Case trends around the globe have made a u-turn and started increasing, specifically in Asian and European countries. The virus will continue to transmit and mutate, so a change in case trends shouldn’t be a surprise. We are also at a point in the pandemic where a rise in cases means something very different from country to country.
Thank you for that, especially the UK information. I’ve been on the cautious side and have only recently started doing a few of the things other people have been doing anyway (I actually went to a restaurant!), and I’m going on a flight next week. We really are pretending that the pandemic is over, and I have come to the conclusion that I should do what I can before my immunity decreases substantially, or before the next variant scuppers things. It looks like the next horseman of the apocalypse is thundering over the horizon, and I can’t control that with my personal behaviour.
You are absolutely phenomenal! I love your graphs and your explanations. And I realize that my next statement is not scientific but I believe that your daughters are absolutely blessed with the best💙
As for the potential April/May uptick, I’d love to hear your take on whether the rollout of Evusheld will affect that. My husband is now on the list to get it, and a friend who is a medical professional already got her first dose. They are both on ocrelizumab, so not the first “tier” of recipients, so I assume others who are more severely immuno-compromised are being treated now.
I swear, you read my mind with these post topics! I have been so worried about B.A.2 and needing some analysis. I would love to see a post, if possible, or even just a short comment, on your advice for those of us who are high-risk but not immunocompromised re: a second booster. I'm 6mo. out from mine and worrying that efficacy will wane as B.A.2 gains hold here and wondering if I should get another or wait until a more effective, pan-variant type vaccine is developed and/or until Fall when surges normally are worse. Any advice at all is SO appreciated.
Thank you for this. The country/regional profile comparison is helpful. Because we have had a lull in your great general summaries while you were focusing on the excellent Long Covid series, I am not clear what your view is of the BA.2 variant . You said you think the rapid rise in cases is due to BA.2. Are you seeing evidence that it is more contagious than BA.1 ? or more lethal? Or is the rapid increase in cases due to behavioral or other factors? Hope you have time to address these questions in a future column. Know you cannot reply to all comments!!
I'm so thankful for these updates. Information I can trust out-of-the-box, without having to sift through multiple sources trying to figure it out for myself. I'm curious if you (Katelyn) or anyone here has thoughts on https://www.microcovid.org/. My wife is immunocompromised and she leans heavily on it for determining what feels safe for us. It seems sound enough, but I don't really know how to truly evaluate its methodology.
For consideration re:a COVID-19 spike due to war in Ukraine. Rather than considering the potential for spike due to displaced persons from Ukraine, despite their abysmal vaccination rate, consider the potential for spread by Russian forces who also have a poor vaccination uptake rate, but are also using vaccines of lower efficacy. As we see more intermingling of Russian and Ukrainian forces, I anticipate a spike in COVID.
One other thing... I've been tracking, on a near random basis while I write some code to automate this, minor upticks in R(t) despite decreasing cases. I'm concerned over this. I haven't seen any discussion, before yours, of a potential issue arising in the US. Most of the concern for Asia in the press is less factual and appears to be along the lines of "Oh, wow! In Hong Kong the virus didn't get the memo it was supposed to be finished!".
Thanks for the state of affairs, I look forward to these as a cliff notes of all the headlines I see throughout the week!! Quick Q: What is the source for the ~45% of Americans have caught Omicron? Or is it just adding up the daily cases each multiplied by the CDC variant proportion percentage estimates, I assume?
Thank you, Katelyn, for another clear concise summary of current conditions. You mentioned that "people are just not testing anymore". It would be helpful to hear your thoughts on the the ways in which increased availability of at-home testing (the results of which are usually not reported) has affected the use of PCR tests at public-health agency sites, and how that in turn impacts our ability to collect population-level data.
Can you speak to the utility of sharing the percent of population with at least one dose of the vaccine? If we ultimately need three doses, is using one dose as a metric for reporting vaccine rates useful at all? I think it leads people to believe that one is better than none, even though one is still woefully short of protective.
Thank you so much for the valuable information you are providing about the Corona virus and related issues. I find it very informative. Your writing and in-depth coverage of the subject matter is greatly appreciated.
