We’ve been using the same vaccine formula throughout the pandemic—one created in early 2020 to fight against the original Wuhan variant. But the virus continues to mutate quickly. This means our antibodies are waning fast and (re)infections are coming more often. Marry this with the fact that coronaviruses thrive in the winter, and we likely need an updated strategy going into the fall.
ER physician here. We are seeing trickles of COVID and a lot of Influenza-A right now. I’ve never seen Flu this late in the season; never in June. Some Flu cases vaccinated, some not. Why is this? My apology if you addressed this already in prior post. Mark/Tucson, AZ
Thanks as always for your clear, data-based postings.
As a social scientist, I will note that Brandolini's Law has been in play since the beginning of the epidemic (and actually, in a wide variety of science-denying efforts for decades, going back to debates about the health implications of cigarette smoking and beyond).
I think scientists still often tend to shrug their shoulders when confronted with obvious woo and dis/misinformation. It is difficult and painful, and frequently futile to try to counteract people's irrational beliefs. It often takes a life-changing experience for someone to change their mind, especially if they have publicly espoused a contra-factual position. Many people will literally die rather than change.
That said, I think there are a lot of good attempts (including yours) to provide accurate information. The problem is that science-based communications are trying to use logic, facts and rational thinking to counter emotional, "magical" disinformation. Critical thinking is a learned skill, that requires effort and the ability to admit you are wrong and that someone else might be right. It is hard work, and many people were not taught the necessary skills and are too tired/overworked/bombarded by deceptive messaging about everything in their life to have the strength of will to learn to be critical and apply the skill regularly.
Because our current vaccines are ineffective at preventing infection and transmission, plus skepticism is growing even among early enthusiasts, I’d be curious to know more about early treatments that are in the pipeline.
Paxlovid appears to be a good first start yet many doctors are now steering patients away from it due to rebound and the need to restart isolation, not to mention a long list of medications that are counter indicated. It’s crazy nobody knows just how often rebound occurs, but obviously it’s more than 2%, which likely causes a whole secondary wave of inadvertent transmission and infection. Add to that the Israeli study that suggests Paxlovid really only helps those over 65 avoid hospitalization and death.
Paxlovid is in short supply and is available only to a small number of the most vulnerable (over 65, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).
We need more therapeutics, ones that work against any variant, ones without rebound, ones that don’t inadvertently create more transmission.
My husband and I are in the 23% of those eligible who have gotten our second boosters (just within the past two weeks). When we got our first booster shots, in November 2021, I was confident they’d protect us during holiday season travel. But then, of course, the Omicron wave hit. So far we’ve avoided getting infected, but I’m less confident about the protective ability of our second boosters as we prepare for a summer road trip to visit family.
I’m willing to keep getting booster shots every few months if necessary, but because I’m one of those people who suffers debilitating flu-like symptoms for a day or two afterwards, I’d love to know that it’s worth it because the shots are actually protecting me.
Hi Katelyn, can you give an update on preventative covid measures like evushield? For our family, we have one member who is on rutuximab once a year for MS, and was eligible for and was eligible for a evushield set of shots in April. On the other end, we have a 5 year old ready to start school. I don't really know what to do. We kinda feel like our whole family needs to be in a bubble.
What do you see coming up for people like us, and how can we lower the risks?
Are neutralizing antibodies the goal? Or is it preventing hospitalization and death? Because as I understand it the vaccines are still protecting us quite well against the latter.
I appreciate the analysis, and the enumeration of the things we don't know.
My question is. . . at what point should we take the best available information, and just start making and distributing vaccines? I worry, particularly with the FDA, of analysis paralysis and they decide what the best choice is two months too late.
If it was me, I'd take Moderna's recommendation, and just start.
As a pediatrician, I agree with Dr Paul Offit that the goal should be to decrease hospitalizations and death and not trying to prevent a mucosal disease with yearly boosters. He thinks that the 3 dose series is enough to do this. I hope he's correct. Thanks for your excellent essays, as always.
