For the first time since mid-summer, all indicators (test positivity rate, cases, hospitalizations, deaths) in the United States are decreasing. A welcome ending to this Delta wave. And while some states are still experiencing upswings (Alaska & North Dakota), the early Delta leaders continue to recover.
I've not reviewed the Lancet article regarding immunity. Last paper I can recall on the subject, I was willing to accept an 8 month median value; 16 months is a bit of a game changer. IF it is correct. A consideration is that we do not yet have studies that will tell us what Delta did for immune response and cellular activation.
I think we're looking at a minimum of 4-6 months of relative quiet, or, 4-6 months where the public can think we've beaten the virus and drop all precautions, stop getting vaccinated and then wonder what hit them when the next variant arrives. We have to recall that only a fraction of the world's population is fully vaccinated, leaving a significant breeding ground for new variants. Statistically, some of those have to be evolutionarily better adapted to transmission and infection than what we've seen, and some will likely have protein conformational changes that affect how our existing antibodies respond.
We also have the quandary that the public now expects (I don't know why) sterilizing immunity to ALL variants of COVID-19 rather than protection from significant disease and death. I expect the next wave to be accompanied with complaints that we (scientists) missed the mark again.
Thank you for mentioning Michigan. I am in the Mitten State and am wondering why our Delta numbers are lagging behind ... I fear that our wave is just building. Our vaccination rate is close to Alaska's and I am thinking we'll fare no better. It's a tight race to see if my 8 year old grandson can get the vaccine before getting Delta ... very disappointing to see that the pediatric vaccine discussion pushed back.
My daughters and I were praying before school this morning and my 11 year old prayed it would be ready for her soon and that it would not be some kind of trend for people not to get vaccinated. They just have to approve it for the kids.
Thank you for always providing easy to understand insights into where things stand from a population perspective. I'm cautiously optimistic that we will see progress in 2022. How widespread do we expect COVID vaccine requirements for students?
I feel so nervous that giving the wave decreasing pediatric vaccines will not be approved. I’d love to hear your thoughts, especially since this is different than what was touted in the media in the weeks leading up “shots in arms by Halloween” is clearly not happening. I still want to try to avoid my children getting this while unvaccinated due to age. Will factors like, exposure at later ages when unvaccinated be considered?
I would like to address the term “seasonality”. I live in Massachusetts, my parents live in Florida. My observation has been that every time Massachusetts spiked, Florida was not bad, and Florida would spike and Massachusetts not bad… so we could not see each other for a long time. So what defines a season in the US? If the virus is more transmissible in air than on surfaces, perhaps the season is when the weather is so hot outside in Florida you are in AC indoors or the weather is cold in Massachusetts you stay indoors with the heat on. Maybe the focus needs to be on better building ventilation systems.
Thanks for the summary. While I am no epidemiologist, the explanations you offered fit with my hypotheses about contributing factors to the wave phenomenon. On a related but slightly tangential note - I was just reading about vaccine "patches" being developed that are much more efficient at generating immune response. Now just for mice, but the inventors seem to have the manufacturing process (3-D printing) figured out, so maybe in the next year or so we can get a "multi-patch" for COVID, Flu and whatever else we need to get vaxed for. :-)
Couldn't the waves be illusory? Before smoothing them out using rolling 7 day averages, these are extremely bumpy functions. Surely it makes sense to do a Fourier decomposition first, before speculating about such patterns.
Hey YLE, thanks as always for the quality updates. Really appreciated. May I suggest an edit in the update above, please add the word unvaccinated as indicated: "So if the majority of UNVACCINATED Americans were naturally infected in the 3rd and 4th waves of this pandemic"
Question: Do you think these findings will bolster the claims of those trying to rely on natural immunity as opposed to getting the vaccine? I am well aware that "natural" immunity is far too dangerous to rely upon, I am fully vaccinated, but for the "won't ever get vaccinated" folks?
I've not reviewed the Lancet article regarding immunity. Last paper I can recall on the subject, I was willing to accept an 8 month median value; 16 months is a bit of a game changer. IF it is correct. A consideration is that we do not yet have studies that will tell us what Delta did for immune response and cellular activation.
I think we're looking at a minimum of 4-6 months of relative quiet, or, 4-6 months where the public can think we've beaten the virus and drop all precautions, stop getting vaccinated and then wonder what hit them when the next variant arrives. We have to recall that only a fraction of the world's population is fully vaccinated, leaving a significant breeding ground for new variants. Statistically, some of those have to be evolutionarily better adapted to transmission and infection than what we've seen, and some will likely have protein conformational changes that affect how our existing antibodies respond.
We also have the quandary that the public now expects (I don't know why) sterilizing immunity to ALL variants of COVID-19 rather than protection from significant disease and death. I expect the next wave to be accompanied with complaints that we (scientists) missed the mark again.
Thank you for mentioning Michigan. I am in the Mitten State and am wondering why our Delta numbers are lagging behind ... I fear that our wave is just building. Our vaccination rate is close to Alaska's and I am thinking we'll fare no better. It's a tight race to see if my 8 year old grandson can get the vaccine before getting Delta ... very disappointing to see that the pediatric vaccine discussion pushed back.
My daughters and I were praying before school this morning and my 11 year old prayed it would be ready for her soon and that it would not be some kind of trend for people not to get vaccinated. They just have to approve it for the kids.
Thank you for always providing easy to understand insights into where things stand from a population perspective. I'm cautiously optimistic that we will see progress in 2022. How widespread do we expect COVID vaccine requirements for students?
I feel so nervous that giving the wave decreasing pediatric vaccines will not be approved. I’d love to hear your thoughts, especially since this is different than what was touted in the media in the weeks leading up “shots in arms by Halloween” is clearly not happening. I still want to try to avoid my children getting this while unvaccinated due to age. Will factors like, exposure at later ages when unvaccinated be considered?
I would like to address the term “seasonality”. I live in Massachusetts, my parents live in Florida. My observation has been that every time Massachusetts spiked, Florida was not bad, and Florida would spike and Massachusetts not bad… so we could not see each other for a long time. So what defines a season in the US? If the virus is more transmissible in air than on surfaces, perhaps the season is when the weather is so hot outside in Florida you are in AC indoors or the weather is cold in Massachusetts you stay indoors with the heat on. Maybe the focus needs to be on better building ventilation systems.
Great article. Tough to sit in late December read an early October post hoping that Delta was the last wave....
Thanks for the summary. While I am no epidemiologist, the explanations you offered fit with my hypotheses about contributing factors to the wave phenomenon. On a related but slightly tangential note - I was just reading about vaccine "patches" being developed that are much more efficient at generating immune response. Now just for mice, but the inventors seem to have the manufacturing process (3-D printing) figured out, so maybe in the next year or so we can get a "multi-patch" for COVID, Flu and whatever else we need to get vaxed for. :-)
Couldn't the waves be illusory? Before smoothing them out using rolling 7 day averages, these are extremely bumpy functions. Surely it makes sense to do a Fourier decomposition first, before speculating about such patterns.
Hey YLE, thanks as always for the quality updates. Really appreciated. May I suggest an edit in the update above, please add the word unvaccinated as indicated: "So if the majority of UNVACCINATED Americans were naturally infected in the 3rd and 4th waves of this pandemic"
Question: Do you think these findings will bolster the claims of those trying to rely on natural immunity as opposed to getting the vaccine? I am well aware that "natural" immunity is far too dangerous to rely upon, I am fully vaccinated, but for the "won't ever get vaccinated" folks?