Thank you for that, especially the UK information. I’ve been on the cautious side and have only recently started doing a few of the things other people have been doing anyway (I actually went to a restaurant!), and I’m going on a flight next week. We really are pretending that the pandemic is over, and I have come to the conclusion that I should do what I can before my immunity decreases substantially, or before the next variant scuppers things. It looks like the next horseman of the apocalypse is thundering over the horizon, and I can’t control that with my personal behaviour.
You are absolutely phenomenal! I love your graphs and your explanations. And I realize that my next statement is not scientific but I believe that your daughters are absolutely blessed with the best💙
As for the potential April/May uptick, I’d love to hear your take on whether the rollout of Evusheld will affect that. My husband is now on the list to get it, and a friend who is a medical professional already got her first dose. They are both on ocrelizumab, so not the first “tier” of recipients, so I assume others who are more severely immuno-compromised are being treated now.
I swear, you read my mind with these post topics! I have been so worried about B.A.2 and needing some analysis. I would love to see a post, if possible, or even just a short comment, on your advice for those of us who are high-risk but not immunocompromised re: a second booster. I'm 6mo. out from mine and worrying that efficacy will wane as B.A.2 gains hold here and wondering if I should get another or wait until a more effective, pan-variant type vaccine is developed and/or until Fall when surges normally are worse. Any advice at all is SO appreciated.
I really appreciate you breaking down this information into understandable terms, thank you so much, you are doing good work!
Thank you for this. The country/regional profile comparison is helpful. Because we have had a lull in your great general summaries while you were focusing on the excellent Long Covid series, I am not clear what your view is of the BA.2 variant . You said you think the rapid rise in cases is due to BA.2. Are you seeing evidence that it is more contagious than BA.1 ? or more lethal? Or is the rapid increase in cases due to behavioral or other factors? Hope you have time to address these questions in a future column. Know you cannot reply to all comments!!
I'm so thankful for these updates. Information I can trust out-of-the-box, without having to sift through multiple sources trying to figure it out for myself. I'm curious if you (Katelyn) or anyone here has thoughts on https://www.microcovid.org/. My wife is immunocompromised and she leans heavily on it for determining what feels safe for us. It seems sound enough, but I don't really know how to truly evaluate its methodology.
For consideration re:a COVID-19 spike due to war in Ukraine. Rather than considering the potential for spike due to displaced persons from Ukraine, despite their abysmal vaccination rate, consider the potential for spread by Russian forces who also have a poor vaccination uptake rate, but are also using vaccines of lower efficacy. As we see more intermingling of Russian and Ukrainian forces, I anticipate a spike in COVID.
One other thing... I've been tracking, on a near random basis while I write some code to automate this, minor upticks in R(t) despite decreasing cases. I'm concerned over this. I haven't seen any discussion, before yours, of a potential issue arising in the US. Most of the concern for Asia in the press is less factual and appears to be along the lines of "Oh, wow! In Hong Kong the virus didn't get the memo it was supposed to be finished!".
We so appreciate your expertise and your outreach. Thank you!
Thanks for the state of affairs, I look forward to these as a cliff notes of all the headlines I see throughout the week!! Quick Q: What is the source for the ~45% of Americans have caught Omicron? Or is it just adding up the daily cases each multiplied by the CDC variant proportion percentage estimates, I assume?
Thank you, Katelyn, for another clear concise summary of current conditions. You mentioned that "people are just not testing anymore". It would be helpful to hear your thoughts on the the ways in which increased availability of at-home testing (the results of which are usually not reported) has affected the use of PCR tests at public-health agency sites, and how that in turn impacts our ability to collect population-level data.
Can you speak to the utility of sharing the percent of population with at least one dose of the vaccine? If we ultimately need three doses, is using one dose as a metric for reporting vaccine rates useful at all? I think it leads people to believe that one is better than none, even though one is still woefully short of protective.
Thank you so much for the valuable information you are providing about the Corona virus and related issues. I find it very informative. Your writing and in-depth coverage of the subject matter is greatly appreciated.
Julie Nathanson
A couple months of relative freedom, at least. Good. Make hay while the sun shines.
Obligatory masking went in Ireland on Feb 28th and the cases have been going up and up. It does feel like an own-goal.
Another great one from you!