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Chris Cleeland's avatar

This particular piece of writing needs to be an op-ed in major new outlets!

Every time I read one of your entries, I am reminded of how gifted you are at capturing the nuance in risk assessment that is so important for moving humanity forward with COVID's presence in the world. It's not binary--there is way more gray than black and white.

You are a gifted communicator, with an ability to convey complexity and--with a topic as polarized as covid responses--evaluate subjectively without judging others. I wish more people had access to and took the time to read your stuff, especially stuff like this.

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DM's avatar

"The individual risk of death from a COVID-19 infection is now close to the flu thanks to vaccines, immunity, and treatment.” Hey Katelyn, that’s not quite right in my opinion. The last numbers I saw from the CDC were 468 deaths a day or about 170,000 a year. Even if you look at the roughly 300+ it was averaging before the recent bump up, it would be near 110,000 a year. The CDC site showed the average deaths per year from flu in the 10 years prior to COVID, was about 30,000 with the worst of those years being 51,000. Don’t hold me precisely to those numbers but I am pretty sure I have them about right.By my arithmetic that means the “current” (468) COVID death rate is more than triple the risk of flu in its worst year and five and a half times the average flu rate. Using the lower number of 300 for COVID, of the last month or two, then the comparable relationships are over two, and about three and a half, times the numbers of flu deaths. I think that’s a lot more risky - not “close to". I make such a point of this because (1)for a long time I have been using that relationship as a benchmark for when I’d give up my extreme precautions and try to live a “normal” life again. I figure I could handle two times. I am older and thus the the death rates are doubtless higher in my bracket for both diseases, but, if the numbers are both understated than the relationship probably roughly holds and (2) I have seen/heard your comment or ones similar to it often enough to be bothered by it, since I think it makes light of what I consider to be justifiable cause for my (“paranoid") relatively extreme precautions.

PS Notwithstanding the above difference in opinion - one person’s “close to” can be another’s “much more” - I continue to respect, admire and appreciate the great work you are doing in communicating/educating us all.

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