Again, thank you. For me and I have been following the science as well as our own family doctors. We are eligible to be boosted and we are. My daughter and I got COVID in December and January. My dr has recommended that I wait until closer to the fall to receive my second boost. I am 52 and eligible. I know this differs from the broad message so it’s confusing and I can only imagine how confusing it is if you don’t have access to a regular physician.
"Why aren’t we leveraging social science as much as bench science to increase effectiveness of vaccine rollouts?"
In meteorology and severe storms, we know how to predict a severe event (tornado, large hail, damaging winds) pretty accurately and with sufficient lead time to allow the public to hear a warning and get into a safe room, yet so many of them recognize the issuance of a warning as a call to action to find that video camera and stand out unprotected and unprepared to get video of the storm.
With vaccinations, we're seeing the same things. The call to action (GET VACCINATED, YOU DOLT) is simple, straightforward and unambiguous. yet the uptake is non-trivial. NOAA's National Weather Service has spent years investigating this and while headway's been made, it's been slow. I have been involved in improving warnings and uptake, with NWS for nearly 20 years. and remain baffled by the problem.
NWS has had a big social media presence and exposure. Yet, I'm not convinced they've done all they could do to amp up the social medial data and (dare I say, "Training" and "Social Media" In the same sentence?) and attempt to train the public to the Call to Action when a weather warning (or a vaccine recommendation!) is issued.
We also have to deal with the degree of disinformation we're seeing and integrating. A friend of a friend on Instagram doesn't EVER constitute a trusted and reliable resource unless you know him, have checked him out, and have verified his background and potential action. And then you should be suspicious.
Interested to learn more about the new Sanofi vaccine, based on flu technology and is a vaccine company familiar with updating their platform every year and disturbing across the globe. Maybe a future post once more data is available?
ER physician here. We are seeing trickles of COVID and a lot of Influenza-A right now. I’ve never seen Flu this late in the season; never in June. Some Flu cases vaccinated, some not. Why is this? My apology if you addressed this already in prior post. Mark/Tucson, AZ
Thanks as always for your clear, data-based postings.
As a social scientist, I will note that Brandolini's Law has been in play since the beginning of the epidemic (and actually, in a wide variety of science-denying efforts for decades, going back to debates about the health implications of cigarette smoking and beyond).
I think scientists still often tend to shrug their shoulders when confronted with obvious woo and dis/misinformation. It is difficult and painful, and frequently futile to try to counteract people's irrational beliefs. It often takes a life-changing experience for someone to change their mind, especially if they have publicly espoused a contra-factual position. Many people will literally die rather than change.
That said, I think there are a lot of good attempts (including yours) to provide accurate information. The problem is that science-based communications are trying to use logic, facts and rational thinking to counter emotional, "magical" disinformation. Critical thinking is a learned skill, that requires effort and the ability to admit you are wrong and that someone else might be right. It is hard work, and many people were not taught the necessary skills and are too tired/overworked/bombarded by deceptive messaging about everything in their life to have the strength of will to learn to be critical and apply the skill regularly.
Thank you for this post.
Because our current vaccines are ineffective at preventing infection and transmission, plus skepticism is growing even among early enthusiasts, I’d be curious to know more about early treatments that are in the pipeline.
Paxlovid appears to be a good first start yet many doctors are now steering patients away from it due to rebound and the need to restart isolation, not to mention a long list of medications that are counter indicated. It’s crazy nobody knows just how often rebound occurs, but obviously it’s more than 2%, which likely causes a whole secondary wave of inadvertent transmission and infection. Add to that the Israeli study that suggests Paxlovid really only helps those over 65 avoid hospitalization and death.
Paxlovid is in short supply and is available only to a small number of the most vulnerable (over 65, immunocompromised, comorbidities, etc).
We need more therapeutics, ones that work against any variant, ones without rebound, ones that don’t inadvertently create more transmission.
