Thank you for sharing important info. In order to avoid muddying an issue, perhaps there's another term to use for clarity, like immunity gap or something that removes the word immunity altogether, since that's not really the process? Thanks for your diligent work.
New here. (Brought over by recommendation of the excellent Broadwaybabyto.) I loved your breakdown of "Make America Healthy Again." Always appreciate it when someone gets "organic" right. But I have a question (which I'm sure you've answered before but I don't see where to find the answer):
When you say COVID-19 levels are low, what's that based on? Most places aren't testing for COVID anymore, and no one is reporting their RAT results to anywhere other than maybe social media.
For example: Back in August, I thought I was having a flare (I have a bunch of chronic issues and if anything goes wrong with one it tends to make everything else worse). It wasn't until a week into it that it occurred to me to test at all, and I'm far more COVID cautious than anyone around me. (I never stopped masking.) Of course the RAT was negative by then, but I still suspect it was my first ever bout of COVID. If so, it would have come from my niece, who visited unmasked. She was asymptomatic and never tested. So that would be at least two COVID infections that were entirely unreported.
Are hospitals even testing most patients for COVID anymore? Many places have stopped wastewater testing.
How can you say that COVID rates are low and on the decline if no one is testing?
My guess is she's relying on wastewater. No one needs to report individual tests for them to appear in wastewater. I know in my part of the country, wastewater is very low right now. That's the metric I'd rely on for information. Wastewater will show what's happening regardless of whether or not individuals are taking tests.
It has. Hospitals are still testing, at least on intake, because my husband was tested at the ER recently (he's fine). All we can do is hope that the wastewater testing is representative. And pester our electeds to add more of it.
Wastewater reports used to model estimated infection rates. It isn't perfect, but these can be compared with current reported numbers from hospitals and the last 4 years of wastewater and case records to make a fairly accurate picture of where we are. Follow @JPWeiland on Xitter
I'm concerned about telling people to "enjoy the lull" in COVID. (What does that mean, anyway?) Data always lags behind actual infections, so by the time data indicates the "lull" is over, infections are already up. I think it would be better to report that infections are down and leave it at that, and people will decide if/how they want to respond.
"California is actively looking for H5N1, and it’s reflected in the numbers." NOT TRUE! California Department of Agriculture and CDPH certainly were forewarned by H5N1 spreading across the nation, but not in California until the end of August. Nonetheless, there was no active surveillance screening program by either agency. Thus in the last 6 weeks there has been an explosive spread among dairy herds, with many cattle fatalities. There 6+ human cases, but at last count CDPH said they had only tested 25 farm workers. There is a shortage of lab capacity and lab tests are backed up. There is now a quarantine and bulk milk testing for 10 miles around infected farms, but still NO population based epidemiological disease surveillance among dairy cows or people, exposed or otherwise. The explosive spread was probably from contaminated farm workers going from herd to herd. This is a massive public health failure. Let's pray that, in spite of over 100 petri dishes, influenza A H5N1 does not develop more capacity infect and cause serious disease in humans.
Have you heard anything about a spike in walking pneumonia cases among children? I live in Northern Virginia and practically everyone I know has either had kids with WP (myself included) or has a friend whose kids have had it. When I took my 4 year old in the doctors said they’ve been seeing it like crazy.
Our elementary had “atypical” pneumonia going around for 6 weeks. A few kids wound up in the hospital. Many were out of school for over a week. Z pak turned out to be the RX that would knock it back. My ER doc friend says she’s seeing tons of it. Of course these are just anecdotes from Austin… but we’ve had so much pneumonia, Covid, and most recently Flu A I wonder how it’s not showing up in the data.
What are people actually doing when they find H5N1? It's spreading like crazy but I also understand we can't just kill millions of cows, for multiple reasons. What should places be doing (besides actively looking for it)?
I love your post. Could you comment about the risks and benefits of getting vaccinated during pregnancy. Is one trimester better than others for vaccination. Is it safe for the baby/fetus
Thank you! When you report out trends in Covid, Flu, RSV or any other illness, where are you finding your data? Many people test at home and don’t report to any doctor or agency. I purchased combo Covid/Flu A/Flu B tests over the counter recently from CVS when my son’s 2nd grade class was hit by Flu. Group chat math with the moms along with teacher feedback told us that a third of the kids had Flu A, but most tested at home and wouldn’t have reported that data anywhere. I feel like you explained this years ago but a)I don’t remember what you said and b)things may have changed about the process.
Wastewater can detect all of these viruses. People don't need to be reporting on an individual level for viruses to be detectable in wastewater, so my guess is that's the metric Dr. Jetelina and other reports use to determine how much is circulating. The WastewaterSCAN website, for instance, has charts for covid, flu, RSV, norovirus, human metapneumovirus, and others.
People don't need to have reported tests (or have tested at all) for wastewater to show what's circulating at a given time.
This is a great resource. For my zip code in Austin, TX, the closest collection that comes up is the Woodlands, TX near Houston… 3 hours away. I had a feeling that Austin doesn’t participate. Regardless, this seems like an ideal way to gather info.
Thanks for all of your work and content! I am confused how Covid-19 can be considered at "low" level because when I look at the WastewaterSCAN data for the pandemic, we are at a higher level than the first four peaks in the pandemic and last summer's peak. How is "low" being defined? Can we expect a changing baseline?
Every time I read these I'm just so grateful for your and your colleagues' work!
Thank you for sharing important info. In order to avoid muddying an issue, perhaps there's another term to use for clarity, like immunity gap or something that removes the word immunity altogether, since that's not really the process? Thanks for your diligent work.
https://healthjournalism.org/blog/2022/12/why-using-the-term-immunity-debt-is-problematic-for-reporters/
I am curious on your thoughts on the probability of getting Guillain Barre from RSV vaccination.
