceive that “back to normal “ is the norm, so they/ we think we’re in the minority of people who still recognize that the pandemic isn’t over. Information is power, and your information is so crucial. Thank you!
Dr. Jetelina, could you please, please just throw in a couple of sentences about Evusheld occasionally? I did a google search of your name + Evusheld, and nothing came up. Looks like you have never mentioned this medication for the immune-compromised. How about an occasional mention? The immune-compromised mostly feel ignored and written off in discussions of covid, vaccination, etc. Please don't participate in that trend. Evusheld is a bit of a niche topic, but not all THAT niche. Something like 3% of the population is immune-compromised enough to qualify for it. You have a large readership, and are in a position to make a difference in the general ignorance about Evusheld. Please look for opportunities to mention it once in a while. A couple sentences a month from you could make a real difference.
For the immune-compromised Evusheld is the only way to get "vaccinated." The stuff has been available for 6 months, and is being distributed at a slow trickle. The main barrier to people getting it is lack of information. Patients who qualify have no idea this option is available. Doctors are very underinformed. It was bought and distributed to states by the government, and so was not advertised in the usual way. No pharma reps gave talks about it to doctors at dinners, or dropped by their offices with brochures. Some doctors do not even know Evusheld exists. Some are grossly misinformed -- they think it is only available for people with extremely compromised immune systems, such as people who just had an organ transplant. That is not true. They think there is almost none available. That is also not true. In 6 months, only about 1/3 of what was ordered has been given to patients -- the rest is gathering dust on shelves.
For those who are curious about Evusheld: It is an injection that gives people a long-lasting supply of antibodies that combat covid. People whose immune system is damaged do not make antibodies when vaccinated, so an injection of Evusheld is the only way they can be given antibodies. The main barrier to people getting it is lack of information.
The volunteer organization I work for has an Evusheld guide available at https://rrelyea.github.io/evusheld/guide/. There's also a site that helps you search for sites offering Evusheld near you: rrelyea.github.io/evusheld/. Both sites are free and do not ask you to register.
Your ability to write clear and helpful updates helps against the ever changing COVID dynamics. Thank you for continuing to be a stabilizing influence!
Thank you for your, as always, thorough and timely synthesis and analysis. My spouse and I (both science and data types) continue to rely on your newsletters as we watch the community around us swim in a sea of SARS-CoV-2 without realizing or caring what the real situation is. You help us stay informed!
Great info. Question- with the surge in local cities in Texas, but the variant booster coming in the fall, is it better to get a second booster (4th shot) now, or wait? And same question for kids 5-12 who have their full set but not a booster yet. It's going around my circle but I don't know that the current booster is much help. We do have a family member with health issues and we have avoided it so far.
We appreciate your posts so much! While I know it must feel like a Sisyphean task, your Covid posts are especially important in this time of pandemic fatigue, as it is increasingly difficult to find data and insights rooted in science upon which we can make informed decisions. Thank you so very much!!!
Separately, has anyone else had the unfortunate experience of having a botched vaccination with their little one? We waited so long for her time and I am so sad this happened. I personally do not think any vaccine made it in, but the woman administering felt like a little did. I’ve talked with her pediatrician and we have a plan. But just curious if anyone else has experienced this and what plan you were given? Thanks!
Quick Question: should we get our eight year old (who was vaccinated back in December) boosted now or wait for the Omicron specific booster in the Fall?
Your blog is amazing for those of us who run COVID response for large companies. I was wondering, for those of us non-epidemiologists whose brains are increasingly full - could you add in parentheses the plain name designation for the letter and number COVID designations, if there is one? My brain simply can't keep track of them. For example "BA.4 (Omicron 4)" or whatever Delta was. [Google: "B.1.617.2 (Delta)"]
If you do back of the napkin math, it is important to provide a range of estimates values with estimate probabilities. This isn’t 1980.
The easy work is capturing the data (what is available) and graphing it. The hard work is estimating the future. We know from past covid variants there is a surge of growth (increasing number of infections) and then it levels off – a bunch of folks get this variant and the rest do not.
We also need a metric of “inconvenience”. If I get COVID and it only lasts 2 days, no big deal. If it fatigues me for 3 weeks a major nuance. If it kills me – not good.
These are not observations / critiques for your material which is great. Always much obliged you take the time to write this material.
The health community needs to step up its game – the virus is running circles around it. I have done this for a very long time – complexity exists whether you ignore it or not. Best not to ignore it. My suggestion is the health community pull in folks from industry (either direct from a firm or one of the long standing firms) to provide an additional view. These folks are used to complexity.
What I've fallen back to for evaluation is looking first at TPR, then at the rate of testing (first derivative of # of tests over 7 days).Hospitalization is considered but the weight assigned is lower because of the lag, and similarly, ICU admissions. So far this has been an informal evaluation but I need to model it and see how it works out. Subjectively, it's been pretty good at indicating a new trend.
Great points. Thank you.
With Clay Jenkins' post yesterday, it seems the variants may already be here. Or at least in Dallas, where they've raised the Covid risk to yellow. Husband is immunocompromised, so I'm extremely worried we'll have to start isolating again. The whole thing just makes me so sad and frustrated.
A doctor in the family told those of us who got Covid on our Ireland vacation (3 of us) to avoid hard exercise or anything that would drive our heart rates up for the next month. I'll search your archives to see if you mention this. I've not heard anyone else say this. Thank you for this newsletter, Kaitlyn.
Given what we know & don't know about BA.5, this (The Boston Globe) makes me furious.
"Dr. Catherine Brown, a state epidemiologist at the Department of Public Health, said that residents were watching the movement of the pandemic on a “granular” level early in the pandemic. Now, 'We’re in a different time. We’re 2½ years later. We have the pharmaceutical tools. We have preventive tools,” like vaccines, antivirals, and monoclonal antibody treatments. Daily numbers aren’t going to affect the recommendations for people to use them, Brown said."
What can the lay person do to shake up the lack of public health leadership at all levels?
Thx.
Here in the Bay Area, the BA2 wave was dropping after a mid-May peak and then the case counts leveled in June. Our local wastewater added in BA4/5 at that point and then you could see the upward BA5 slope nullifying the BA2 drop. However, the region's wastewater all showed a peak around June 25 -- remains TBD if July 4 weekend impacts this. But if that's the BA5 peak (still larger than Delta for sure, less than BA1 or 2), this seems to be good evidence of each wave creating some measure of immune response.
Related to immune response, is there any pediatric data on longer term efficacy (3+ months) for both the primary series and with the booster? I feel like this is one of the missing pieces as we look towards fall past the BA5 wave.
Oregon numbers reflect a slow but steady increase in hospitalizations. We seem to be at a plateau in new infections, which given our vaccination rates seems a little worrying. A lot of virus is obviously still out there circulating, mostly B.4/5 here but the psychology of pandemic weariness is making it harder to get the public actively involved. The broadcast media is still trying to keep the public informed but its major watchers are in an older demographic. I hope we just roll out a B.1 booster and start getting shots in arms.