When will “Test to Treat” be for EVERYONE?
"We can’t continue with a process that leaves kids constantly two years behind." AMEN.
My husband and I are in the 23% of those eligible who have gotten our second boosters (just within the past two weeks). When we got our first booster shots, in November 2021, I was confident they’d protect us during holiday season travel. But then, of course, the Omicron wave hit. So far we’ve avoided getting infected, but I’m less confident about the protective ability of our second boosters as we prepare for a summer road trip to visit family.
I’m willing to keep getting booster shots every few months if necessary, but because I’m one of those people who suffers debilitating flu-like symptoms for a day or two afterwards, I’d love to know that it’s worth it because the shots are actually protecting me.
Hi Katelyn, can you give an update on preventative covid measures like evushield? For our family, we have one member who is on rutuximab once a year for MS, and was eligible for and was eligible for a evushield set of shots in April. On the other end, we have a 5 year old ready to start school. I don't really know what to do. We kinda feel like our whole family needs to be in a bubble.
What do you see coming up for people like us, and how can we lower the risks?
Thanks.
Thanks again. You are the best!
Are neutralizing antibodies the goal? Or is it preventing hospitalization and death? Because as I understand it the vaccines are still protecting us quite well against the latter.
Very informative. I count on you to provide evidence-based information, and I will always respond positively.
I appreciate the analysis, and the enumeration of the things we don't know.
My question is. . . at what point should we take the best available information, and just start making and distributing vaccines? I worry, particularly with the FDA, of analysis paralysis and they decide what the best choice is two months too late.
If it was me, I'd take Moderna's recommendation, and just start.
As a pediatrician, I agree with Dr Paul Offit that the goal should be to decrease hospitalizations and death and not trying to prevent a mucosal disease with yearly boosters. He thinks that the 3 dose series is enough to do this. I hope he's correct. Thanks for your excellent essays, as always.
Again, thank you. For me and I have been following the science as well as our own family doctors. We are eligible to be boosted and we are. My daughter and I got COVID in December and January. My dr has recommended that I wait until closer to the fall to receive my second boost. I am 52 and eligible. I know this differs from the broad message so it’s confusing and I can only imagine how confusing it is if you don’t have access to a regular physician.
A very useful web resource on up to date covid vaccine development projects world wide is:
https://www.raps.org/news-and-articles/news-articles/2020/3/covid-19-vaccine-tracker
Recommend highly.
Thank you for all you do! I would be lost without you.
"Why aren’t we leveraging social science as much as bench science to increase effectiveness of vaccine rollouts?"
In meteorology and severe storms, we know how to predict a severe event (tornado, large hail, damaging winds) pretty accurately and with sufficient lead time to allow the public to hear a warning and get into a safe room, yet so many of them recognize the issuance of a warning as a call to action to find that video camera and stand out unprotected and unprepared to get video of the storm.
With vaccinations, we're seeing the same things. The call to action (GET VACCINATED, YOU DOLT) is simple, straightforward and unambiguous. yet the uptake is non-trivial. NOAA's National Weather Service has spent years investigating this and while headway's been made, it's been slow. I have been involved in improving warnings and uptake, with NWS for nearly 20 years. and remain baffled by the problem.
NWS has had a big social media presence and exposure. Yet, I'm not convinced they've done all they could do to amp up the social medial data and (dare I say, "Training" and "Social Media" In the same sentence?) and attempt to train the public to the Call to Action when a weather warning (or a vaccine recommendation!) is issued.
We also have to deal with the degree of disinformation we're seeing and integrating. A friend of a friend on Instagram doesn't EVER constitute a trusted and reliable resource unless you know him, have checked him out, and have verified his background and potential action. And then you should be suspicious.
Interested to learn more about the new Sanofi vaccine, based on flu technology and is a vaccine company familiar with updating their platform every year and disturbing across the globe. Maybe a future post once more data is available?