New here. (Brought over by recommendation of the excellent Broadwaybabyto.) I loved your breakdown of "Make America Healthy Again." Always appreciate it when someone gets "organic" right. But I have a question (which I'm sure you've answered before but I don't see where to find the answer):
When you say COVID-19 levels are low, what's that based on? Most places aren't testing for COVID anymore, and no one is reporting their RAT results to anywhere other than maybe social media.
For example: Back in August, I thought I was having a flare (I have a bunch of chronic issues and if anything goes wrong with one it tends to make everything else worse). It wasn't until a week into it that it occurred to me to test at all, and I'm far more COVID cautious than anyone around me. (I never stopped masking.) Of course the RAT was negative by then, but I still suspect it was my first ever bout of COVID. If so, it would have come from my niece, who visited unmasked. She was asymptomatic and never tested. So that would be at least two COVID infections that were entirely unreported.
Are hospitals even testing most patients for COVID anymore? Many places have stopped wastewater testing.
How can you say that COVID rates are low and on the decline if no one is testing?
My guess is she's relying on wastewater. No one needs to report individual tests for them to appear in wastewater. I know in my part of the country, wastewater is very low right now. That's the metric I'd rely on for information. Wastewater will show what's happening regardless of whether or not individuals are taking tests.
I’m aware of wastewater testing. But I thought it had been discontinued in many parts of the country.
It has. Hospitals are still testing, at least on intake, because my husband was tested at the ER recently (he's fine). All we can do is hope that the wastewater testing is representative. And pester our electeds to add more of it.
Wastewater reports used to model estimated infection rates. It isn't perfect, but these can be compared with current reported numbers from hospitals and the last 4 years of wastewater and case records to make a fairly accurate picture of where we are. Follow @JPWeiland on Xitter
I'm concerned about telling people to "enjoy the lull" in COVID. (What does that mean, anyway?) Data always lags behind actual infections, so by the time data indicates the "lull" is over, infections are already up. I think it would be better to report that infections are down and leave it at that, and people will decide if/how they want to respond.
"California is actively looking for H5N1, and it’s reflected in the numbers." NOT TRUE! California Department of Agriculture and CDPH certainly were forewarned by H5N1 spreading across the nation, but not in California until the end of August. Nonetheless, there was no active surveillance screening program by either agency. Thus in the last 6 weeks there has been an explosive spread among dairy herds, with many cattle fatalities. There 6+ human cases, but at last count CDPH said they had only tested 25 farm workers. There is a shortage of lab capacity and lab tests are backed up. There is now a quarantine and bulk milk testing for 10 miles around infected farms, but still NO population based epidemiological disease surveillance among dairy cows or people, exposed or otherwise. The explosive spread was probably from contaminated farm workers going from herd to herd. This is a massive public health failure. Let's pray that, in spite of over 100 petri dishes, influenza A H5N1 does not develop more capacity infect and cause serious disease in humans.
my oh my, thanks for this comment.
Have you heard anything about a spike in walking pneumonia cases among children? I live in Northern Virginia and practically everyone I know has either had kids with WP (myself included) or has a friend whose kids have had it. When I took my 4 year old in the doctors said they’ve been seeing it like crazy.
Our elementary had “atypical” pneumonia going around for 6 weeks. A few kids wound up in the hospital. Many were out of school for over a week. Z pak turned out to be the RX that would knock it back. My ER doc friend says she’s seeing tons of it. Of course these are just anecdotes from Austin… but we’ve had so much pneumonia, Covid, and most recently Flu A I wonder how it’s not showing up in the data.
I wish you had mentioned how often the RSV vaccine needs to be administered. Annually? Biannually? Once in a blue moon?
I got mine last year but not this year yet.
it is now just one time.
What are people actually doing when they find H5N1? It's spreading like crazy but I also understand we can't just kill millions of cows, for multiple reasons. What should places be doing (besides actively looking for it)?
I love your post. Could you comment about the risks and benefits of getting vaccinated during pregnancy. Is one trimester better than others for vaccination. Is it safe for the baby/fetus
Great round-up! Is there any tracking of the common cold, and does it generally have a “season”?
Thank you, as always
Thank you! When you report out trends in Covid, Flu, RSV or any other illness, where are you finding your data? Many people test at home and don’t report to any doctor or agency. I purchased combo Covid/Flu A/Flu B tests over the counter recently from CVS when my son’s 2nd grade class was hit by Flu. Group chat math with the moms along with teacher feedback told us that a third of the kids had Flu A, but most tested at home and wouldn’t have reported that data anywhere. I feel like you explained this years ago but a)I don’t remember what you said and b)things may have changed about the process.
Thank you!
Wastewater can detect all of these viruses. People don't need to be reporting on an individual level for viruses to be detectable in wastewater, so my guess is that's the metric Dr. Jetelina and other reports use to determine how much is circulating. The WastewaterSCAN website, for instance, has charts for covid, flu, RSV, norovirus, human metapneumovirus, and others.
People don't need to have reported tests (or have tested at all) for wastewater to show what's circulating at a given time.
This is a great resource. For my zip code in Austin, TX, the closest collection that comes up is the Woodlands, TX near Houston… 3 hours away. I had a feeling that Austin doesn’t participate. Regardless, this seems like an ideal way to gather info.
Thanks for all of your work and content! I am confused how Covid-19 can be considered at "low" level because when I look at the WastewaterSCAN data for the pandemic, we are at a higher level than the first four peaks in the pandemic and last summer's peak. How is "low" being defined? Can we expect a changing baseline?
I love these newsletters. Please keep it up.
I really appreciate these updates. Thank you