Although it’s been less than a week since the global outbreak of monkeypox (MPX) gained traction, we’re already gathering important clues thanks to timely and incredible collaboration around the globe.
Your work is critical as a non-biased, factual report that one can send to non-medical family and friends as a document one can Trust to be based on facts and analysis, not political bias. I forward your work to many. D. Murphy, MD. FAAP and trained in pediatric infectious disease .
One of the very few avenues of human endeavor that has not been politicized is mathematics. From cosmology to quantum theory to Bayesian application in social science..the study of statistics and probability is the sine qua non for understanding phenomena including pandemics. But then I'm a "quant!"
Looking at the shifting numbers and employing something like ensemble forecasting, we see that the pandemic rang this planet like a bell, setting up disequilibria everywhere that will take some time to sort themselves out. This, even if the pandemic were to vanish today. We really took a hit and in effect the planet has long covid.
MPX hasn’t bubbled to the top of most news cycles in the past few days, given the public health crises manifested in the latest school shooting. Viewing the world through an epidemiological lens, it is necessary to keep a lot of balls in the air. I appreciate this morning’s report.
Thanks for recognizing this as it's challenging to juggle. There are several, concurrent public health story lines that are important to bring the public along for the ride. I will talk more about the school shooting and firearm violence, but I want to respect time for people to react and grieve. Sometimes statistics is just not what people need.
When will you have the next COVID update? It seems that the current variant is a lot more contagious. Friends and some family who have been mostly vigilant with vaccines and masking are catching it. Yesterday, Governor Jay Inslee who has been one of the most proactive politicians in fighting this announced that he had a case of it.
To me it feels like last July - everyone felt we had the vaccines and testing down and let down their guard. Then Delta arrived. But it also feels like 2020 before we even had a vaccine. Like back then, now anyone can catch it.
We remember well the stigmatization of Aids back in the eighties and the inhumane and cruel blunting of compassion that occurred even at the highest levels of government. Let's hope there is a different response this time and I expect better things from us. We've socially evolved since then.
Thank you so much for keeping us well informed. For those of us who received a smallpox vaccination as a child in the 60's does that vaccination still provide protection against MPX?
Firstly, congrats on your appearance on WNYC/Brian Lehrer Show - great job! Hope you’ll be doing that again! Thanks for an excellent fact/data driven summary of the current MPX situation.
Has there been any data indicating an association between these MPX cases and prior immunization against smallpox? (i.e., are these cases restricted to patients too young to have received the smallpox vaccine?) Any association with prior exposure to SARS-CoV2? (i.e., any indication that previous infection with SARS-CoV2 could be reducing the effectiveness of their immune response to MPX?)
There was a special on PBS about the bubonic plague in San Francisco “isolated” in china town and considered an Asian disease. It was a horrible political and medical cover up and the Asian community was isolated and treated unfairly. Does this sound familiar? It’s amazing how history continues to repeat.
It is impossible to isolate in the world today, to stop the spread of disease. It’s a global problem, not a sub population one. It seems that the focus should be on clean water, appropriate waste management, and ensuring people have food to eat. Good public health prevents disease.
what is odd to me too is the fact that it's more prominent you in the gay community. If it's close contact it should be similar to heterosexual. What am I missing there?
I've seen statements in articles that the rash in some people has been focused around the genitals first instead of the face. It would be interesting to know if MPX acts differently if it can be spread through sexual contact rather than droplets or residue into the lungs.
Your work is critical as a non-biased, factual report that one can send to non-medical family and friends as a document one can Trust to be based on facts and analysis, not political bias. I forward your work to many. D. Murphy, MD. FAAP and trained in pediatric infectious disease .
One of the very few avenues of human endeavor that has not been politicized is mathematics. From cosmology to quantum theory to Bayesian application in social science..the study of statistics and probability is the sine qua non for understanding phenomena including pandemics. But then I'm a "quant!"
Looking at the shifting numbers and employing something like ensemble forecasting, we see that the pandemic rang this planet like a bell, setting up disequilibria everywhere that will take some time to sort themselves out. This, even if the pandemic were to vanish today. We really took a hit and in effect the planet has long covid.
MPX hasn’t bubbled to the top of most news cycles in the past few days, given the public health crises manifested in the latest school shooting. Viewing the world through an epidemiological lens, it is necessary to keep a lot of balls in the air. I appreciate this morning’s report.
Thanks for recognizing this as it's challenging to juggle. There are several, concurrent public health story lines that are important to bring the public along for the ride. I will talk more about the school shooting and firearm violence, but I want to respect time for people to react and grieve. Sometimes statistics is just not what people need.
Thanks Dr. Jetelina!
When will you have the next COVID update? It seems that the current variant is a lot more contagious. Friends and some family who have been mostly vigilant with vaccines and masking are catching it. Yesterday, Governor Jay Inslee who has been one of the most proactive politicians in fighting this announced that he had a case of it.
To me it feels like last July - everyone felt we had the vaccines and testing down and let down their guard. Then Delta arrived. But it also feels like 2020 before we even had a vaccine. Like back then, now anyone can catch it.
We remember well the stigmatization of Aids back in the eighties and the inhumane and cruel blunting of compassion that occurred even at the highest levels of government. Let's hope there is a different response this time and I expect better things from us. We've socially evolved since then.
Thank you so much for keeping us well informed. For those of us who received a smallpox vaccination as a child in the 60's does that vaccination still provide protection against MPX?
Firstly, congrats on your appearance on WNYC/Brian Lehrer Show - great job! Hope you’ll be doing that again! Thanks for an excellent fact/data driven summary of the current MPX situation.
Has there been any data indicating an association between these MPX cases and prior immunization against smallpox? (i.e., are these cases restricted to patients too young to have received the smallpox vaccine?) Any association with prior exposure to SARS-CoV2? (i.e., any indication that previous infection with SARS-CoV2 could be reducing the effectiveness of their immune response to MPX?)
There was a special on PBS about the bubonic plague in San Francisco “isolated” in china town and considered an Asian disease. It was a horrible political and medical cover up and the Asian community was isolated and treated unfairly. Does this sound familiar? It’s amazing how history continues to repeat.
Thank you - as always - for providing such balanced and nuanced summaries.
It is impossible to isolate in the world today, to stop the spread of disease. It’s a global problem, not a sub population one. It seems that the focus should be on clean water, appropriate waste management, and ensuring people have food to eat. Good public health prevents disease.
what is odd to me too is the fact that it's more prominent you in the gay community. If it's close contact it should be similar to heterosexual. What am I missing there?
Hot off the MMWR press just now on the monkeypox and vaccination.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/71/wr/mm7122e1.htm
I've seen statements in articles that the rash in some people has been focused around the genitals first instead of the face. It would be interesting to know if MPX acts differently if it can be spread through sexual contact rather than droplets or residue into the lungs.